The spillover effects of economic policy uncertainty on Turkish Unemployment

Year 2024, , 226 - 241, 13.08.2024

Ahmet Güney , Mustafa Karakuş , Nuriye Güney

https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1367951

Abstract

Türkiye is a small open economy with free capital mobility; therefore, it may be subject to international transmission of economic policy uncertainty shocks. This study seeks to determine whether foreign economic policy uncertainties drive unemployment fluctuations in Türkiye. We investigate the spillover effects of global and regional economic policy uncertainty indexes and local variables on the Turkish labour market. The study’s main findings show that unemployment is the highest net information receiver under full and rolling sample analysis. The findings also indicate that United States policy uncertainty affects interest rates and inflation through the capital channel. In contrast, European Union and Germany-induced effects affect industrial production and unemployment through the trade channel. The effect of policy uncertainty in EU countries is stronger on unemployment. Local factors influence unemployment more than global factors. Taking steps to control local factors would be beneficial for employment continuity by policymakers.

Keywords

Economic policy uncertainty (EPU), Spillover effects, Unemployment, Labour market

Ekonomi Politikası Belirsizliğinin Türkiye’de İşsizlik Üzerindeki Yayılma Etkileri

Abstract

Türkiye serbest sermaye hareketliliğine sahip küçük bir açık ekonomi olması nedeniyle ekonomi politikası belirsizliği şoklarının uluslararası aktarımına maruz kalabilmektedir. Bu çalışma, dış kaynaklı ekonomi politika belirsizliklerinin Türkiye’deki işsizlik oranındaki dalgalanmaların itici gücü olup olmadığını cevaplamayı amaçlamaktadır. Küresel ve bölgesel ekonomi politikası belirsizlik endeksleri ile yerel göstergelerin Türkiye işgücü piyasası üzerindeki yayılma etkileri araştırılmaktadır. Çalışmanın temel bulguları, tam ve yuvarlanan (dalgalanan) örneklem analizleri altında işsizliğin en yüksek net bilgi alıcısı olduğunu göstermektedir. Bulgular ayrıca, ABD kaynaklı politika belirsizliklerinin faiz oranlarını ve enflasyonu sermaye kanalı üzerinden etkilediğine işaret etmektedir. Buna karşılık, AB ve Almanya kaynaklı etkiler sanayi üretimi ve işsizliği ticaret kanalı üzerinden etkilemektedir. AB bölgelerindeki politika belirsizliğinin işsizlik üzerindeki etkisi daha güçlüdür. İşsizlik, küresel faktörlerden ziyade yerel faktörlerden daha fazla etkilenmektedir. Politika yapıcıların yerel faktörleri kontrol etmeye yönelik adımlar atması istihdamın sürekliliği açısından faydalı olacaktır.

Keywords

Ekonomi politika belirsizliği (EPU), Yayılma etkileri, İşsizlik, İşgücü piyasası

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