The Impact of Tourism Activities on Carbon Emissions: Evidence Using a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression Model

Year 2025, Volume: 12 Issue: 1, 238 - 257, 14.02.2025

Abdurrahman Çatık , Esra Ballı , Coşkun Akdeniz , Cihan Çobanoğlu , Mohamad Husam Helmi

https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1542059

Abstract

This article examines the impact of tourism activities, economic growth, and energy demand on environmental degradation in Turkey using Primiceri’s (2005) time-varying parameter structural vector autoregression model for the period 1991:Q1 to 2020:Q1. The findings from the linear VAR model indicate that the response of carbon emissions to shocks in tourism activity is negative and significant. However, the time-varying responses show that the impact of tourism activities on environmental degradation varies over time but is not significant for most analysis period. The insignificant impact of tourism on carbon emissions implies that the tourism sector can be supported by policymakers without harming the environment. Furthermore, our findings on the positive and significant timevarying impact of tourism activities on economic growth support the validity of the tourism-led growth hypothesis.

JEL Classification : C32 , Q50 , Z30

Keywords

Tourism , CO2 Emissions , Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression Model

References

• Akadiri, S. S., & Akadiri, A. C. (2021). Examining the Causal Relationship Between Tourism, Exchange Rate, and Economic Growth in Tourism Island States: Evidence from Second-Generation Panel. International Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Administration, 22(3), 235-250 google scholar
• Akadiri, S. S., Akadiri, A. C., & Alola, U. V. (2019). Is There Growth Impact of Tourism? Evidence from Selected Small Island States. Current Issues in Tourism, 22(12), 1480-1498 google scholar
• Akadiri, S. S., Alola, A. A., & Uzuner, G. (2020a). Economic Policy Uncertainty and Tourism: Evidence from the Heterogeneous Panel. Current Issues in Tourism, 23(20), 2507-2514 google scholar
• Akadiri, S. S., Lasisi, T. T., Uzuner, G., & Akadiri, A. C. (2020b). Examining the Causal Impacts of Tourism, Globalization, Economic Growth and Carbon Emissions in Tourism Island Territories: Bootstrap Panel Granger Causality Analysis. Current Issues in Tourism, 23(4), 470-484 google scholar
• Algieri, B., Füg, O., & Lombardo, R. (2022). The Italian Journey: Carbon Dioxide Emissions, The Role of Tourism and Other Economic and Climate Drivers. Journal of Cleaner Production, 375, 134144 google scholar
• Amelung, B., Nicholls, S., & Viner, D. (2007). Implications of Global Climate Change for Tourism Flows and Seasonality. Journal of Travel Research, 45(3), 285-296 google scholar
• Anser, M. K., Yousaf, Z., Nassani, A. A., Abro, M. M. Q., & Zaman, K. (2020). International Tourism, Social Distribution, and Environmental Kuznets Curve: Evidence from a Panel of G-7 Countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27(3), 2707-2720 google scholar
• Aslan, A. (2014). Tourism Development and Economic Growth in the Mediterranean Countries: Evidence from Panel Granger Causality Tests. Current issues in Tourism, 17(4), 363-372 google scholar
• Balaguer, J., & Cantavella-Jorda, M. (2002). Tourism as a Long-Run Economic Growth Factor: The Spanish Case. Applied Economics, 34(7), 877-884 google scholar
• BaLLi, E., Sigeze, C., Manga, M., Birdir, S., & Birdir, K. (2019). The ReLationship Between Tourism, CO2 Emissions and Economic Growth: A Case of Mediterranean Countries. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 24(3), 219-232 google scholar
• Becken, S., & Simmons, D. G. (2002). Understanding Energy Consumption Patterns of Tourist Attractions and Activities in New ZeaLand. Tourism Management, 23(4), 343-354 google scholar
• BeLLa (2018). Estimating the Tourism Induced EnvironmentaL Kuznets Curve in France. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 26(12), 2043-2052 google scholar
