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From Realignment to Dealignment : The Changing Electoral Behavior in the United States

Year 1999, Issue: 9, 3 - 16, 01.04.1999

Abstract

This article provides a critical survey of the literature concerning the notion of realignment and examines to what an extent this theory can still account for electoral changes in present-day United States. Specifically, it checks the views of the major works on this topic against political developments and argues that, despite significant revisions, such a formulation no longer holds and adealignment perspective better reflects the contemporary dynamics of the American party system.

References

  • Abramowitz, Alan I. “Explaining Success and Failure in the 1998 Midterm Elections: Comparing the Influence of Swing Voters and Core Party Supporters.” PS 32.1 (March 1999): 60-61.
  • Abramson, Paul R., John H. Aldrich, and David W. Rohde. Change and Continuity in the 1980 Elections. Washington, DC: CQ Press, 1982.
  • -----. Change and Continuity in the 1984 Elections. Washington, DC: CQ Press, 1987.
  • -----. Change and Continuity in the 1996 and 1998 Elections. Washington, DC: CQ Press, 1999.
  • Bartels, Larry M. “Partisanship and Voting Behavior, 1952-1996.” American Journal of Political Science 44.1 (January 2000): 35-50.
  • Beck, Paul Allen. “The Changing American Party Coalitions.” In Green and Shea. 28-49.
  • -----. “Party Realignment in America: The View from the States.” Party Realignment and State Politics. Ed. Maureen Moakley. Columbus: Ohio UP, 1992. 259-278.
  • -----. “A Socialization Theory of Partisan Realignment.” Richard D. Niemi et al., The Politics of Future Citizens. San Francisco: Josey-Bass, 1974. 199-219.
  • Berg, John C. “Beyond a Third Party: The Other Minor Parties in the 1996 Elections.” In Green and Shea. 212-228.
  • Brady, David W. Critical Elections and Congressional Policy Making. Stanford, CA: Stanford UP, 1988.
  • Burnham, Walter Dean. “The Changing Shape of the American Political Universe.” American Political Science Review 59.1 (March 1965): 7-28.
  • -----. Critical Elections and the Mainsprings of American Politics. New York: Norton, 1970.
  • -----. “Critical Realignment: Dead or Alive?” The End of Realignment? Interpreting American Electoral Eras. Ed. Byron E. Shafer. Madison: U of Wisconsin P, 1991. 101-139.
  • -----. “Realignment Lives: The 1994 Earthquake and Its Implications.” The Clinton Presidency: First Appraisals. Ed. Colin Campbell and Bert A. Rockman. Chatham, NJ: Chatham House, 1996. 363-395.
  • Busch, Andrew E. Horses in Midstream: US Midterm Elections and Their Consequences, 1894-1998. Pittsburgh: U of Pittsburgh P, 1999.
  • Campbell, Angus et al., The American Voter. New York: Wiley, 1960.
  • Carmines, Edward G., John P. McIver, and James A. Stimson. “Unrealized Partnership: A Theory of Dealignment.” Journal of Politics 49.2 (May 1987): 376- 400.
  • Ceaser, James and Andrew Busch. Losing to Win: The 1996 Elections and American Politics. Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield, 1997.
  • -----. Upside Down and Inside Out: The 1992 Elections and American Politics. Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield, 1993.
  • Chubb, John E. and Paul E. Peterson. “Realignment and Institutionalization.” The New Directions in American Politics. Ed. John E. Chubb and Paul E. Peterson. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1985. 1-30.
  • Claggett, William, William Flanigan, and Nancy Zingale. “Nationalization of the American Electorate.” American Political Science Review 78.1 (March 1984): 77- 91.
  • Clymer, Adam and Janet Elder. “Poll Finds Greater Confidence in Democrats.” New York Times (10 November 1999): A1, A19.
  • Clubb, Jerome M., William H. Flanigan, and Nancy H. Zingale. Partisan Realignment: Voters, Parties, and Government in American History. Beverly Hills: Sage, 1980.
  • Dahl, Robert A. “Myth of the Presidential Mandate.” Political Science Quarterly 105.3 (Fall 1990): 355-372. Dionne, E.J. Why Americans Hate Politics. New York, Simon and Schuster, 1991.
  • Doppelt, Jack C. and Ellen Shearer. Nonvoters: America’s No-Shows. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage, 1999.
