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Türkiye İşgücü Piyasasında Kalıcı İşsizlik

Year 2023, Volume: 10 Issue: 1, 181 - 211, 30.01.2023
https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1197535

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye işgücü piyasasında kalıcı işsizliğin varlığını araştırmaktır. Bu doğrultuda 2013-2016 Gelir ve Yaşam Koşulları Araştırması ve Hanehalkı İşgücü Araştırmasından elde edilen veriler kullanılarak gerçek duruma bağımlılığın varlığı ve boyutu analiz edilmiştir. Dinamik rassal etkiler probit modeli tahmin sonuçları Türkiye işgücü piyasasında gerçek duruma bağımlılığın olduğunu göstermiştir. Diğer bir ifade ile gözlenen ve gözlenemeyen heterojenlik ve başlangıç koşulları kontrol edildikten sonra, geçmiş dönemde yaşanan işsizlik deneyimlerinin gelecek dönemde işsiz olma olasılığını artırdığı ortaya çıkmıştır. Bunun yanı sıra gerçek duruma bağımlılığın marjinal etkisi başlangıç döneminde istihdam edilen bireylere göre işsiz olan bireyler için daha yüksek bulunmuştur. Eğitim seviyesi azaldıkça işsiz kalma olasılığının azaldığı görülürken kadınlara kıyasla erkeklerin daha yüksek işsiz kalma olasılığına sahip olduğu görülmüştür. İşsiz olma olasılığının yaş, cinsiyet, eğitim seviyesi, medeni durum ve hanede çalışan birey sayısından etkilendiği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. İşsizlik ve istihdamın büyüme oranı gibi talep yönlü faktörlerin ise işsiz olma olasılığını etkilemediği ortaya çıkmıştır.

References

  • Arulampalam, W., Booth, A. L., ve Taylor, M. P. (2000). Unemployment persistence. Oxford economic papers, 52(1), 24-50. google scholar
  • Alcan, D., Can, R., ve Pektaş, B. (2015). Türkiye İşgücü Piyasasında Hareketlilik: Mikro Veriye Dayalı Analiz. Kalkınma Bakanlığı Ekonomi Çalışma Tebliğleri Serisi, (2015/1), 32. google scholar
  • Acar, E. Ö. (2016). Küresel Ekonomik Krizin Türkiye İşgücü Piyasasındaki Etkileri: Markov Geçiş Analizi/The Impact of the Global Economic Crisis on the Turkish Labor Market: A Markov Transition Analysis. Business and Economics Research Journal, 7(4), 51-66. google scholar
  • Ayllon, S. (2013). Unemployment persistence: not only stigma but discouragement too. Applied Economics Letters, 20(1), 67-71. google scholar
  • Biewen, M., ve Steffes, S. (2010). Unemployment persistence: Is there evidence for stigma effects? Economics Letters, 106(3), 188-190. google scholar
  • Blanchard, O. J., ve Diamond, P. (1994). Ranking, unemployment duration, and wages. The Review of Economic Studies, 61(3), 417-434. google scholar
  • Cai, L., Mavromaras, K., ve Sloane, P. (2018). Low Paid Employment in Britain: Estimating State-Dependence and Stepping Stone Effects. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 80(2), 283- 326. google scholar
  • Cappellari, L. ve Jenkins, S.P. (2008). Transitions between unemployment and low pay, Polachek, S.W. and Tatsiramos, K. (Ed.) Work, Earnings and Other Aspects of the Employment Relation (Research in Labor Economics, Vol. 28), Emerald Group Publishing Limited, Bingley, 57-79. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0147-9121(08)28003-9 google scholar
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  • Congressional Budget Office. (2012). Understanding and Responding to Persistently High Unemployment. https:// www.cbo.gov/publication/42989 adresinden erişildi. google scholar
  • Fok, Y. K., Scutella, R., ve Wilkins, R. (2015). The Low-Pay No-Pay Cycle: Are There Systematic Differences across Demographic Groups?. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 77(6), 872- 896. google scholar
  • Gangji, A., ve Plasman, R. (2008). Microeconomic analysis of unemployment persistence in Belgium. International Journal of Manpower, 29(3), 280-298. google scholar
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  • Lockwood, B. (1991). Information externalities in the labour market and the duration of unemployment. The Review of Economic Studies, 58(4), 733-753. google scholar
  • Mundlak, Y. (1978). On the pooling of time series and cross section data. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 69-85. google scholar
  • Omori, Y. (1997). Stigma effects of nonemployment. Economic Inquiry, 35(2), 394-416. google scholar
  • Orme, C. D. (1997) The initial conditions problem and two-step estimation in discrete panel data models. University of Manchester. google scholar
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  • Pissarides, C. A. (1992). Loss of skill during unemployment and the persistence of employment shocks. The quarterly journal of economics, 107(4), 1371-1391. google scholar
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  • Rabe-Hesketh, S., ve Skrondal, A. (2013). Avoiding biased versions of Wooldridge’s simple solution to the initial conditions problem. Economics Letters, 120(2), 346-349. google scholar
  • Selim, S., Kırgel, H. D., Çelik, O., ve Yazıcıoğlu, H. (2014). Türkiye’de işsizliğin sosyo-ekonomik belirleyicileri: Panel veri analizi. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 10(22), 1-25. google scholar
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  • TÜİK, (2021a). İşgücü İstatistikleri, https://tuikweb.tuik.gov.tr/PreTablo.do?alt_id=1007 adresinden 23.04.2021 tarihinde erişildi. google scholar
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Unemployment Persistence in The Turkish Labor Market