• Ben JebLi, M., & Hadhri, W. (2018). The Dynamic CausaL Links Between CO2 Emissions from Transport, ReaL GDP, Energy Use and Interna-tionaL Tourism. International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology, 25(6), 568-577 google scholar
• Brida, J. G., Cortes-Jimenez, I., & PuLina, M. (2016). Has the Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis Been VaLidated? A Literature Review. Current Issues in Tourism, 19(5), 394-430 google scholar
• CogLey, T., & Sargent, T. J. (2005). Drifts and VoLatiLities: Monetary PoLicies and Outcomes in the Post WWII US. Review of Economic Dynamics, 8(2), 262-302 google scholar
• CoLacchio, G., & Vergori, A. S. (2023). Tourism DeveLopment and ItaLian Economic Growth: The Weight of the RegionaL Economies. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 16(4), 245 google scholar
• Cortes-Jimenez, I., & PuLina, M. (2010). Inbound Tourism and Long-Run Economic Growth. Current Issues in Tourism, 13(1), 61-74 google scholar
• Çetin, M., AsLan, A., & SarıgüL, S. S. (2022). AnaLysis of the Dynamics of EnvironmentaL Degradation for 18 Upper MiddLe-Income Countries: The RoLe Of FinanciaL DeveLopment. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29(43), 64647-64664 google scholar
• Çetin, M., SarıgüL, S. S., Topcu, B. A., ALvarado, R., & Karataser, B. (2023). Does GLobaLization Mitigate EnvironmentaL Degradation in SeLected Emerging Economies? Assessment of The RoLe of FinanciaL DeveLopment, Economic Growth, RenewabLe Energy Consumption and Urbanization. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30(45), 100340-100359 google scholar
• De Vita, G., KatirciogLu, S., ALtinay, L., Fethi, S., & Mercan, M. (2015). Revisiting the EnvironmentaL Kuznets Curve Hypothesis in a Tourism DeveLopment Context. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 22(21), 16652-16663 google scholar
• Demiroz, D. M., & Ongan, S. (2005). The Contribution of Tourism to the Long-Run Turkish Economic Growth. Ekorıomicky casopis, 9, 880-894 google scholar
• Destek, M. A., & Aydın, S. (2022). An EmpiricaL Note on Tourism and SustainabLe DeveLopment Nexus. EnvironmentaL Science and PoLLution Research, 29(23), 34515-34527 google scholar
• Dickey, D. A., & FuLLer, W. A. (1981). LikeLihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 49(4), 1057-1072 google scholar
• Dogan, E. (2017). CO2 Emissions, ReaL GDP, RenewabLe Energy and Tourism: Evidence from PaneL of the Most-Visited Countries. Statistika, 97(3), 63-76 google scholar
• Doğan, E., Seker, F., & Bülbül, S. (2017). Investigating the Impacts of Energy Consumption, Real GDP, Tourism and Trade on CO2 Emissions by Accounting for Cross-Sectional Dependence: A Panel Study of OECD Countries. Current Issues in Tourism, 20(16), 1701-1719 google scholar
• Dogru, T., & Bulut, U. (2018). Is Tourism an Engine for Economic Recovery? Theory and Empirical Evidence. Tourism Management, 67, 425-434 google scholar
• Doğru, T., Bulut, U., Koçak, E., Işık, C., Suess, C., & Sirakaya-Turk, E. (2020). The Nexus Between Tourism, Economic Growth, Renewable Energy Consumption, and Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Contemporary Evidence from OECD Countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27, 40930-40948 google scholar
• Dritsakis, N. (2012). Tourism Development and Economic Growth in Seven Mediterranean Countries: A Panel Data Approach. Tourism Economics, 18(4), 801-816 google scholar
• Durbarry, R. (2004). Tourism and Economic Growth: The Case of Mauritius. Tourism Economics, 10(4), 389-401 google scholar
• Ertugrul, H. M., & Mangir, F. (2015). The Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis: Empirical Evidence from Turkey. Current Issues in Tourism, 18(7), 633-646 google scholar
• Eyuboglu, K., & Uzar, U. (2020). The Impact of Tourism on CO2 Emission in Turkey. Current Issues in Tourism, 23(13), 1631-1645 google scholar
• Eyuboglu, S., & Eyuboglu, K. (2020). Tourism Development and Economic Growth: An Asymmetric Panel Causality Test. Current Issues in Tourism, 23(6), 659-665 google scholar