  • “Electorate Swings to the Right.” USA Today (9 November 1994): 9A. Erickson, Robert S. “Economic Conditions and the Presidential Vote.” American Political Science Review 83.2 (June 1989): 567-573.
  • Fiorina, Morris P. Retrospective Voting in American National Elections. New Haven, CT: Yale UP, 1981.
  • Flanigan, William H. and Nancy H. Zingale. Political Behavior of the American Electorate. 8th ed. Washington, DC: CQ Press, 1994.
  • Frankovic, Kathleen A. “Why the Gender Gap Became News in 1996.” PS 32.1 (March 1999): 20-22.
  • Ginsberg, Benjamin and Martin Shefter. “A Critical Realignment? The New Politics, the Reconstituted Right, and the Election of 1984.” The Election of 1984. Ed. Michael Nelson. Washington, DC: CQ Press, 1985. 1-25.
  • Goren, Paul. “Gut-Level Emotions and the Presidential Vote.” American Politics Quarterly 25.1 (April 1997): 203-229.
  • Green, John C. and Daniel M. Shea, eds. The State of the Parties: The Changing Role of Contemporary American Parties. 3rd ed. Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield, 1999.
  • Hurley, Patricia A. “Partisan Representation and the Failure of Realignment in the 1980s.” American Journal of Political Science33.1 (February 1989): 240-261.
  • Kefee, William J. Parties, Politics, and Public Policy in America. 8th ed. Washington, DC: CQ Press, 1998.
  • Key, V.O., Jr. Politics, Parties, and Pressure Groups. New York: Thomas Y. Crowell, 1942.
  • -----. “A Theory of Critical Elections.” Journal of Politics 17.1 (February 1955): 3- 18.
  • ----- and Milton C. Cummings, Jr. The Responsible Electorate: Rationality in Presidential Voting, 1936-1960. Cambridge, MA: Harvard UP, 1966.
  • Lacy, Dean and J. Tobin Grant. “The Impact of the Economy on the 1996 Election: The Invisible Foot.” In Weisberg and Box-Steffensmeier. 99-110.
  • Ladd, Carll Everett. “The 1994 Congressional Elections: The Postindustrial Realignment Continues.” Political Science Quarterly110.1 (Spring 1995): 1-23.
  • -----. “The Brittle Mandate: Electoral Dealignment and the 1980 Presidential Election.” Political Science Quarterly 96.1 (Spring 1981): 1-25.
  • -----. “Like Waiting for Godot: The Uselessness of Realignment for Understanding Change in Contemporary American Politics.”Polity 22.3 (Spring 1990): 511-525.
  • -----. “On Mandates, Realignments, and the 1984 Presidential Election.” Political Science Quarterly 100.1 (Spring 1985): 1-25.
  • Lawrence, David G. The Collapse of the Democratic Presidential Majority: Realignment, Dealignment, and Electoral Change from Franklin Roosevelt to Bill Clinton, Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1996.
  • Little, Thomas H. “An Experiment in Responsible Party Government: National Agenda Setting and State Replicas of the Contract with America.” American Review of Politics 18.1 (Fall-Winter 1997): 1-24.
  • Miller, Warren E. “The Election of 1984 and the Future of American Politics.” Elections in America. Ed. Kay Lehman Schlozman. Boston: Allen and Unwin, 1987. 293-320.
  • -----. “Party Identification, Realignment, and Party Voting: Back to the Basics.” American Political Science Review 85.2 (June 1991): 557-568.
  • Mink, Gwendolyn. Welfare’s End. Ithaca: Cornell UP, 1998.
  • Monardi, Fred M. “Primary Voters as Retrospective Voters.” American Politics Quarterly, 22.1 (January 1994): 88-103.
  • Moon, David. “What You Use Still Depends on What You Have: Information Effects in Presidential Elections, 1972-1988.” American Politics Quarterly 20.4 (October 1992): 427-441.
  • Nardulli, Peter F. “The Concept of a Critical Realignment, Electoral Behavior, and Political Change.” American Political Science Review 89.1 (March 1995): 10-22.
  • -----. “A Normal Vote Approach to Electoral Change: Presidential Elections, 1828- 1984.” Political Behavior 16.4 (December 1994): 467-503.
