Monthly Average Wind Speed Forecasting in Giresun Province with Fuzzy Regression Functions Approach

Abdullah Yıldırım; Eren Baş

doi:10.35229/jaes.1022200

EN TR

Monthly Average Wind Speed Forecasting in Giresun Province with Fuzzy Regression Functions Approach

Abstract

In recent years, fuzzy inference systems have been used as an effective method for forecasting problems instead of classical time series methods. Fuzzy inference systems are based on fuzzy sets and use membership values as well as the original data. The fuzzy regression functions approach, which is one of the popular fuzzy inference systems, has different importance from many fuzzy inference systems with its features that it does not have a rule base and is easier to apply, unlike many fuzzy inference systems in the literature. In this study, both the monthly average wind speed forecasting of Giresun Province is performed for the first time in the literature and the fuzzy regression functions approach method is used for the first time in the literature for wind speed forecasting. To evaluate the performance of the fuzzy regression functions approach used to forecast monthly average wind speed in Giresun Province, the results obtained from many methods suggested in the literature for forecasting problems are compared. As a result of the evaluations, it is concluded that the forecasts obtained by the fuzzy regression functions approach are superior than some other methods in the literature.

Keywords

Fuzzy inference systems , Fuzzy regression functions approach , Forecasting , Giresun province , Wind speed.

Bulanık Regresyon Fonksiyonları Yaklaşımı ile Giresun İli Aylık Ortalama Rüzgâr Hızı Tahmini

Öz

Son yıllarda öngörü problemleri için klasik zaman serisi yöntemleri yerine bulanık çıkarım sistemleri etkin bir yöntem olarak kullanılmaya başlanmıştır. Bulanık çıkarım sistemleri, bulanık kümelere dayalıdır ve orijinal verilerin yanı sıra üyelik değerlerini de kullanır. Popüler bulanık çıkarım sistemlerinden biri olan bulanık regresyon fonksiyonları yaklaşımı, literatürdeki birçok bulanık çıkarım sisteminden farklı olarak kural tabanına sahip olmaması ve uygulanmasının daha kolay olması özellikleriyle birçok bulanık çıkarım sisteminden farklı bir öneme sahiptir. Bu çalışmada hem literatürde ilk kez Giresun ilinin aylık ortalama rüzgâr hızı tahmini yapılmakta hem de rüzgâr hızı tahmini için literatürde ilk kez bulanık regresyon fonksiyonları yaklaşımı yöntemi kullanılmaktadır. Giresun ili aylık ortalama rüzgar hızını tahmin etmek için kullanılan bulanık regresyon fonksiyonları yaklaşımının performansını değerlendirmek için, öngörü problemleri için literatürde önerilen birçok yöntemden elde edilen sonuçlar karşılaştırılmıştır. Yapılan değerlendirmeler sonucunda, bulanık regresyon fonksiyonları yaklaşımı ile elde edilen tahminlerin literatürdeki diğer birçok yöntemden daha üstün olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Bulanık çıkarım sistemleri , Bulanık regresyon fonksiyonları yaklaşımı , Öngörü , Giresun İli , Rüzgar hızı.

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

-

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Abdullah Yıldırım This is me
0000-0002-5489-7330
Türkiye

Eren Baş ^*
0000-0002-0263-8804
Türkiye

Publication Date

March 31, 2022

Submission Date

November 11, 2021

Acceptance Date

January 13, 2022

Published in Issue

Year 1970 Volume: 7 Number: 1

DOI

https://doi.org/10.35229/jaes.1022200

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA87GR37MT

APA

Yıldırım, A., & Baş, E. (2022). Monthly Average Wind Speed Forecasting in Giresun Province with Fuzzy Regression Functions Approach. Journal of Anatolian Environmental and Animal Sciences, 7(1), 27-32. https://doi.org/10.35229/jaes.1022200

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Zaman Serisi Öngörüsü için Derin Bulanık Fonksiyonlar Yaklaşımı

Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi

https://doi.org/10.37880/cumuiibf.1749594

EBSCOHost Scilit CABI

JAES/AAS-Journal of Anatolian Environmental and Animal Sciences/Anatolian Academic Sciences&Anadolu Çevre ve Hayvancılık Dergisi/Anadolu Akademik Bilimler-AÇEH/AAS