Research Article
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Year 2023, Volume: 4 Issue: 1, 16 - 29, 30.06.2023
https://doi.org/10.56430/japro.1197299

Abstract

References

  • Agriterra. (2012). Identification of livestock investment opportunities in Uganda. Retrieved Apr 23, 2022, from https://www.agriterra.org/assets/uploads/15820/Livestock%20market%20study.pdf
  • Akin, A. C., Tekindal, M. A., Arikan, M. S., & Çevrimli, M. B. (2020). Modelling of the milk supplied to the industry in Turkey through Box-Jenkins and Winters' Exponential Smoothing methods. Veteriner Hekimler Derneği Dergisi, 91(1), 49-60. https://doi.org/10.33188/vetheder.643824
  • Asteriou, D., & Hall, S. G. (2007). Applied econometrics. Macmillan International Higher Education.
  • Behnke, R., & Nakirya, M. (2012). The contribution of livestock to the Ugandan economy. Retrieved Apr 23, 2022, from https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/132642444.pdf
  • Celik, S. (2019). Modeling and estimation of potato production in Turkey with time series analysis. International Journal of Trend in Research Development, 6(5), 111-116.
  • DDA. (2020). Dairy Development Authority annual performance report FY 2019/20. Retrieved Apr 23, 2022, from https://dda.go.ug/assets/files/ANNUAL-PERFORMANCEREPORTFY2019-20.pdf
  • DDA. (2021). Dairy Development Authority annual report FY 2020/2021. Retrieved May 1, 2022, from https://dda.go.ug/assets/files/DDA-annulareport20-21.pdf
  • Eroğul, N. A., Bozoğlu, M., Topuz, B. K., & Başer, U. (2019). Forecasting the amount of beef production in Turkey. Tarım Ekonomisi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 5(2), 101-107.
  • Eştürk, Ö. (2021). Estimating milk production in Ardahan Province with ARIMA (Box-Jenkins) model. Journal of Applied Sciences of Mehmet Akif Ersoy University, 5(2), 271-281. https://doi.org/10.31200/makuubd.972489
  • FAO. (2022). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations data (FAOSTAT). Retrieved Apr 28, 2022, from http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data
  • Ganesan, M., Xavier, G., & Gupta, V. P. (2020). Forecasting of milk production in India by using time series auto regressive moving average model. Shodh Sanchar Bulletin, 10(38), 170-180.
  • Gujarati, D. N., & Dawn, C. P. (2009). Basic econometrics. McGrawHill Press.
  • Hassan, S. A., Abdelaziz, H. H., Ibrahim, A. H., & Musa, K. S. M. (2018). Milk production -forecasting in Khartoum State, Sudan. Journal of Agriculture and Research, 4(12), 6-13.
  • Hill, R. C., Griffiths, W. E., & Lim, G. C. (2018). Principles of econometrics. John Wiley & Sons.
  • Hussain, J. N., Alsukmany, A. M., & Mohammed, L. A. (2021). Modelling and forecasting of poultry production in Al-Hilla District in Iraq. PalArch's Journal of Archaeology of Egypt/Egyptology, 18(4), 633-642.
  • Kaygisiz, F., & Sezgin, F. H. (2017). Forecasting goat milk production in Turkey using Artificial Neural Networks and Box-Jenkins models. Animal Review, 4(3), 45-52. https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.ar.2017.43.45.52
  • Kunst, R. M. (2012). Econometric forecasting. Institute for Advanced Studies Vienna University of Vienna.
  • Mahapatra, S., & Satapathy, A. (2019). An application of box-jenkins methodology for forecasting of green gram productivity in Odisha. Journal of Pharmacognosy and Phytochemistry, 8(3), 4383-4387.
  • Masood, M. A., Raza, I., & Abid, S. (2018). Forecasting wheat production using time series models in Pakistan. Asian Journal of Agriculture Rural Development, 8(2), 172-177. https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.1005/2018.8.2/1005.2.172.177
  • Muhammed, O., & Zengin, Y. (2020). A comparative forecasting approach to forecast animal production: A case of Turkey. Lalahan Hayvancılık Araştırma Enstitüsü Dergisi, 60(1), 24-31.
  • Oni, O., & Akanle, Y. (2018). Comparison of exponential smoothing models for forecasting cassava production. International Journal of Scientific Research in Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, 5(3), 65-68. https://doi.org/10.26438/ijsrmss/v5i3.6568
  • Putri, R. T., Sukiyono, K., & Sumartono, E. (2019). Estimation of Indonesian Beef Price Forecasting Model. AGRITROPICA : Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 2(1), 46-56. https://doi.org/10.31186/j.agritropica.2.1.46-55
  • Rahman, N. M. F., Hasan, M. M., Hossain, M. I., Baten, M., Hosen, S., Ali, M., & Kabir, M. (2016). Forecasting aus rice area and production in Bangladesh using Box-Jenkins approach. Bangladesh Rice Journal, 20(1), 1-10.
  • Sánchez-López, E., Pérez-Linares, C., Figueroa-Saavedra, F., & Barreras-Serrano, A. (2015). A short term forecast for Mexican imports of United States beef using a univariate time series model. The Journal of Animal and Plant Sciences, 25(5), 1283-1289.
  • Sankar, T. J. (2014). Design of a stochastic forecasting model for egg production. International Journal of Innovative Science, Engineering, and Technology, 1(6), 319-325.
  • Suleman, N., & Sarpong, S. (2012). Forecasting milled rice production in Ghana using Box-Jenkins approach. International Journal of Agricultural Management and Development, 2(2), 79-84.
  • Taye, B. A., Alene, A. A., Nega, A. K., & Yirsaw, B. G. (2021). Time series analysis of cow milk production at Andassa dairy farm, west Gojam zone, Amhara region, Ethiopia. Modeling Earth Systems and Environment, 7(1), 181-189. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-020-00946-z
  • UBOS. (2022). Uganda Bureau of Statistics, explore statistics. Retrieved Apr 25, 2022, from https://www.ubos.org/explore-statistics/30/
  • UIA. (2016). Uganda Investment Authority, agriculture (Beef). Retrieved Apr 28, 2022, from https://www.ugandainvest.go.ug/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/AGRICULTURE-Beef.pdf
  • Waiswa, D., & Akullo, J. (2021). Implications of gender discrimination for household food security among small holder dairy farmers in Nakaloke, Mbale District, Uganda. Research Journal of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences, 9(2), 1-11.
  • Waiswa, D., & Günlü, A. (2022). Economic analysis of dairy production in Uganda, a case study on the performance of dairy cattle enterprises in Southwestern Uganda. Asian Journal of Agriculture, 6(2), 61-67. https://doi.org/10.13057/asianjagric/g060202
  • Waiswa, D., Günlü, A., & Mat, B. (2021). Development opportunities for livestock and dairy cattle production in Uganda: A review. Research Journal of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences, 9(1), 18-24.

