Research Article
BibTex RIS Cite

Türkiye’de Finansal Gelişme ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi

Year 2012, Issue: 57, 103 - 118, 10.03.2013

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de finansal gelişme ile iktisadi büyüme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisinin yönünü ve boyutunu ampirik olarak analiz etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Türkiye’de finansal gelişme ile iktisadi büyüme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisinin araştırılmasında kullanılan veri seti yıllık olarak elde edilmiş olup, World Development Indicators veritabanından alınmıştır. Gözlem dönemi, 1960 ile 2009 yıllarını kapsamaktadır. Ampirik analizde iktisadi büyüme olarak Reel Gayri Safi Yurt İçi Hâsıla’daki artış oranı (Y) değişkeni, finansal gelişmişlik göstergesi olarak ise M2/GDP değişkeni kullanılmıştır. Finansal gelişme ile iktisadi büyüme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığı Toda ve Yamamoto (1995) tarafından geliştirilen nedensellik analizi yardımıyla araştırılmıştır. Toda ve Yamamoto (1995) tarafından geliştirilen nedensellik analizinin kullanılmasının nedeni bu yaklaşımda birim kök ve eşbütünleşme testlerine ihtiyaç duyulmamasıdır. Toda ve Yamamoto (1995) nedensellik analizinde düzey değişkenlerle kurulan genişletilmiş vektör otoregresif modeller (VAR) kullanılmaktadır ve bu modeller yardımıyla değişkenler arasındaki dinamik ilişkiler araştırılabilmektedir. Ayrıca bu yöntemde değişkenler arasındaki olası eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığı analiz sonuçlarını etkilememektedir.