  • Nelson, Michael. “Conclusion: Some Things Old, Some Things New.” The Elections of 1992. Ed. Michael Nelson. Washington, DC: CQ Press, 1993. 183-192.
  • Norquist, Grover. Rock the House. Fort Lauderdale, FL: Vytis Press, 1995.
  • Phillips, Kevin. The Emerging Republican Majority. New Rochelle: Arlington House, 1969.
  • Pomper, Gerald. “The Presidential Election.” The Election of 1992: Reports and Interpretations. Ed. Gerald Pomper. Chatham, NJ: Chatham House, 1993. 132-156.
  • -----. “The Presidential Election.” The Election of 1996: Reports and Interpretations. Ed. Gerald Pomper. Chatham, NJ: Chatham House, 1997. 173-204.
  • Reichley, James A. “The Future of the American Two-Party System after 1996.” In Green and Shea. 10-27.
  • Rice, Tom W. and Tracey A. Hilton. “Partisanship over Time: A Comparison of United States Panel Data.” Political Research Quarterly 49.1 (March 1996): 191- 201.
  • Shafer, Byron E. “The Partisan Legacy: Are There Any New Democrats? And by the Way, Was There a Republican Revolution?” The Clinton Legacy. Ed. Colin Campbell and Bert A. Rockman. Chatham, NJ: Chatham House, 2000. 1-32.
  • Sinclair, Barbara D. “Party Realignment and the Transformation of the National Agenda: The House of Representatives, 1925-1938.” American Political Science Review 71.3 (September 1977): 940-953.
  • Speel, Robert W. Changing Patterns of Voting in the Northern United States: Electoral Realignment, 1952-1996. University Park, PA: Pennsylvania State UP, 1998.
  • Stanley, Harold W. and Richard G. Niemi, “Party Coalitions in Transition: Partisanship and Group Support, 1952-1996.” In Weisberg and Box-Steffensmeier. 162-180.
  • Sundquist, James L. Dynamics of the Party System: Alignment and Realignment of Political Parties in the United States. 2nd ed. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1983.
  • -----. “Needed: A Political Theory for the New Era of Coalition Government in the United States.” Political Science Quarterly 103.4 (Winter 1988): 613-635.
  • Svoboda, Craig J. “Retrospective Voting in Gubernatorial Elections: 1982 and 1986.” Political Research Quarterly 48.1 (March 1995): 135-150.
  • Tarrance, Lance, Jr. and Walter De Vires, Checked and Balanced: How TicketSplitters Are Shaping the New Balance of Power in American Politics. Grand Rapids, MI: Eerdemans, 1998.
  • Tuchfarber, Alfred J. et al. “Realignment from the 1996 Election and a Look Ahead to 1998.” Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington, DC, 28-31 August 1997.
  • -----. “The Republican Tidal Wave of 1994: Testing Hypothesis About Realignment, Restructuring, and Rebellion.” PS 28.4 (December 1995): 689-696.
  • Wattenberg, Martin P. The Rise of Candidate-Centered Politics: Presidential Elections of the 1980s. Cambridge, MA: Harvard UP, 1991.
  • Weisberg, Herbert F. and Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier, eds. Reelection 1996: How America Voted. New York: Seven Bridges Press, 1999.
  • Weisberg, Herbert F. and Stephen T. Mockabee. “Attitudinal Correlates of the 1996
  • Presidential Vote: The People Reelect a President.” In Weisberg and BoxSteffensmeier. 45-69.
  • Wilcox, Clyde. The Latest American Revolution: The 1994 Elections and Their Implications for Governance. New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1995.
Year 1999, Issue: 9, 3 - 16, 01.04.1999

Abstract

References

  • Abramowitz, Alan I. “Explaining Success and Failure in the 1998 Midterm Elections: Comparing the Influence of Swing Voters and Core Party Supporters.” PS 32.1 (March 1999): 60-61.
  • Abramson, Paul R., John H. Aldrich, and David W. Rohde. Change and Continuity in the 1980 Elections. Washington, DC: CQ Press, 1982.
  • -----. Change and Continuity in the 1984 Elections. Washington, DC: CQ Press, 1987.
  • -----. Change and Continuity in the 1996 and 1998 Elections. Washington, DC: CQ Press, 1999.
  • Bartels, Larry M. “Partisanship and Voting Behavior, 1952-1996.” American Journal of Political Science 44.1 (January 2000): 35-50.