Modeling and Forecasting Uganda’s Beef and Cattle Milk Production using the Box-Jenkins Methodology

Year 2023, Volume: 4 Issue: 1, 16 - 29, 30.06.2023
https://doi.org/10.56430/japro.1197299

Abstract

Beef and cattle milk production play a significant role in reducing hunger, malnutrition, and rural poverty, improving rural livelihoods, creating employment opportunities, and supporting the overall development of Uganda's economy. This study was conducted to find a suitable ARIMA model for forecasting Uganda’s beef and cattle milk production using annual time series data from 1961 to 2020, extracted from the Food and Agriculture Organization Corporate Statistical Database (FAOSTAT). Following patterns of the Autocorrelation Function and Partial Autocorrelation Function plots of the differenced series, 4 tentative ARIMA models were identified for milk production, i.e., ARIMA (0,1,0), ARIMA (1,1,0), ARIMA (0,1,1), and ARIMA (1,1,1). While 3 tentative ARIMA models were identified for beef production, i.e., ARIMA (1,1,1), ARIMA (1,1,0), and ARIMA (0,1,1). ARIMA (0,1,0) model was selected to be the most suitable for forecasting cattle milk production because it had the smallest MAPE and Normalized BIC values. On the other hand, ARIMA (1,1,0) was selected to be the best model for forecasting beef production because it had the smallest normalized BIC value and a significant coefficient of the autoregressive component. Forecasts show that milk production will increase at an annual average rate of 1.63%, while beef production will increase at an annual average rate of 0.39% in the five-year forecast period (2021-2025). These findings are important in designing strategies to improve the beef and dairy livestock sub-sectors in Uganda.

