Can Recovered Paper Consumption Be a Leading Indicator for Forest Ecological Footprint? A Study on Türkiye

Year 2025, Volume: 10 Issue: 5, 552 - 560, 30.09.2025

Pınar Koç , Hüseyin Özalp

https://doi.org/10.35229/jaes.1691446

Abstract

The purpose of this study, which covers the period 1990-2022, is to determine whether recovered paper consumption can use for forest ecological footprint by analyzing causality relationship between recovered paper consumption (RPC), national income (GDP), rate of urbanization (UR), and forest ecological footprint (FEP). Toda Yamamoto Causality Test, and Fourier Toda Yamamoto Causality Test considering smooth structural breaks were applied to analyze the causality relationship between the variables. According to the results of Toda Yamamoto Causality Test, there is one-way causality relationship from the rate of urbanization to the forest ecological footprint and, recovered paper consumption. The structural breaks affect the causality relationships between the variables. According to the results of Fourier Toda Yamamoto Causality Test, while there is bidirectional causality relationship between the rate of urbanization and forest ecological footprint, there is unidirectional causality from the rate of urbanization to the forest ecological footprint, and national income. There is no any causality relationship between the recovered paper consumption and the forest ecological footprint.The results indicate that past recovered paper consumption will not provide useful information for forest ecological footprint projections. And besides, past urbanization trends can be used as leading indicators to estimate forest ecological footprint, national income, and recycled paper consumption. In this context, supporting sustainable city projects and adopting policies that will strengthen the economic structure in rural areas is important to reduce the deterioration in quality of life due to unplanned urbanization and to increase the effectiveness of the sustainable development process.

Keywords

Forest ecological footprint , national income , recovered paper consumpiton , urbanization

Geri Kazanılmış Kağıt Tüketimi Orman Ekolojik Ayak İzi için Öncü Bir Gösterge Olabilir mi? Türkiye Üzerine Bir Araştırma

Abstract

1990-2022 dönemini kapsayan bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de geri kazanılmış kağıt tüketimi (RPC), ulusal gelir (GDP), kentleşme oranı (UR) ve orman ekolojik ayak izi(FEP) arasındaki nedensellik ilişkilerini analiz ederek, geri kazanılmış kağıt tüketiminin, orman ekolojik ayak izi öngörüleri için kullanılıp kullanılamayacağını analiz etmektir Değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkilerini analiz etmek için Toda Yamamoto Nedensellik testi ve yumuşak yapısal kırılmaları dikkate alan Fourier Toda Yamamoto Nedensellik Testleri kullanılmıştır. Toda Yamamoto Nedensellik Testi sonuçlarına göre, kentleşme oranından, orman ekolojik ayak izine doğru ve geri kazanılmış kağıt tüketimine doğru tek yönlü nedensellik bulunmaktadır. Yapısal kırılmalar değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkilerini etkilemektedir. Fourier Toda Yamamoto Nedensellik Testi sonuçlarına göre, kentleşme oranı ile orman ekolojik ayak izi arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi varken, kentleşme oranından geri kazanılmış kağıt tüketimine ve ulusal gelire doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi vardır. Geri kazanılmış kağıt tüketimi ile orman ekolojik ayak izi arasında herhangi bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmamaktadır. Sonuçlar geçmiş dönem geri kazanılmış kağıt tüketiminin orman ekolojik ayak izi öngörüleri için öncü gösterge olarak kullanılamayacağını göstermektedir. Ayrıca, geçmiş dönem kentleşme trendleri orman ekolojik ayak izi, ulusal gelir ve geri kazanılmış kâğıt tüketimi tahminleri için öncü gösterge olarak kullanılabilir. Bu bağlamda, plansız kentleşmenin yaşam kalitesinde meydana getirdiği bozulmaları azaltmak ve sürdürülebilir kalkınma sürecinde etkinliği artırmak için sürdürülebilir şehir projelerinin desteklenmesi ve kırsal kesimde ekonomik yapıyı güçlendirecek politikaların benimsenmesi önemlidir.

Keywords

geri kazanılmış kağıt tüketimi , kentleşme , orman akolojik ayak izi , ulusal gelir

Ethical Statement

Çalışmada etik ilkelere uygun hareket edilmiştir.