References

  • Al-Jarrah Idries Mohammed, Al-Zu’bi Zu’bi M. F., Jaara Osama Omar, Alshurideh Muhammad, “Evaluating the Impact of Financial Development on Economic Growth in Jordan”, International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, Issue 94, (2012).
  • Altıntaş, Halil, Ayrıçay, Yücel, “Türkiye’de Finansal Gelişme ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisinin Sınır Testi Yaklaşımıyla Analizi:1987-2007”, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Cilt/Vol. 10, Sayı/No.2, 2010, s. 71-98.
  • Altunç, Ömer, Faruk, “Türkiye’de Finansal Gelişme ve İktisadi Büyüme Arasındaki Nedenselliğin Ampirik Bir Analizi”, Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 3(2), Ekim 2008, s. 113-127.
  • Ang, J. and W. Mckibbin 2007), “Financial Liberalization, Financial Sector Development and Growth”, Journal of Development, Vol. 84, No. 1, pp. 215-33.
  • Arestis, Philip, “Financial Liberalisation and The Relationship Between Finance and Growth”, CEPP Working Paper, University of Cambridge, No.05/05, June 2005.
  • Arestis, P., Demetriades, P.O. ve Luintel, K.B., “Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Role of Stock Markets”, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 33(1), 2001, 16–41.
  • Aslan, Özgür, Küçükaksoy, İsmail, “Finansal Gelişme ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi:Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Uygulama”, İ.Ü. İktisat Fakültesi Ekonometri ve İstatistik Dergisi, Sayı:4, 2006, s. 25-38.
  • Bagehot, Walter, Lombard Street: A Description of the Money Market, Richard D .Irwin Inc., Homewood, Illinois, 1962 Edition, 1873.
  • Chang Tsangyao, Caudill Steven B., “Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Case of Taiwan”, Applied Economics, 37, 2005, pp.1329–1335.
  • Danışoğlu, Ayşe, Çelikel, “Finansal Gelişme ve İktisadi Büyüme İlişkisi:Türkiye Örneği”, Yönetim, İ.Ü. İktisat Fakültesi, Yıl 15, Sayı 49, Ekim 2004, s.19-24.
  • Darrat AF., “Are financial deepening and economic growth causally related? Another look at the evidence”, International Economic Journal, Volume 13, Number 3, 1999, pp.19-35.
  • Demirgüç, Kunt, Aslı, Maksimovic, Vojislav, Law, Finance and Firm Growth, The Journal of Finance, Vol. 53, No. 6. (Dec., 1998), pp. 2107-2137.
  • Dritsakis, N., Adamopoulos, A.. (2004). “Financial Development and Economic Growth in Greece: An Empirical Investigation with Granger Causality Analysis”, International Economic Journal, 18(4), 547-559.
  • Feldman, D., and I. Gang (1990), “Financial Development and the price of services”, Economic Development Cultural Change, The University of Chicago Press, Vol. 38, No. 2.
  • Galetovic, A., (1996). “Finance and Growth: A Synthesis And Interpretation of the Evidence”, BNL Quarterly Review, 49(96), 59-82. Gelb, A. (1989), “Financial policies, growth and efficiency”, Policy Planning and Research Working Papers, No. 202, World Bank, Washington, DC.
  • Gemech Firdu, Struthers John, “The Mckinnon-Shaw Hypothesis: Thirty Years on: A Review of Recent Developments in Financial Liberalization Theory”, Development Studies Association (DSA) Annual Conference on “Globalisation and Development”, Glasgow, Scotland, September 2003.
  • Goldsmith, R.W., Financial Structure and Development, New Haven, Conn: Yale University Pres., 1969.
  • Greenwald, Bruce, C., Stiglitz, Joseph, E., Externalities in Economies with Imperfect Information and Incomplete Markets, Quarterly Journal of Economics, V.101, 1986, 229-264.
  • Gregorio, J.D. ve Guidotti, P.E., “Financial Development and Economic Growth”, World Development, 23(3), 1995, pp.433-448.
  • Greenwood, Jeremy, Bruce, D., Smith, Financila Markets in Development and the Development of Financila markets, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, V.21, 1997, 145-181.
  • Gupta, Kanhaya, L., Finance and Economic Growth in Developing Countries, Journal of Economic Literature, V.25, 1984, 143-144. Hicks, John, A Theory of Economic History, Clarendon Press, Oxford, 1969.
  • Huang Yongfu, “What determines financial development?”, University of Bristol, Discussion Paper No. 05/580, 2005.
  • Jung, Woo S. “Financial Development and Economic Growth: International Evidence” Economic Development and Cultural Change, Vol.34, No.2, 1986, s.333-346.
  • Kar, M., Ağır, H., “Menkul Kıymet Piyasaları, Finansal Kalkınma ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Türkiye Örneği”, İstanbul Üniversitesi, İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası, (56), 2006, s.1-31.
  • King RG, Levine R (1993a). “Finance and growth: Schumpeter might be right”. Journal of Economics, 108, 1993a, pp.717-738.
  • Levine, Ross, “Financial Development and Economic Growth:Views and Agenda”, Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, Vol:35, No.2, June 1997, pp.688-726.
  • Levine, R. & Zervos, S., Stock Market Development and Long-Run Growth, World Bank Economic Review, 10(2), 1996, 323-39.
  • Levine, Ross, Loayza, Norman, Beck, Thorsten, Financial intermediation and growth: Causality and causes, Journal of Monetary Economies, Vol.46, Issue , August 2000, p.31-77.
  • Levine, R., “Denying Foreign Bank Entry: Implications for Bank Interest Margins”, University of Minnesota 2003.
  • Lewis, Arthur, The Theory of Economic Growth, George Allen and Unwin, London, 1955, pp.453.
  • Liu X, Song H, Romilly P., “An empirical investigation of the causal relationship between openness and economic growth in China”. Applied Economics, 29, 1997, pp.1679-1686.
  • Lucas, Robert, E., “On the Mechanics of Economic Development.” Journal of Monetary Economics, 1988, 22: 3-42.
  • Luzt, Mina, Baliamoune, “Financial Development and Income in Developing Countries”, Working Paper Series, ICER, University of North Florida, No.9, 2010.
  • McKinnon RI., “Money and Capital in Economic Development”, Brookings Institution, Washington DC, 1973.
  • Müslümov, A. ve Aras, G., “Sermaye Piyasası Gelişmesi ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasında Nedensellik İlişkisi: OECD Ülkeleri Örneği”, İktisat İşletme Finans,2002, 17(198), 90- 100.
  • Ndebbio, J.E. U., “Financial Deepening, Economic Growth and Development: Evidence from Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries”. African Economic Research Consortium, AERC Research Paper 142, August 2004.
  • Obstfeld, M., The Logic of Currency Crises, NBER Working Paper 4640, 1994.
  • Öztürk, Nurettin, Darıcı, Havva, Kılıç, Kesikoğlu, Ferdi, “Ekonomik Büyüme ve Finansal Gelişme İlişkisi:Gelişmekte Olan Piyasalar İçin Bir Panel Nedensellik Analizi”, Marmara Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, Cilt XXX, Sayı I, 2011, s. 53-69.
  • Patrick, Hugh, T., “Financial Development and Economic Growth in Underdeveloped Countries”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, The University of Chicago Press, Vol. 14, No. 2. (Jan., 1966), pp. 174-189.
  • Ram R (1999). “Financial Development and Economic Growth: Additional Evidence”. Journal of Development Studies, 35: 164-174.
  • Outreville, J. F., “Financial Development, Human Capital and Political Stability”, UNCTAD, Discussion Papers, No: 142, 1999.
  • Robinson, Joan, “The Generalization of the General Theory” in the Rate of Interest, and Other Essays, Macmillan, London, 1952, pp.67-142.
  • Schich S, Pelgrin F (2002). “Financial Development and Iinvestment: Panel Data Evidence for OECD Countries from 1970 to 1997”. Applied Economics Letter, 9: 1-7.
  • Shaw ES., “Financial deepening in economic development”, Oxford University Press, 1973, London.
  • Soukhakian Nazanin, “Financial Development and Economic Growth in Iran: Evidence From Co-Integration and Causality Tests”, International Journal of Economic Perspectives,Volume 1, Issue 2, 2007, pp.56-63.
  • SPK (2011), “Türkiye Sermaye Piyasası 2011 Yılı Araştırma Raporu”, (serpam.istanbul.edu.tr/.../Türkiye-Sermaye-Piyasası-Raporu-20111.pd...,),(Erişim Tarihi: 09.02.2103).
  • Toda, H.Y., Yamamoto, T., “Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes”, Journal of Econometrics, 66, 1955, pp. 225-250.
  • World Bank (2011), Yüksek Büyümenin Sürdürülebilirliği: Yurtiçi Tasarrufların Rolü Türkiye Ülke Ekonomik Raporu”,(www.dpt.gov.tr/.../PortalControls/WebIcerikGosterim.aspx?Enc...),(Erişim Tarihi: 09.02.2013).
Year 2012, Issue: 57, 103 - 118, 10.03.2013