Year 2023, Volume: 10 Issue: 1, 181 - 211, 30.01.2023
https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1197535

Abstract

The aim of this study is to investigate the existence of unemployment persistence in the Turkish labor market. In this regard, the existence and degree of genuine state dependence was analyzed using the data obtained from the 2013-2016 Survey on Income and Living Conditions and Household Labor Force Survey. The dynamic random effects probit model estimation results showed that there is genuine state dependence in the Turkish labor market. In other words, after controlling for observed and unobserved heterogeneity and initial conditions, past unemployment experiences increased the probability of being unemployed in the future. In addition, the marginal effect of genuine state dependence was found to be higher for the unemployed individuals than for the individuals employed in the initial period. As one’s education level increases, the likelihood of being jobless declines, however, men are more likely than women to do so. Age, gender, education level, marital status, and the number of household employees all have an impact on the likelihood of being unemployed. Demand-side factors such as the unemployment rate and growth rate of employment do not affect the probability of remaining unemployed.

References

  • Arulampalam, W., Booth, A. L., ve Taylor, M. P. (2000). Unemployment persistence. Oxford economic papers, 52(1), 24-50. google scholar
  • Alcan, D., Can, R., ve Pektaş, B. (2015). Türkiye İşgücü Piyasasında Hareketlilik: Mikro Veriye Dayalı Analiz. Kalkınma Bakanlığı Ekonomi Çalışma Tebliğleri Serisi, (2015/1), 32. google scholar
  • Acar, E. Ö. (2016). Küresel Ekonomik Krizin Türkiye İşgücü Piyasasındaki Etkileri: Markov Geçiş Analizi/The Impact of the Global Economic Crisis on the Turkish Labor Market: A Markov Transition Analysis. Business and Economics Research Journal, 7(4), 51-66. google scholar
  • Ayllon, S. (2013). Unemployment persistence: not only stigma but discouragement too. Applied Economics Letters, 20(1), 67-71. google scholar
  • Biewen, M., ve Steffes, S. (2010). Unemployment persistence: Is there evidence for stigma effects? Economics Letters, 106(3), 188-190. google scholar
  • Blanchard, O. J., ve Diamond, P. (1994). Ranking, unemployment duration, and wages. The Review of Economic Studies, 61(3), 417-434. google scholar
  • Cai, L., Mavromaras, K., ve Sloane, P. (2018). Low Paid Employment in Britain: Estimating State-Dependence and Stepping Stone Effects. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 80(2), 283- 326. google scholar
  • Cappellari, L. ve Jenkins, S.P. (2008). Transitions between unemployment and low pay, Polachek, S.W. and Tatsiramos, K. (Ed.) Work, Earnings and Other Aspects of the Employment Relation (Research in Labor Economics, Vol. 28), Emerald Group Publishing Limited, Bingley, 57-79. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0147-9121(08)28003-9 google scholar
  • Clark, A., Georgellis, Y., ve Sanfey, P. (2001). Scarring: The psychological impact of past unemployment. Economica, 68(270), 221-241. google scholar
  • Congressional Budget Office. (2012). Understanding and Responding to Persistently High Unemployment. https:// www.cbo.gov/publication/42989 adresinden erişildi. google scholar
  • Fok, Y. K., Scutella, R., ve Wilkins, R. (2015). The Low-Pay No-Pay Cycle: Are There Systematic Differences across Demographic Groups?. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 77(6), 872- 896. google scholar
  • Gangji, A., ve Plasman, R. (2008). Microeconomic analysis of unemployment persistence in Belgium. International Journal of Manpower, 29(3), 280-298. google scholar
  • Grotti, R., ve Cutuli, G. (2018). xtpdyn: A community-contributed command for fitting dynamic random-effects probit models with unobserved heterogeneity. The Stata Journal, 18(4), 844-862. google scholar
  • Heckman, J. J. (1981a). Heterogeneity and state dependence. S. Rosen (Ed.), Studies in labor markets içinde (ss. 91-140). Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press. google scholar
  • Heckman, J. J. (1981b). The incidental parameters problem and the problem of initial conditions in estimating a discrete time-discrete data stochastic process and some Monte Carlo evidence. C. F. Manski & D. McFadden (Ed.), Structural Analysis of Discrete Data with Econometric Applications içinde (ss. 179-195). Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. google scholar
  • Katz, L. F., ve Meyer, B. D. (1990). The impact of the potential duration of unemployment benefits on the duration of unemployment. Journal of public economics, 41(1), 45-72. google scholar
  • Lockwood, B. (1991). Information externalities in the labour market and the duration of unemployment. The Review of Economic Studies, 58(4), 733-753. google scholar
  • Mundlak, Y. (1978). On the pooling of time series and cross section data. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 69-85. google scholar
  • Omori, Y. (1997). Stigma effects of nonemployment. Economic Inquiry, 35(2), 394-416. google scholar
  • Orme, C. D. (1997) The initial conditions problem and two-step estimation in discrete panel data models. University of Manchester. google scholar
  • Pasaribu, S. H. (2016). Persistence of Individual Unemployment in Indonesia: Dynamic Probit Analysis from Panel SUSENAS 2008-2010. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 6(3), 1239-1245. google scholar
  • Pissarides, C. A. (1992). Loss of skill during unemployment and the persistence of employment shocks. The quarterly journal of economics, 107(4), 1371-1391. google scholar
  • Plum, A., ve Ayllon, S. (2015). Heterogeneity in unemployment state dependence. Economics Letters, 136, 85-87. google scholar
  • Rabe-Hesketh, S., ve Skrondal, A. (2013). Avoiding biased versions of Wooldridge’s simple solution to the initial conditions problem. Economics Letters, 120(2), 346-349. google scholar
  • Selim, S., Kırgel, H. D., Çelik, O., ve Yazıcıoğlu, H. (2014). Türkiye’de işsizliğin sosyo-ekonomik belirleyicileri: Panel veri analizi. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 10(22), 1-25. google scholar
  • Stewart, M. B. (2007). The interrelated dynamics of unemployment and low-wage employment. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(3), 511-531. google scholar
  • Tansel, A., ve Tasçı, H. M. (2004). Determinants of Unemployment Duration for Men and Women in Turkey. Institute for Study of Labor (IZA), Discussion Paper 1258, Bonn: IZA. google scholar
  • TÜİK, (2021a). İşgücü İstatistikleri, https://tuikweb.tuik.gov.tr/PreTablo.do?alt_id=1007 adresinden 23.04.2021 tarihinde erişildi. google scholar
  • TÜİK, (2021b). Gelir ve Yaşam Koşulları Araştırması, https://tuikweb.tuik.gov.tr/MicroVeri/GYKA_Panel_2017/ turkce/metaveri/oernekleme-tasariimii/index.html adresinden 23.04.2021 tarihinde erişildi. google scholar
  • Wooldridge, J. M. (2005). Simple solutions to the initial conditions problem in dynamic, nonlinear panel data models with unobserved heterogeneity. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 20(1), 39-54. google scholar
  • World Bank, (2021). Social Protection ve Labor: Unemployment, https://databank.worldbank.org/reports. google scholar
  • aspx?source=2&series=SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS&country=# adresinden 23.04.2021 tarihinde erişildi. google scholar
There are 32 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Economics
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Selçuk Gemicioğlu 0000-0001-7952-5456