Supporting Institution

yok

References

• Al-Wabel, M.I., Ahmad, M., Rasheed, H., Rafique, M.I., Ahmad, J., & Usman, A.R.A. (2022). Environmental ıssues due to open dumping and landfilling, In: Pathak, P. & Palani, S.G. (ed) Circular economy in municipal solid waste landfilling: biomining & leachate treatment . radionuclides and heavy metals in the environment, 65-93p, Springer, Cham.
• Akkemik, Ü., & Kavgacı, A. (2022). Türkiye’de ormansızlaşma ve orman bozulması. In: Atmiş, E. (ed) Türkiye’de orman bozulması, 91-105p, Türkiye Ormancılar Derneği, Ankara.
• Aming-Hayudini, M.A.E., Jaddani, M.Y.T., & Habibun, S.I. (2022). Practices on waste disposal and its environmental effects. Internatıonal Journal of Multidisciplinary: Applied Business And Education Research, 3(8), 1569-1576. DOI: 10.11594/ijmaber.03.08.19
• Ateş, E. (2021). Döngüsel ekonomi kapsamında GSYİH ile geri dönüşüm ilişkisi: Avrupa Birliği ülkeleri örneği. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 67, 125-137. DOI: 10.51290/dpusbe.782974
• Awasthi, A.K., Wang, M., Awasthi, M.K., Wang, Z., & Li, J. (2018). Environmental pollution and human body burden from improper recycling of e-waste in China: a short-review. Environmental Pollution, 243, 1310-1316. DOI: 10.1016/j.envpol.2018.08.037
• Aydın, M., Koç, P., & Tümay, M. (2023) Investigating the environmental kuznets curve hypothesis with recovered paper consumption, human development index, urbanization, and forest footprint. International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 20, 9053-9064. DOI: 10.1007/s13762-023-05049-7
• Bao, Z., & Lu, W. (2023). Applicability of the environmental kuznets curve to construction waste management: a panel analysis of 27 European economies. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 188, 106667, DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2022.106667
• Boubellouta, B., & Kusch_Brandt, S. (2020). Testing the environmental kuznets curve hypothesis for ewaste in the EU28+2 Countries. Journal of Cleaner Production, 123371, DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.123371
• Boubellouta, B., & Kusch_Brandt, S. (2023). Driving factors of e-waste recycling rate in 30 european countries: new evidence using a panel quantile regression of the EKC hypothesis coupled with the STIRPAT model. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 25(8), 7533-7560. DOI: 10.1007/s10668-022-02356-w.
• Chen, C., & Pao, H. (2024). Circular economy and ecological footprint: a disaggregated analysis for the EU. Economic Indicators, 160, 111809. DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.111809.
• Dada, M.A., Obaigbena, A., Majemite, M.T., Oliha, J.S., & Biu, P.W. (2024). Innovatıve approaches to waste resource management: ımplıcatıons for envıronmental sustaınabılıty and policy. Engineering Science & Technology Journal, 5(1), 1,115-127. DOI: 10.51594/estj.v5i1.731
• Diacono, M., Persiani, A., Testani, E., Montemurro, F., & Ciaccia, C. (2019). Recycling agricultural wastes and by-products in organic farming: biofertilizer production, yield performance and carbon footprint analysis. Sustainability, 11(14), DOI: 10.3390/su11143824
• Du, S., Zhang, S., Wang, J., Wang, M., Lv, Z., Xu, Z., Ma, L., Liu, C., Wang, J., Liu, J., & Liu, B. (2024). Sustainable recycling of aluminum scraps to recycled aerospace-grade 7075 aluminum alloy sheets. Sustainable Materials and Technologies, 41, DOI: 10.1016/j.susmat.2024.e01100
• Enders, W., & Lee, J. (2012). The flexible fourier form and dickey-fuller type unit root tests. Economic Letters, 117, 196-199. DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2012.04.081
• Grosse, F., & Mainguy, G. (2010). Is recycling part of the solution? the role of recycling ın an expanding society and a world of finite resources. SAPIENS, 3(1), 1-17.
• Izquierdo-Horna, L., Kahhat, R., & Vázquez-Rowe, I. (2022). Reviewing the influence of sociocultural, environmental and economic variables to forecast municipal solid waste (MSW) generation. Sustainable Production and Consumption, 33, 809-819. DOI: 10.1016/j.spc.2022.08.008
• Jagun, Z.T., Daud, D., Ajayi, O., Samsudin, S., & Jubril, A.J. (2023). Waste management practices in developing countries: a socio-economic perspective. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30, 116644-116655. DOI: 10.1016/j.spc.2022.08.008
• Kanwal, Q., Zeng, X., & Li, J. (2023).Measuring the recycling potential of industrial waste for longterm Sustainability. Humanities & Social Science Communications, 10, 471, DOI: 10.1057/s41599- 023-01942-1
• Knäble, D., Puente, E.Q., Pérez-Cornejo, C., & Baumgärtler, T. (2022). The impact of the circular economy on sustainable development: A European panel data approach. Sustainable Production and Consumption, 34, 233-243. DOI: 10.1016/j.spc.2022.09.016
• Kocakaya, G. (2023). Investigation of plastic waste with environmental kuznets hypothesis: an empirical study on European Union countries. Pamukkale University Journal of Social Sciences Institute, 57, 179-188. DOI: 10.30794/pausbed.1214090