• Gaberli, Ü. (2023). Tourism Growth: A Bibliometric Analysis from the Web of Science (Wos) Database. Sosyal Bilimler Metinleri, 2023(1), 28-39 google scholar
• Gaberli, Ü., & Akdeniz, A. (2024). Türkiye’de Uluslararasi Turizm Talebinin Belirleyicileri 2002-2022 Dönemi Panel Veri Analizi. Trakya Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 26(1), 297-316 google scholar
• Gaberli, Ü., & Can, Y. (2020). Dünya Ekonomisinde Turizm ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Bir Eş-Bütünleşme Analizi (2005-2017). Anatolia: Turizm Araştırmaları Dergisi, 31(3), 250-263 google scholar
• Gao, J., Xu, W., & Zhang, L. (2021). Tourism, Economic Growth, and Tourism-Induced EKC Hypothesis: Evidence from the Mediterranean Region. Empirical Economics, 60(3), 1507-1529 google scholar
• Geweke, J. (1992). Evaluating the Accuracy of Sampling-Based Approaches to the Calculation of Posterior Moments. In: J. M. Bernardo J. O. Berger A. P., Dawid and A. F. Smith (Eds.), Bayesian Statistics (pp.169-193). Oxford University Press google scholar
• Gokovali, U. (2010). Contribution of Tourism to Economic Growth in Turkey. Anatolia, 21(1), 139-153 google scholar
• Gössling, S., Hansson, C. B., Hörstmeier, O., & Saggel, S. (2002). Ecological Footprint Analysis as a Tool to Assess Tourism Sustainability. Ecological Economics, 43(2), 199-211 google scholar
• Gössling, S., Peeters, P., Ceron, J. P., Dubois, G., Patterson, T., & Richardson, R. B. (2005). The Eco-Efficiency of Tourism. Ecological Economics, 54(4), 417-434 google scholar
• Gulistan, A., Tariq, Y. B., & Bashir, M. F. (2020). Dynamic Relationship Among Economic Growth, Energy, Trade Openness, Tourism, and Environmental Degradation: Fresh Global Evidence. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27(12), 13477-13487 google scholar
• Gunduz, L., & Hatemi-J, A. (2005). Is The Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Turkey? Applied Economics Letters, 12(8), 499-504 google scholar
• Hall, C. M., Scott, D., & Gössling, S. (2013). The Primacy of Climate Change for Sustainable International Tourism. Sustainable Develop-ment, 21(2), 112-121 google scholar
• Işık, C., Doğru, T., & Türk, E. S. (2018). A Nexus of Linear and Non-Linear Relationships Between Tourism Demand, Renewable Energy Consumption, and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence. International Journal of Tourism Research, 20(1), 38-49 google scholar
• Işik, C., Kasımatı, E., & Ongan, S. (2017). Analyzing the Causalities Between Economic Growth, Financial Development, International Trade, Tourism Expenditure and/on the CO2 Emissions in Greece. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, 12(7), 665-673 google scholar
• Katircioglu, S. T. (2009). Revisiting the Tourism-Led-Growth Hypothesis for Turkey Using the Bounds Test and Johansen Approach for Cointegration. Tourism Management, 30(1), 17-20 google scholar
• Katircioglu, S. T. (2014). International Tourism, Energy Consumption, and Environmental Pollution: The Case of Turkey. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 36, 180-187 google scholar
• Katircioglu, S. T., Feridun, M., & Kilinc, C. (2014). Estimating Tourism-Induced Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions: The Case of Cyprus. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 29, 634-640 google scholar
• Katircioglu, S., Gokmenoglu, K. K., & Eren, B. M. (2018). Testing the Role of Tourism Development in Ecological Footprint Quality: Evidence from Top 10 Tourist Destinations. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 25(33), 33611-33619 google scholar
• Kocak, E., Ulucak, R., & Ulucak, Z. S. (2020). The Impact of Tourism Developments on CO2 Emissions: An Advanced Panel Data Estimation. Tourism Management Perspectives, 33, 100611 google scholar
• Lee, J. W., & Brahmasrene, T. (2013). Investigating the Influence of Tourism on Economic Growth and Carbon Emissions: Evidence from Panel Analysis of The European Union. Tourism Management, 38, 69-76 google scholar
