POTENTIAL RISKS ON MORTGAGE FORECLOSURE RATE in TURKEY

Abstract

Mortgage sitemi gelişmiş ülkelerde yaygın şekilde uygulanan bir konut edinme sistemidir. Türkiye'de de mortgage siteminin uygulanması düşünülmekledir. Mortgage sisteminde en önemli nokta mortgage faiz oranının doğru bir şekilde belirlenmesidir. Faiz oranının doğru belirlenmesi piyasanın etkin bir şekilde işlemesine yarayacağı gibi sistemin gelişmesine de faydalı olacağı açıktır. Bu çalışmada mortgage faiz oranı üzerindeki temel risklerden hareket edilerek türkiye ekonomisinde bu risklerin trendinin ne olabileceği zaman serisi tahmin metodu yardımıyla ortaya konmuş ve sistemin bu anlamda Türkiye'de işleyip işleyemeyeceği açıklanmaya çalışılmıştır.

                                  ABSTRACT

Mortgage system is a house acquiring system which is implemented in developed countries widely. Mortgage system is also intended to be implemented in Turkey. The most important issue in mortgage system is to determine the mortgage interest rate accurately. It is clear that the accurate determination of the interest rate shall Uchedule efficient operation of the market as well as it shall be beneficial for development of the system. In this study, the trend of the basic risks over mortgage interest rate in the economy of Turkey has been put forth by means of time sequence estimation method and it has been tried to be explained whether this system shall operate properly in Turkey or not, in this sense.

Keywords

• -

References

1. Acher, W. And P. Elmer 1999 "Determinants Of Multifamily Mortgage Default," FDIC Working Papers Vol. LXXXXVTV No: I i . pp 1-56
2. Alp, A l i 2001 Modern Konut Finansmanı, Ankara: Sermaye Piyasası Kurulu Yayını
3. Elmer, P. And S. Seeling 1998 'The Rising Long- Term Trend Of Single Family Mortgage Foreclosure Rates," FDIC Working Paper, Vol. LXXXXVTJI No: I i . pp 1-39
4. Engelhardt, Gary 2001 "Nominal Loss Aversion, Housing Equity Constraints, And Household Mobility: Evidence From The United States," Syracuse University Working Paper Series, pp. 1-60
5. Goldstin, Ronald 1993 "Reforming The Residental Mortgage Foreclosure Process," Real Estate Law Journal, pp.5-25
6. Longstaff, Francis "Optimal Recursive Refinancing And The Valuation Of Mortgage-Backed Securities," NBER Working Paper, Vol. MCCCCXXH. pp 1-55
7. Souter, Gavin 1991 " U . K Mortgage Defaults Hit Insurers," Business Insurance.
8. Stanton, Richard 1995 "Rational Prepayment And The Valuation Of Mortgage-Backed Securities," Review Financial Studies, pp. 677-708

9. Vandell, K . And Qiang Fu 2002 "Commercial Mortgage Prepayments Under Heterogeous Prepayment Penalty Structures," Journal Of Real Estate Research, pp. 1-50
10. Yongheng, Deng 1997 "Mortgage Termination: An Empirical Hazard Model With Stochastic Term Structure," Journal Of Real Estate And Economics, pp. 309-331