THE RELATION BETWEEN AGE STRUCTURE AND SAVING RATE OF TURKEY: 1968-2006

Abstract

Determination of saving behavior can be sought as a main issue for economies and can be handled with an extensive perspective regarding the relation between other macro economic policy variables. In this paper, saving rate in Turkey with age structure dimension is examined. As economic theory supports, age explains savings rate. Within the context probable long run relation between them is based on Modigliani’s Life-cycle Model and in trying to shed light on the relation, cointegration tests were performed. The test results verify the relation and the empirical findings hold with life-cycle hypothesis of savings. That means, in Turkey, while stating any regulation to affect saving level, age structure influences are needed to be regarded.

Keywords

• Life-cycle Saving Model
• CRDW
• CRADF
• Johansen Test
• ECM
• Super Consistency

THE RELATION BETWEEN AGE STRUCTURE AND SAVING RATE OF TURKEY: 1968-2006

Abstract

Ekonomiler için tasarruf davranışının belirlenmesi haklı olarak temel bir sorun olarak görülebilmekte ve diğer makro iktisadi politika değişkenleri ile ilişkisi bağlamında geniş bir perspektifte ele alınabilmektedir. Bu çalışma Türkiye’deki tasarruf oranını yaş yapısı boyutuyla incelemektedir. İktisat teorisinin de desteklediği gibi yaş, tasarruf oranını açıklar. Bu bağlamda değişkenler arasındaki olası ilişki Lifecycle Modeline dayandırılmıştır ve bu ilişki kointegrasyon testleri ile açıklanmaya çalışılmıştır. Test sonuçları ilişkiyi doğrulamaktadır ve deneysel bulgular da tasarruf hipotezine uymaktadır. Turkiye’de düzenlemeler yapılırken tasarruf seviyesine etki etmek için yaş yapısının etkisinin gözönüne alınması gerekmektedir. 

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