• Kumar, V. (2017). Recycling of waste and used papers: a useful contribution in conservation of environment : A case study. Asian Journal of Water, Environment and Pollution, 14(4), 31-36; DOI: 10.3233/AJW-170034
• Lamma, O.A. (2021). The ımpact of recycling in preserving the environment. International Journal of Applied Research, 7(11), 297-302. Lorang, E., Lobianco, A., & Delacote, P. (2023). Increasing paper and cardboard recycling: impacts on the forest sector and carbon emissions. Environ Model Assess, 28, 189-200. DOI: 10.1007/s10666-022-09850-5
• Misman, M., Alwi, S.R.W., & Manan, Z.A., (2008). State-of-the-art for paper recycling. International Conference on Science and Technology 2008, 12- 13 December 2008, UiTM, Penang, Malaysia. Nathaniel, S. P. (2021). Ecological footprint, energy use, trade, and urbanization linkage in Indonesia. GeoJournal, 86, 2057-2070, DOI: 10.1007/s10708-020-10175-7
• Nazlıoğlu, S., Gormus A., & Soytas, U. (2016). Oil prices and real estate investment trusts (reits): Gradual shift causality and volatility transmission analysis. Energy Economics, 1-28. DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2016.09.009
• Okudo, A., Omojolaibi, J.A., & Mubarak, O. (2021). Impact of waste recycling on environmental quality and revenue generation: case study of University of Lagos, Nigeria. International Journal of Contemporary Research and Review, 12(08), 20211-20227.
• Ozbay, G., Jones, M., Gadde, M., Isah, S., & Attarwala, T. (2021). Design and operation of effective landfills with minimal effects on the environment and human health. Journal of Environmental and Public Health, 1-13. DOI: 10.1155/2021/6921607
• Sadati, S.A., Getabi, P.Z., & Rabbani, M. (2024). A sustainable modelling for solid waste management using analytical hierarchy process, Monte Carlo simulation and NSGA-III. International Journal of Systems Science: Operations & Logistics, 11(1), DOI: 10.1080/23302674.2023.2301603
• Salman, M., Zha, D., & Wang, G. (2022). Interplay between urbanization and ecological footprints: differential roles of indigenous and foreign innovations in ASEAN-4. Environmental Science & Policy, 127, 161-180, DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2021.10.016
• Senarathna, W.G.C.M., Sulaksha, L.G.T., Weerarathna, D.M., Jayathma, W.M.V.A., Gamage, D.G.M.L, Thennakoon, T.M.T.N, Hewage, H.T.M., Panagoda, L.P.S.S., Sandunika, D.M.I., & Perera, M.D.V. (2023). Paper recycling for a sustainable future: global trends. Journal of Research Technology & Engineering, 4(3), 169-186.
• Sıfır Atık Yönetmeliği (2019). https://www.mevzuat.gov.tr/mevzuat? MevzuatNo=32659&MevzuatTur=7&MevzuatT ertip=5, Erişim Tarihi:24.06.2025.
• Söyler, H. (2025). Gerze Meslek Yüksekokulu’nun karbon ayak izi hesaplaması, monte carlo analizi ve sürdürülebilirlik stratejileri. Journal of Anatolian Environmental and Animal Sciences, 10(4),328- 337. DOI: 10.35229/jaes.1630670
• Toda, H.Y., & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrale processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66, 225-250.
• Tomasik, B. (2003). Environmental benefits of recycled paper. https://briantomasik.com/environmentalbenefits-recycled-paper/ (Erişim Tarihi: 28.06.2025).
• Ullah, A., Tekbaş, M., & Doğan, M. (2023). The impact of economic growth, natural resources, urbanization and biocapacity on the ecological footprint: the case of Turkey. Sustainability, 15(17), DOI: 10.3390/su151712855.
• Ulucan, M., & Alyamaç, K.E. (2023). Geri dönüşüm agregalı betonların çevresel etki değerlendirmelerinin yapılması. Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi Fen ve Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, 23, 438-447. DOI: 10.35414/akufemubid.1133802
• Uludüz, Ç., Sipahi, S., & Kulözü, N. (2024). Reducing Carbon Footprint of Pop-Art Chair Designs By Ecodesign Strategies. Journal of Anatolian Environmental and Animal Sciences,9(4),676- 686, DOI: 10.35229/jaes.1514795
• UNEP. (2024). Beyond an age of waste-Global waste management outlook 2024. https://www.unep.org/resources/global-wastemanagement-outlook-2024 (Erişim Tarihi:15.05.2025).
• World Bank. (2018). What a waste 2.0 a global snapshot of solid waste management to 2050. World Bank Series, USA, 231p.
• WWF. (2024). Pulp and Paper. Pulp and Paper | Industries | WWF (worldwildlife.org) (Erişim Tarihi: 22.03.2024).
• Yang, H., Ma, M., Thompson, J.R., & Flower, R.J. (2017). Waste management, informal recycling, environmental pollution, and public health. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 1-7. DOI: 10.1136/jech-2016-208597
• Yılmazer, M. (2024). Türkiye’de ekolojik ayak izinin belirleyicileri: STIRPAT modeli. İzmir İktisat Dergisi, 39(3), 637-657, DOI: 10.24988/ije.1373210
• Zhang, C., Hu, M., Di Maio, F., Sprecher, B., Yang, X., & Tukker, A. (2022). An overview of the waste hierarchy framework for analyzing the circularity in construction and demolition waste management in Europe.Science of Total Environment, 803, DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.149892