Hasan Şahin 0000-0001-5922-068X

Publication Date January 30, 2023
Submission Date November 2, 2022
Published in Issue Year 2023 Volume: 10 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Gemicioğlu, S., & Şahin, H. (2023). Türkiye İşgücü Piyasasında Kalıcı İşsizlik. İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi, 10(1), 181-211. https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1197535
AMA Gemicioğlu S, Şahin H. Türkiye İşgücü Piyasasında Kalıcı İşsizlik. JEPR. January 2023;10(1):181-211. doi:10.26650/JEPR1197535
Chicago Gemicioğlu, Selçuk, and Hasan Şahin. “Türkiye İşgücü Piyasasında Kalıcı İşsizlik”. İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi 10, no. 1 (January 2023): 181-211. https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1197535.
EndNote Gemicioğlu S, Şahin H (January 1, 2023) Türkiye İşgücü Piyasasında Kalıcı İşsizlik. İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi 10 1 181–211.
IEEE S. Gemicioğlu and H. Şahin, “Türkiye İşgücü Piyasasında Kalıcı İşsizlik”, JEPR, vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 181–211, 2023, doi: 10.26650/JEPR1197535.
ISNAD Gemicioğlu, Selçuk - Şahin, Hasan. “Türkiye İşgücü Piyasasında Kalıcı İşsizlik”. İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi 10/1 (January 2023), 181-211. https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1197535.
JAMA Gemicioğlu S, Şahin H. Türkiye İşgücü Piyasasında Kalıcı İşsizlik. JEPR. 2023;10:181–211.
MLA Gemicioğlu, Selçuk and Hasan Şahin. “Türkiye İşgücü Piyasasında Kalıcı İşsizlik”. İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi, vol. 10, no. 1, 2023, pp. 181-1, doi:10.26650/JEPR1197535.
Vancouver Gemicioğlu S, Şahin H. Türkiye İşgücü Piyasasında Kalıcı İşsizlik. JEPR. 2023;10(1):181-21.