• Lee, J., & Strazicich, M. C. (2003). Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks. Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4), 1082-1089 google scholar
• Massidda, C., & Mattana, P. (2013). A SVECM Analysis of the Relationship Between International Tourism Arrivals, GDP and Trade in Italy. Journal of Travel Research, 52(1), 93-105 google scholar
• Mishra, H. G., Pandita, S., Bhat, A. A., Mishra, R. K., & Sharma, S. (2022). Tourism and Carbon Emissions: A Bibliometric Review of the Last Three Decades: 1990-2021. Tourism Review, 77(2), 636-658 google scholar
• Moore, W. R. (2010). The Impact of Climate Change on Caribbean Tourism Demand. Current Issues in Tourism, 13(5), 495-505 google scholar
• Nakajima, J. (2011a). Time-Varying Parameter VAR Model with Stochastic Volatility: An Overview of Methodology and Empirical Applica-tions. IMES Discussion Paper Series 11-E-09, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan google scholar
• Nakajima, J. (2011b). Monetary Policy Transmission Under Zero Interest Rates: An Extended Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregres-sion Approach. The BE Journal of Macroeconomics, 11(1) google scholar
• Nakajima, J., Kasuya, M., & Watanabe, T. (2011). Bayesian Analysis of Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive Model for the Japanese Economy and Monetary Policy. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 25(3), 225-245 google scholar
• Nepal, S. K. (2008). Tourism-Induced Rural Energy Consumption in the Annapurna Region of Nepal. Tourism Management, 29(1), 89-100 google scholar
• Ozturk, I., & Acaravci, A. (2009). On the Causality Between Tourism Growth and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Turkey. Transylvanian Review of Administrative Sciences, 5(25), 73-81 google scholar
• Pablo-Romero, M. D. P., & Molina, J. A. (2013). Tourism and Economic Growth: A Review of Empirical Literature. Tourism Management Perspectives, 8, 28-41 google scholar
• Pablo-Romero, M. D. P., Sânchez-Braza, A., & Sânchez-Rivas, J. (2021). Tourism and Electricity Consumption in 9 European Countries: A Decomposition Analysis Approach. Current Issues in Tourism, 24(1), 82-97 google scholar
• Paramati, S. R., Alam, M. S., & Chen, C. F. (2017a). The Effects of Tourism on Economic Growth and CO2 Emissions: A Comparison Between DeveLoped and DeveLoping Economies. Journal of Travel Research, 56(6), 712-724 google scholar
• Paramati, S. R., Shahbaz, M., & ALam, M. S. (2017b). Does Tourism Degrade EnvironmentaL QuaLity? A Comparative Study of Eastern and Western European Union. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 50, 1-13 google scholar
• Pegkas, P. (2020). InterreLationships Between Tourism, Energy, Environment and Economic Growth in Greece. Anatolia, 31(4), 565-576 google scholar
• Perch-NieLsen, S. L. (2010). The VuLnerabiLity of Beach Tourism to CLimate Change: An Index Approach. Climatic Change, 100(3-4), 579-606 google scholar
• PhiLLips, Peter C. B., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a Unit Root ,n Time Series Regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346. doi: 10.2307/233618 google scholar
• Primiceri, G. E. (2005). Time-Varying StructuraL Vector Autoregressions and Monetary PoLicy. Review of Economic Studies, 72(3), 821-852 google scholar
• Ravinthirakumaran, K., & Ravinthirakumaran, N. (2022). Examining the ReLationship Between Tourism and CO2 Emissions: Evidence from APEC Region. Anatolia, 34(3), 306-320 google scholar
• Refinitiv Eikon Datastream, 2021. Refinitiv. https://www.refinitiv.com/en/products/datastream-macroeconomic-anaLysis google scholar
• Saint Akadiri, S., ALoLa, A. A., & Akadiri, A. C. (2019a). The RoLe of GLobaLization, ReaL Income, Tourism in EnvironmentaL SustainabiLity Target. Evidence from Turkey. Science of the Total Environment, 687, 423-432 google scholar