Abstract

This study aims at an empiric analysis of the direction and magnitude of the causality relationship between financial development and economic growth in Turkey. The data set employed for researching the causality factor between financial progress and economic expansion in Turkey were obtained on an annual basis, and derived from the data-base of the World Development Indicators. The observation period encompasses the era between 1960 and 2009. For the purposes of the empiric analysis, the (Y) variable was taken to illustrate the rate of increase in the Real Gross Domestic Product, as a manifestation of economic growth, and the M2/GDP variable as the indicator for the level of financial development. The existence and prevalence of the causality correlation between financial development and economic growth was researched with the aid of the causality analysis developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995). The pretext for the utilization of the causality analysis model developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) is attributable to the fact that there will be no necessity for unit root and co-integration tests in this approach. In their causality analyses, Toda and Yamamoto (1995) used expanded vector auto-regressive models (VAR) structured with level variables, as these models conveniently enable the verification of dynamic relationships between the variables. Furthermore, in this method, the existence of a potential co-integration relationship bears no impact on the findings of the analysis. According to the results of the empiric study conducted in accordance with the methodology furthered by Toda and Yamamoto (1995), it may be suitably argued that there exists a relationship in Turkey, from financial development towards economic growth.

References

  • Al-Jarrah Idries Mohammed, Al-Zu’bi Zu’bi M. F., Jaara Osama Omar, Alshurideh Muhammad, “Evaluating the Impact of Financial Development on Economic Growth in Jordan”, International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, Issue 94, (2012).
  • Altıntaş, Halil, Ayrıçay, Yücel, “Türkiye’de Finansal Gelişme ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisinin Sınır Testi Yaklaşımıyla Analizi:1987-2007”, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Cilt/Vol. 10, Sayı/No.2, 2010, s. 71-98.
  • Altunç, Ömer, Faruk, “Türkiye’de Finansal Gelişme ve İktisadi Büyüme Arasındaki Nedenselliğin Ampirik Bir Analizi”, Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 3(2), Ekim 2008, s. 113-127.
  • Ang, J. and W. Mckibbin 2007), “Financial Liberalization, Financial Sector Development and Growth”, Journal of Development, Vol. 84, No. 1, pp. 215-33.
  • Arestis, Philip, “Financial Liberalisation and The Relationship Between Finance and Growth”, CEPP Working Paper, University of Cambridge, No.05/05, June 2005.
  • Arestis, P., Demetriades, P.O. ve Luintel, K.B., “Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Role of Stock Markets”, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 33(1), 2001, 16–41.
  • Aslan, Özgür, Küçükaksoy, İsmail, “Finansal Gelişme ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi:Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Uygulama”, İ.Ü. İktisat Fakültesi Ekonometri ve İstatistik Dergisi, Sayı:4, 2006, s. 25-38.
  • Bagehot, Walter, Lombard Street: A Description of the Money Market, Richard D .Irwin Inc., Homewood, Illinois, 1962 Edition, 1873.
  • Chang Tsangyao, Caudill Steven B., “Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Case of Taiwan”, Applied Economics, 37, 2005, pp.1329–1335.
  • Danışoğlu, Ayşe, Çelikel, “Finansal Gelişme ve İktisadi Büyüme İlişkisi:Türkiye Örneği”, Yönetim, İ.Ü. İktisat Fakültesi, Yıl 15, Sayı 49, Ekim 2004, s.19-24.
  • Darrat AF., “Are financial deepening and economic growth causally related? Another look at the evidence”, International Economic Journal, Volume 13, Number 3, 1999, pp.19-35.
  • Demirgüç, Kunt, Aslı, Maksimovic, Vojislav, Law, Finance and Firm Growth, The Journal of Finance, Vol. 53, No. 6. (Dec., 1998), pp. 2107-2137.
  • Dritsakis, N., Adamopoulos, A.. (2004). “Financial Development and Economic Growth in Greece: An Empirical Investigation with Granger Causality Analysis”, International Economic Journal, 18(4), 547-559.
  • Feldman, D., and I. Gang (1990), “Financial Development and the price of services”, Economic Development Cultural Change, The University of Chicago Press, Vol. 38, No. 2.
  • Galetovic, A., (1996). “Finance and Growth: A Synthesis And Interpretation of the Evidence”, BNL Quarterly Review, 49(96), 59-82. Gelb, A. (1989), “Financial policies, growth and efficiency”, Policy Planning and Research Working Papers, No. 202, World Bank, Washington, DC.
  • Gemech Firdu, Struthers John, “The Mckinnon-Shaw Hypothesis: Thirty Years on: A Review of Recent Developments in Financial Liberalization Theory”, Development Studies Association (DSA) Annual Conference on “Globalisation and Development”, Glasgow, Scotland, September 2003.
  • Goldsmith, R.W., Financial Structure and Development, New Haven, Conn: Yale University Pres., 1969.
