INVESTIGATION OF LONG-RUN REAL EXCHANGE RATES: THE CASE OF TURKEY

Abstract

ÖZET

Bu calısmada Turkiye'nin uzun donem reel doviz kurlarıı hareketi Anwar Shaikh tarafıdan gelistirilmis olan alternatif teorik cerceve icinde incelenmistir. Ampirik olarak; uzun donem reel doviz kurları reel birim emek maliyet rasyolarıve reel faiz oranlarıarasıda kointegrasyon iliskisinin kurulmasııgerektiren bu modelin temel hipotezi, uzun donem reel doviz kurlarıı ticaret yapan ulkeler arasıda fiyat duzeylerinden ziyade kar oranlarııesitleyecek yonde hareket ettiğdir. Turkiye'nin 1970' den 2004'e uzanan ceyrek donemlik verileri icin yapımı olan bu uygulamanı ampirik sonuclarıoldukca tatmin edicidir.

Keywords

• Reel Efektif Döviz Kurları, Reel Birim Emek

References

1. Books
2. Antonopoulos, Rania. (1997). An Alternate Theory of Real Exchange Rate Determination for the Greek Economy, Unpublished PhD Dissertation, New School University, New York.
3. Roman, Manuel. (1997). Growth and Stagna- tion of the Spanish Economy, The Long Wave: 1954
4. , Aldershot, Hants, U.K.: Averbury. Periodicals
5. Antonopoulos, Rania. (1999). A Classical Ap- proach to Real Exchange Rate Determination With an Application for the Case of Greece. Review of Radical Political Economics, Vol. 31, No. 3, 53-65.
6. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen. & O. Kara. (2000). Exchange rate overshooting in Turkey, Economics Letters Vol. 68 pp.89–93.
7. Cassel, Gustav. (March, 1916), The Present Situation of the Foreign Exchanges, The Economic Journal, Vol. 26, No. 101. pp. 62–65.
8. Erlat, Haluk. (2003). The Nature of Persis- tence in Turkish Real Exchange Rates, Emerging Merkets Finance and Trade, 39(2), 70–97.

9. Granger, C.W.J. (1988). Some Recent Devel- opments in a Concept of Causality, Journal of Econometrics, Vol.39, p.199-211.
10. Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors, Journal of Economic Dynam- ics and Control, Vol.12, pp.231-254.
11. Johansen, S. & K. Juselius. (1990). Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegra- tion with Applications to the Demand for Money, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol.52, pp. 169-210.
12. Korkmaz, Abdurrahman. & R. Yamak. (2006). A Monetary Approach to Turkish Balance of Pay- ments: Evidences from the Girton-Roper Model. 24-25 Mayıs 2007 İnönü Üniversitesi.
13. Shaikh, Anwar. (1980). The Laws of Interna- tional Exchange, Working Paper.
14. Shaikh, Anwar. & R. Antonopoulos. (Sep. 1998). Explaining Long Term Exchange Rate Be- havior in the United States and Japan, Working Pa- per, No. 250.
15. Shaikh, Anwar. (1999).Real Exchange Rates and the International Mobility of Capital, Working Paper No. 265, The Jerome Levy Economics Institute of Bard College.
16. Shaikh, Anwar. (2002). Productivity, Capital Flows, and the Decline of the Canadian Dollar: An Alternate Approach, Online version: http://homepage.newschool.edu/~AShaikh/
17. Shaikh, Anwar. (1996). Free Trade Unem- ployment and Economic Policy, in Global Unem- ployment: Loss of Jobs in the ‘90’s, J.Eatwell (ed.), M.E. Sharpe, Armonk, New York.
18. Shaikh, Anwar. (2008). Competition and In- dustrial Rates of Return, http://homepage.newschool. edu/~AShaikh/Ajitfest%20galley%20cha09%20June% 202008.pdf
19. Yıldırım, Aynur. (2007). Samuelson-Balassa Hipotezi ve Reel Döviz Kuru: Türkiye, ABD, İngil- tere, Fransa ve Almanya için Sınanması. Finans Po- litik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, Cilt.44, Sayı.509
20. Yıldırım, Oğuz. (Mart 2003). Döviz Kurları Çerçevesinde Satınalma Gücü Paritesinin Zaman Serisi Analizi ve Türkiye Ekonomisi Uygulaması” Türkiye Bankalar Birliği.