References

  • Agriterra. (2012). Identification of livestock investment opportunities in Uganda. Retrieved Apr 23, 2022, from https://www.agriterra.org/assets/uploads/15820/Livestock%20market%20study.pdf
  • Akin, A. C., Tekindal, M. A., Arikan, M. S., & Çevrimli, M. B. (2020). Modelling of the milk supplied to the industry in Turkey through Box-Jenkins and Winters' Exponential Smoothing methods. Veteriner Hekimler Derneği Dergisi, 91(1), 49-60. https://doi.org/10.33188/vetheder.643824
  • Asteriou, D., & Hall, S. G. (2007). Applied econometrics. Macmillan International Higher Education.
  • Behnke, R., & Nakirya, M. (2012). The contribution of livestock to the Ugandan economy. Retrieved Apr 23, 2022, from https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/132642444.pdf
  • Celik, S. (2019). Modeling and estimation of potato production in Turkey with time series analysis. International Journal of Trend in Research Development, 6(5), 111-116.
  • DDA. (2020). Dairy Development Authority annual performance report FY 2019/20. Retrieved Apr 23, 2022, from https://dda.go.ug/assets/files/ANNUAL-PERFORMANCEREPORTFY2019-20.pdf
  • DDA. (2021). Dairy Development Authority annual report FY 2020/2021. Retrieved May 1, 2022, from https://dda.go.ug/assets/files/DDA-annulareport20-21.pdf
  • Eroğul, N. A., Bozoğlu, M., Topuz, B. K., & Başer, U. (2019). Forecasting the amount of beef production in Turkey. Tarım Ekonomisi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 5(2), 101-107.
  • Eştürk, Ö. (2021). Estimating milk production in Ardahan Province with ARIMA (Box-Jenkins) model. Journal of Applied Sciences of Mehmet Akif Ersoy University, 5(2), 271-281. https://doi.org/10.31200/makuubd.972489
  • FAO. (2022). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations data (FAOSTAT). Retrieved Apr 28, 2022, from http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data
  • Ganesan, M., Xavier, G., & Gupta, V. P. (2020). Forecasting of milk production in India by using time series auto regressive moving average model. Shodh Sanchar Bulletin, 10(38), 170-180.
  • Gujarati, D. N., & Dawn, C. P. (2009). Basic econometrics. McGrawHill Press.
  • Hassan, S. A., Abdelaziz, H. H., Ibrahim, A. H., & Musa, K. S. M. (2018). Milk production -forecasting in Khartoum State, Sudan. Journal of Agriculture and Research, 4(12), 6-13.
  • Hill, R. C., Griffiths, W. E., & Lim, G. C. (2018). Principles of econometrics. John Wiley & Sons.
  • Hussain, J. N., Alsukmany, A. M., & Mohammed, L. A. (2021). Modelling and forecasting of poultry production in Al-Hilla District in Iraq. PalArch's Journal of Archaeology of Egypt/Egyptology, 18(4), 633-642.
  • Kaygisiz, F., & Sezgin, F. H. (2017). Forecasting goat milk production in Turkey using Artificial Neural Networks and Box-Jenkins models. Animal Review, 4(3), 45-52. https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.ar.2017.43.45.52
  • Kunst, R. M. (2012). Econometric forecasting. Institute for Advanced Studies Vienna University of Vienna.
  • Mahapatra, S., & Satapathy, A. (2019). An application of box-jenkins methodology for forecasting of green gram productivity in Odisha. Journal of Pharmacognosy and Phytochemistry, 8(3), 4383-4387.
  • Masood, M. A., Raza, I., & Abid, S. (2018). Forecasting wheat production using time series models in Pakistan. Asian Journal of Agriculture Rural Development, 8(2), 172-177. https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.1005/2018.8.2/1005.2.172.177