  • Beck, Paul Allen. “The Changing American Party Coalitions.” In Green and Shea. 28-49.
  • -----. “Party Realignment in America: The View from the States.” Party Realignment and State Politics. Ed. Maureen Moakley. Columbus: Ohio UP, 1992. 259-278.
  • -----. “A Socialization Theory of Partisan Realignment.” Richard D. Niemi et al., The Politics of Future Citizens. San Francisco: Josey-Bass, 1974. 199-219.
  • Berg, John C. “Beyond a Third Party: The Other Minor Parties in the 1996 Elections.” In Green and Shea. 212-228.
  • Brady, David W. Critical Elections and Congressional Policy Making. Stanford, CA: Stanford UP, 1988.
  • Burnham, Walter Dean. “The Changing Shape of the American Political Universe.” American Political Science Review 59.1 (March 1965): 7-28.
  • -----. Critical Elections and the Mainsprings of American Politics. New York: Norton, 1970.
  • -----. “Critical Realignment: Dead or Alive?” The End of Realignment? Interpreting American Electoral Eras. Ed. Byron E. Shafer. Madison: U of Wisconsin P, 1991. 101-139.
  • -----. “Realignment Lives: The 1994 Earthquake and Its Implications.” The Clinton Presidency: First Appraisals. Ed. Colin Campbell and Bert A. Rockman. Chatham, NJ: Chatham House, 1996. 363-395.
  • Busch, Andrew E. Horses in Midstream: US Midterm Elections and Their Consequences, 1894-1998. Pittsburgh: U of Pittsburgh P, 1999.
  • Campbell, Angus et al., The American Voter. New York: Wiley, 1960.
  • Carmines, Edward G., John P. McIver, and James A. Stimson. “Unrealized Partnership: A Theory of Dealignment.” Journal of Politics 49.2 (May 1987): 376- 400.
  • Ceaser, James and Andrew Busch. Losing to Win: The 1996 Elections and American Politics. Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield, 1997.
  • -----. Upside Down and Inside Out: The 1992 Elections and American Politics. Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield, 1993.
  • Chubb, John E. and Paul E. Peterson. “Realignment and Institutionalization.” The New Directions in American Politics. Ed. John E. Chubb and Paul E. Peterson. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1985. 1-30.
  • Claggett, William, William Flanigan, and Nancy Zingale. “Nationalization of the American Electorate.” American Political Science Review 78.1 (March 1984): 77- 91.
  • Clymer, Adam and Janet Elder. “Poll Finds Greater Confidence in Democrats.” New York Times (10 November 1999): A1, A19.
  • Clubb, Jerome M., William H. Flanigan, and Nancy H. Zingale. Partisan Realignment: Voters, Parties, and Government in American History. Beverly Hills: Sage, 1980.
  • Dahl, Robert A. “Myth of the Presidential Mandate.” Political Science Quarterly 105.3 (Fall 1990): 355-372. Dionne, E.J. Why Americans Hate Politics. New York, Simon and Schuster, 1991.
  • Doppelt, Jack C. and Ellen Shearer. Nonvoters: America’s No-Shows. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage, 1999.
  • “Electorate Swings to the Right.” USA Today (9 November 1994): 9A. Erickson, Robert S. “Economic Conditions and the Presidential Vote.” American Political Science Review 83.2 (June 1989): 567-573.
  • Fiorina, Morris P. Retrospective Voting in American National Elections. New Haven, CT: Yale UP, 1981.
  • Flanigan, William H. and Nancy H. Zingale. Political Behavior of the American Electorate. 8th ed. Washington, DC: CQ Press, 1994.
  • Frankovic, Kathleen A. “Why the Gender Gap Became News in 1996.” PS 32.1 (March 1999): 20-22.
  • Ginsberg, Benjamin and Martin Shefter. “A Critical Realignment? The New Politics, the Reconstituted Right, and the Election of 1984.” The Election of 1984. Ed. Michael Nelson. Washington, DC: CQ Press, 1985. 1-25.
  • Goren, Paul. “Gut-Level Emotions and the Presidential Vote.” American Politics Quarterly 25.1 (April 1997): 203-229.
  • Green, John C. and Daniel M. Shea, eds. The State of the Parties: The Changing Role of Contemporary American Parties. 3rd ed. Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield, 1999.