  • Greenwald, Bruce, C., Stiglitz, Joseph, E., Externalities in Economies with Imperfect Information and Incomplete Markets, Quarterly Journal of Economics, V.101, 1986, 229-264.
  • Gregorio, J.D. ve Guidotti, P.E., “Financial Development and Economic Growth”, World Development, 23(3), 1995, pp.433-448.
  • Greenwood, Jeremy, Bruce, D., Smith, Financila Markets in Development and the Development of Financila markets, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, V.21, 1997, 145-181.
  • Gupta, Kanhaya, L., Finance and Economic Growth in Developing Countries, Journal of Economic Literature, V.25, 1984, 143-144. Hicks, John, A Theory of Economic History, Clarendon Press, Oxford, 1969.
  • Huang Yongfu, “What determines financial development?”, University of Bristol, Discussion Paper No. 05/580, 2005.
  • Jung, Woo S. “Financial Development and Economic Growth: International Evidence” Economic Development and Cultural Change, Vol.34, No.2, 1986, s.333-346.
  • Kar, M., Ağır, H., “Menkul Kıymet Piyasaları, Finansal Kalkınma ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Türkiye Örneği”, İstanbul Üniversitesi, İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası, (56), 2006, s.1-31.
  • King RG, Levine R (1993a). “Finance and growth: Schumpeter might be right”. Journal of Economics, 108, 1993a, pp.717-738.
  • Levine, Ross, “Financial Development and Economic Growth:Views and Agenda”, Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, Vol:35, No.2, June 1997, pp.688-726.
  • Levine, R. & Zervos, S., Stock Market Development and Long-Run Growth, World Bank Economic Review, 10(2), 1996, 323-39.
  • Levine, Ross, Loayza, Norman, Beck, Thorsten, Financial intermediation and growth: Causality and causes, Journal of Monetary Economies, Vol.46, Issue , August 2000, p.31-77.
  • Levine, R., “Denying Foreign Bank Entry: Implications for Bank Interest Margins”, University of Minnesota 2003.
  • Lewis, Arthur, The Theory of Economic Growth, George Allen and Unwin, London, 1955, pp.453.
  • Liu X, Song H, Romilly P., “An empirical investigation of the causal relationship between openness and economic growth in China”. Applied Economics, 29, 1997, pp.1679-1686.
  • Lucas, Robert, E., “On the Mechanics of Economic Development.” Journal of Monetary Economics, 1988, 22: 3-42.
  • Luzt, Mina, Baliamoune, “Financial Development and Income in Developing Countries”, Working Paper Series, ICER, University of North Florida, No.9, 2010.
  • McKinnon RI., “Money and Capital in Economic Development”, Brookings Institution, Washington DC, 1973.
  • Müslümov, A. ve Aras, G., “Sermaye Piyasası Gelişmesi ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasında Nedensellik İlişkisi: OECD Ülkeleri Örneği”, İktisat İşletme Finans,2002, 17(198), 90- 100.
  • Ndebbio, J.E. U., “Financial Deepening, Economic Growth and Development: Evidence from Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries”. African Economic Research Consortium, AERC Research Paper 142, August 2004.
  • Obstfeld, M., The Logic of Currency Crises, NBER Working Paper 4640, 1994.
  • Öztürk, Nurettin, Darıcı, Havva, Kılıç, Kesikoğlu, Ferdi, “Ekonomik Büyüme ve Finansal Gelişme İlişkisi:Gelişmekte Olan Piyasalar İçin Bir Panel Nedensellik Analizi”, Marmara Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, Cilt XXX, Sayı I, 2011, s. 53-69.
  • Patrick, Hugh, T., “Financial Development and Economic Growth in Underdeveloped Countries”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, The University of Chicago Press, Vol. 14, No. 2. (Jan., 1966), pp. 174-189.
  • Ram R (1999). “Financial Development and Economic Growth: Additional Evidence”. Journal of Development Studies, 35: 164-174.
  • Outreville, J. F., “Financial Development, Human Capital and Political Stability”, UNCTAD, Discussion Papers, No: 142, 1999.
  • Robinson, Joan, “The Generalization of the General Theory” in the Rate of Interest, and Other Essays, Macmillan, London, 1952, pp.67-142.
  • Schich S, Pelgrin F (2002). “Financial Development and Iinvestment: Panel Data Evidence for OECD Countries from 1970 to 1997”. Applied Economics Letter, 9: 1-7.
  • Shaw ES., “Financial deepening in economic development”, Oxford University Press, 1973, London.
  • Soukhakian Nazanin, “Financial Development and Economic Growth in Iran: Evidence From Co-Integration and Causality Tests”, International Journal of Economic Perspectives,Volume 1, Issue 2, 2007, pp.56-63.
  • SPK (2011), “Türkiye Sermaye Piyasası 2011 Yılı Araştırma Raporu”, (serpam.istanbul.edu.tr/.../Türkiye-Sermaye-Piyasası-Raporu-20111.pd...,),(Erişim Tarihi: 09.02.2103).
  • Toda, H.Y., Yamamoto, T., “Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes”, Journal of Econometrics, 66, 1955, pp. 225-250.
  • World Bank (2011), Yüksek Büyümenin Sürdürülebilirliği: Yurtiçi Tasarrufların Rolü Türkiye Ülke Ekonomik Raporu”,(www.dpt.gov.tr/.../PortalControls/WebIcerikGosterim.aspx?Enc...),(Erişim Tarihi: 09.02.2013).
There are 48 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Gülçin Tapşın