  • Muhammed, O., & Zengin, Y. (2020). A comparative forecasting approach to forecast animal production: A case of Turkey. Lalahan Hayvancılık Araştırma Enstitüsü Dergisi, 60(1), 24-31.
  • Oni, O., & Akanle, Y. (2018). Comparison of exponential smoothing models for forecasting cassava production. International Journal of Scientific Research in Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, 5(3), 65-68. https://doi.org/10.26438/ijsrmss/v5i3.6568
  • Putri, R. T., Sukiyono, K., & Sumartono, E. (2019). Estimation of Indonesian Beef Price Forecasting Model. AGRITROPICA : Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 2(1), 46-56. https://doi.org/10.31186/j.agritropica.2.1.46-55
  • Rahman, N. M. F., Hasan, M. M., Hossain, M. I., Baten, M., Hosen, S., Ali, M., & Kabir, M. (2016). Forecasting aus rice area and production in Bangladesh using Box-Jenkins approach. Bangladesh Rice Journal, 20(1), 1-10.
  • Sánchez-López, E., Pérez-Linares, C., Figueroa-Saavedra, F., & Barreras-Serrano, A. (2015). A short term forecast for Mexican imports of United States beef using a univariate time series model. The Journal of Animal and Plant Sciences, 25(5), 1283-1289.
  • Sankar, T. J. (2014). Design of a stochastic forecasting model for egg production. International Journal of Innovative Science, Engineering, and Technology, 1(6), 319-325.
  • Suleman, N., & Sarpong, S. (2012). Forecasting milled rice production in Ghana using Box-Jenkins approach. International Journal of Agricultural Management and Development, 2(2), 79-84.
  • Taye, B. A., Alene, A. A., Nega, A. K., & Yirsaw, B. G. (2021). Time series analysis of cow milk production at Andassa dairy farm, west Gojam zone, Amhara region, Ethiopia. Modeling Earth Systems and Environment, 7(1), 181-189. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-020-00946-z
  • UBOS. (2022). Uganda Bureau of Statistics, explore statistics. Retrieved Apr 25, 2022, from https://www.ubos.org/explore-statistics/30/
  • UIA. (2016). Uganda Investment Authority, agriculture (Beef). Retrieved Apr 28, 2022, from https://www.ugandainvest.go.ug/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/AGRICULTURE-Beef.pdf
  • Waiswa, D., & Akullo, J. (2021). Implications of gender discrimination for household food security among small holder dairy farmers in Nakaloke, Mbale District, Uganda. Research Journal of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences, 9(2), 1-11.
  • Waiswa, D., & Günlü, A. (2022). Economic analysis of dairy production in Uganda, a case study on the performance of dairy cattle enterprises in Southwestern Uganda. Asian Journal of Agriculture, 6(2), 61-67. https://doi.org/10.13057/asianjagric/g060202
  • Waiswa, D., Günlü, A., & Mat, B. (2021). Development opportunities for livestock and dairy cattle production in Uganda: A review. Research Journal of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences, 9(1), 18-24.
There are 32 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Agricultural Engineering (Other)
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Denis Waiswa 0000-0003-1721-8535

Publication Date June 30, 2023
Submission Date October 31, 2022
Published in Issue Year 2023 Volume: 4 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Waiswa, D. (2023). Modeling and Forecasting Uganda’s Beef and Cattle Milk Production using the Box-Jenkins Methodology. Journal of Agricultural Production, 4(1), 16-29. https://doi.org/10.56430/japro.1197299