• Saint Akadiri, S., Lasisi, T. T., Uzuner, G., & Akadiri, A. C. (2019b). Examining the Impact of GLobaLization in the EnvironmentaL Kuznets Curve Hypothesis: The Case of Tourist Destination States. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 26(12), 12605-12615 google scholar
• Scott, D., Peeters, P., & GössLing, S. (2010). Can Tourism DeLiver Its “AspirationaL” Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Targets? Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 18(3), 393-408 google scholar
• Scott, D., Steiger, R., Rutty, M., Pons, M., & Johnson, P. (2019). The DifferentiaL Futures of Ski Tourism in Ontario (Canada) Under CLimate Change: The Limits of Snowmaking Adaptation. Current Issues in Tourism, 22(11), 1327-1342 google scholar
• Seetanah, B., & FauzeL, S. (2018). Investigating the Impact of CLimate Change on the Tourism Sector: Evidence from a SampLe of IsLand Economies. Tourism Review, 74(2), 194-203 google scholar
• Segarra, V., Brida, J. G., & Cârdenas-Garcîa, P. J. (2024). On the Relationships Between Tourism Demand, Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Economic Growth: A Literature Review. Journal of Policy Research in Tourism, Leisure and Events, 1-42 google scholar
• Sokhanvar, A., ÇiftçioğLu, S., & Javid, E. (2018). Another Look At Tourism-Economic DeveLopment Nexus. Tourism Management Perspec-tives, 26, 97-106 google scholar
• SoLarin, S. A. (2014). Tourist ArrivaLs and Macroeconomic Determinants of CO2 Emissions in MaLaysia. Anatolia, 25(2), 228-241 google scholar
• Steiger, R., & Abegg, B. (2018). Ski Areas’ Competitiveness in the Light of CLimate Change: Comparative AnaLysis in the Eastern ALps. In Tourism in Transitions (pp. 187-199). Springer, Cham google scholar
• Steiger, R., Scott, D., Abegg, B., Pons, M., & AaLL, C. (2019). A CriticaL Review of CLimate Change Risk For Ski Tourism. Current Issues in Tourism, 22(11), 1343-1379 google scholar
• Sun, Y., Duru, O. A., Razzaq, A., & Dinca, M. S. (2021). The Asymmetric Effect Eco-Innovation and Tourism Towards Carbon Neutrality Target in Turkey. Journal of Environmental Management, 299, 113653 google scholar
• Tang, C. F., & Abosedra, S. (2014). Small Sample Evidence on the Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis in Lebanon. Current Issues in Tourism, 17(3), 234-246 google scholar
• UNWTO (World Tourism Organization) (2021). The Economic Contribution of Tourism and the Impact of COVID-19. https://www.e-unwto. org/doi/epdf/10.18111/978928442320 google scholar
• Uzuner, G., Akadiri, S. S., & Lasisi, T. T. (2020). The Asymmetric Relationship Between Globalization, Tourism, CO2 Emissions, and Economic Growth in Turkey: Implications for Environmental Policy Making. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27, 32742-32753 google scholar
• Watanabe, T., & Omori, Y. (2004) A Multi-Move Sampler for Estimating Non-Gaussian Time Series Models: Comments on Shephard & Pitt (1997). Biometrika, 91(1), 246-248 google scholar
• Xu, A., Jin, L., & Yang, J. (2024). Balancing Tourism Growth, Fintech, Natural Resources, and Environmental Sustainability: Findings from Top Tourist Destinations Using MMQR Approach. Resources Policy, 89, 104670 google scholar
• Xu, B., & Dong, D. (2020). Evaluating the Impact of Air Pollution on China’s Inbound Tourism: A Gravity Model Approach. Sustainability, 12(4), 1456 google scholar
• Yıldırım, S., Yıldırım, D. Ç., Aydın, K., & Erdoğan, F. (2021). Regime-Dependent Effect of Tourism on Carbon Emissions in the Mediterranean Countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28(39), 54766-54780 google scholar
• Zaman, K., Shahbaz, M., Loganathan, N., & Raza, S. A. (2016). Tourism Development, Energy Consumption and Environmental Kuznets Curve: Trivariate Analysis in the Panel of Developed and Developing Countries. Tourism Management, 54, 275-283 google scholar
• Zhang, H., Jiang, Z., Gao, W., & Yang, C. (2022). Time-Varying Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risk on Tourist Arrivals: Evidence from a Developing Country. Tourism Management Perspectives, 41, 100928. google scholar