Kripto Varlıklar Gerçek Dünya Şokları ile Ilişkili mi? Terörist Saldırıları, Bitcoin ve NFT’ler Arasındaki Bağlantı

Year 2023, Volume: 10 Issue: 1, 113 - 132, 30.01.2023

Firuze Simay Sezgin , Caner Özdurak

https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1127482

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, terörist saldırılarının Bitcoin fiyatlarındaki ve Değiştirilemez Jeton (NFT) satışlarındaki fiyat dalgalanmalarına etkisi araştırılmaktadır. Kripto paraların temel değer önermesi, Merkezi Olmayan Finans (DeFi) ve blokzincir teknolojisi daha hızlı, daha ucuz ve daha şeffaf bir finansal sistem için devrim niteliğinde gelişmelerdir. Buna karşın birçok terör örgütü, dünyanın dört bir yanındaki terörist faaliyetlerini finanse etmek için gelişmiş ülke ekonomilerinin güçlü bir şekilde regüle edilmiş konvansiyonel bankacılık sistemlerini kripto paraların anonim özelliğini kullanarak suistimal etme eğilimindedir. Makalemizdeki analizler, Bitcoin ve NFT piyasalarının getirilerinin terör saldırılarının organizasyon ve finansman aşamaları ile pozitif olarak ilişkili olduğunu, ancak terör sonrası oluşan koşullar ile negatif ilişkili olduğunu, yani saldırıdan önce pozitif anormal getiriler (AG) ürettiğini ancak saldırı sonrasında negatif anormal getiriler (AG) ürettiğini göstermektedir. Ek olarak Bitcoin haber etki eğrisi (HEE) neredeyse simetrik iken, NFT HEE’leri asimetriktir ve pozitif şokların oynaklık üzerindeki etkisi aynı büyüklükteki negatif şoklardan önemli ölçüde daha fazladır. Önceki çalışmalar terörist saldırı haberlerinin Bitcoin getirileri için iyi haber olduğunu savunduğu üzere, AG analiz sonuçlarının HEE sonuçlarıyla birleştirilmesi araştırmacılara daha sağlıklı sonuçlar sunacaktır.

Keywords

Kripto paralar, Terör saldırıları, Getiri, Oynaklık, Olay çalışması, Haber etki eğrileri

Are Crypto Assets Connected to Real World Shocks? The Nexus Between Terrorist Attacks, Bitcoin and NFTs

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of terrorist attacks on the price fluctuations of Bitcoin prices and NFT sales. Although the value proposition of cryptocurrencies, Decentralized Finance, and the whole blockchain revolution is a quicker, cheaper, and more transparent kind of finance, various terrorist organizations tend to use cryptocurrency anonymously to finance their terrorist activities around the world by bypassing the banking system of the regulated countries. The analyses reveal that returns of Bitcoin and NFT markets are positively associated with the organization and funding phases of the terrorist attacks but negatively associated with the post-terrorist attack circumstances, meaning that it generates positive abnormal returns (AR) prior to the attack but creates negative AR right after the attack. Furthermore, while the Bitcoin news impact curve (NIC) is nearly symmetric, the NFT NIC is asymmetric, with positive shocks having significantly more impact on future volatility than negative shocks of the same magnitude. Since previous studies claim that terrorist attack news is good news for Bitcoin returns, we will enrich our AR analysis results with NICs results.

Keywords

Cryptocurrencies, Terror attacks, Returns, Volatility, Event study, News impact curves

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