An Analysis of the Relationship Between Taxation and Democracy: The Example of European Union Member and Candidate Countries (2010-2020)

Abstract

The aim of this study is to examine the causal relationship between the level of democratization and tax revenues in the period of 2010- 2020 in 33 European Union (EU) member and candidate countries. The causal relationships between the variables were tested with the Emirmahmutoğlu-Köse (2011) panel causality test based on the Toda–Yamamoto (1995) test. According to the results of the analysis, bidirectional causal relationships were determined between the level of democratization and tax revenues based on the relevant countries and period throughout the panel. When evaluating the country-based causality results, one-way causal relationships from democratization level to tax revenues were found in Albania, Greece, Ireland, Moldova and North Macedonia; one-way causality from tax revenues to democratization level was found in Croatia, Cyprus, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Romania, and Slovenia; and bidirectional causal relationships were found between the level of democratization and tax revenues in Poland and Ukraine. In addition, no causal relationships were found between tax revenues and the level of democratization in Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Latvia, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Slovakia, Sweden, Serbia, or Türkiye. The empirical findings of the study indicate the causal relationship between the level of democratization and tax revenues to differ due to such things as the political, economic, social, and institutional characteristics of the countries.

Keywords

• Taxation
• Democratization
• Panel causality test
• European Union
• Tax policy

Vergilendirme ve Demokrasi İlişkisinin Analizi: Avrupa Birliğine Üye ve Aday Ülkeler Örneği (2010-2020)

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Avrupa Birliğine (AB) üye ve aday 33 ülkede 2010-2020 döneminde demokratikleşme düzeyi ile vergi gelirleri arasındaki nedensel ilişkiyi incelemektir. Değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi Toda–Yamamoto (1995) testine dayanan Emirmahmutoğlu-Köse (2011) panel nedensellik testi ile sınanmıştır. Analiz sonuçlarına göre, panel genelinde ilgili ülke ve dönem temelinde demokratikleşme düzeyi ve vergi gelirleri arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Ülke bazlı nedensellik sonuçları değerlendirildiğinde, Arnavutluk, Yunanistan, İrlanda, Moldova ve Kuzey Makedonya’da demokratikleşme düzeyinden vergi gelirlerine doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi, tam aksine Hırvatistan, Kıbrıs, Litvanya, Lüksemburg, Malta, Romanya ve Slovenya’da ise vergi gelirlerinden demokratikleşme düzeyine doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi, Polonya ve Ukrayna’da ise demokratikleşme düzeyi ve vergi gelirleri arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca, Avusturya, Belçika, Bulgaristan, Çekya, Danimarka, Estonya, Finlandiya, Fransa, Almanya, Macaristan, İtalya, Letonya, Hollanda, Portekiz, İspanya, Slovakya, İsveç, Sırbistan ve Türkiye’de ise vergi gelirleri ile demokratikleşme düzeyi arasında herhangi bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmamıştır. Araştırmanın ampirik bulguları ülkelerin siyasal, ekonomik, sosyal, kurumsal vb. özelliklerinden kaynaklı olarak demokratikleşme düzeyi ile vergi gelirleri arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisinin farklılaştığına işaret etmektedir.

Keywords

• Vergilendirme
• Demokratikleşme
• Panel nedensellik testi
• Avrupa Birliği
• Vergi politikası

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