Publication Date March 10, 2013
Published in Issue Year 2012 Issue: 57

Cite

APA Tapşın, G. (2013). Türkiye’de Finansal Gelişme ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi. Maliye Araştırma Merkezi Konferansları(57), 103-118.
AMA Tapşın G. Türkiye’de Finansal Gelişme ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi. Maliye Araştırma Merkezi Konferansları. March 2013;(57):103-118.
Chicago Tapşın, Gülçin. “Türkiye’de Finansal Gelişme Ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi”. Maliye Araştırma Merkezi Konferansları, no. 57 (March 2013): 103-18.
EndNote Tapşın G (March 1, 2013) Türkiye’de Finansal Gelişme ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi. Maliye Araştırma Merkezi Konferansları 57 103–118.
IEEE G. Tapşın, “Türkiye’de Finansal Gelişme ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi”, Maliye Araştırma Merkezi Konferansları, no. 57, pp. 103–118, March 2013.
ISNAD Tapşın, Gülçin. “Türkiye’de Finansal Gelişme Ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi”. Maliye Araştırma Merkezi Konferansları 57 (March 2013), 103-118.
JAMA Tapşın G. Türkiye’de Finansal Gelişme ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi. Maliye Araştırma Merkezi Konferansları. 2013;:103–118.
MLA Tapşın, Gülçin. “Türkiye’de Finansal Gelişme Ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi”. Maliye Araştırma Merkezi Konferansları, no. 57, 2013, pp. 103-18.
Vancouver Tapşın G. Türkiye’de Finansal Gelişme ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi. Maliye Araştırma Merkezi Konferansları. 2013(57):103-18.
asosindex_75_02 Maliye Araştırma Merkezi Konferasnları Dergisi Asos İndex tarafından taranmaktadır. http://www.asosindex.com/journal-view?id=155