  • Hurley, Patricia A. “Partisan Representation and the Failure of Realignment in the 1980s.” American Journal of Political Science33.1 (February 1989): 240-261.
  • Kefee, William J. Parties, Politics, and Public Policy in America. 8th ed. Washington, DC: CQ Press, 1998.
  • Key, V.O., Jr. Politics, Parties, and Pressure Groups. New York: Thomas Y. Crowell, 1942.
  • -----. “A Theory of Critical Elections.” Journal of Politics 17.1 (February 1955): 3- 18.
  • ----- and Milton C. Cummings, Jr. The Responsible Electorate: Rationality in Presidential Voting, 1936-1960. Cambridge, MA: Harvard UP, 1966.
  • Lacy, Dean and J. Tobin Grant. “The Impact of the Economy on the 1996 Election: The Invisible Foot.” In Weisberg and Box-Steffensmeier. 99-110.
  • Ladd, Carll Everett. “The 1994 Congressional Elections: The Postindustrial Realignment Continues.” Political Science Quarterly110.1 (Spring 1995): 1-23.
  • -----. “The Brittle Mandate: Electoral Dealignment and the 1980 Presidential Election.” Political Science Quarterly 96.1 (Spring 1981): 1-25.
  • -----. “Like Waiting for Godot: The Uselessness of Realignment for Understanding Change in Contemporary American Politics.”Polity 22.3 (Spring 1990): 511-525.
  • -----. “On Mandates, Realignments, and the 1984 Presidential Election.” Political Science Quarterly 100.1 (Spring 1985): 1-25.
  • Lawrence, David G. The Collapse of the Democratic Presidential Majority: Realignment, Dealignment, and Electoral Change from Franklin Roosevelt to Bill Clinton, Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1996.
  • Little, Thomas H. “An Experiment in Responsible Party Government: National Agenda Setting and State Replicas of the Contract with America.” American Review of Politics 18.1 (Fall-Winter 1997): 1-24.
  • Miller, Warren E. “The Election of 1984 and the Future of American Politics.” Elections in America. Ed. Kay Lehman Schlozman. Boston: Allen and Unwin, 1987. 293-320.
  • -----. “Party Identification, Realignment, and Party Voting: Back to the Basics.” American Political Science Review 85.2 (June 1991): 557-568.
  • Mink, Gwendolyn. Welfare’s End. Ithaca: Cornell UP, 1998.
  • Monardi, Fred M. “Primary Voters as Retrospective Voters.” American Politics Quarterly, 22.1 (January 1994): 88-103.
  • Moon, David. “What You Use Still Depends on What You Have: Information Effects in Presidential Elections, 1972-1988.” American Politics Quarterly 20.4 (October 1992): 427-441.
  • Nardulli, Peter F. “The Concept of a Critical Realignment, Electoral Behavior, and Political Change.” American Political Science Review 89.1 (March 1995): 10-22.
  • -----. “A Normal Vote Approach to Electoral Change: Presidential Elections, 1828- 1984.” Political Behavior 16.4 (December 1994): 467-503.
  • Nelson, Michael. “Conclusion: Some Things Old, Some Things New.” The Elections of 1992. Ed. Michael Nelson. Washington, DC: CQ Press, 1993. 183-192.
  • Norquist, Grover. Rock the House. Fort Lauderdale, FL: Vytis Press, 1995.
  • Phillips, Kevin. The Emerging Republican Majority. New Rochelle: Arlington House, 1969.
  • Pomper, Gerald. “The Presidential Election.” The Election of 1992: Reports and Interpretations. Ed. Gerald Pomper. Chatham, NJ: Chatham House, 1993. 132-156.
  • -----. “The Presidential Election.” The Election of 1996: Reports and Interpretations. Ed. Gerald Pomper. Chatham, NJ: Chatham House, 1997. 173-204.
  • Reichley, James A. “The Future of the American Two-Party System after 1996.” In Green and Shea. 10-27.
  • Rice, Tom W. and Tracey A. Hilton. “Partisanship over Time: A Comparison of United States Panel Data.” Political Research Quarterly 49.1 (March 1996): 191- 201.
  • Shafer, Byron E. “The Partisan Legacy: Are There Any New Democrats? And by the Way, Was There a Republican Revolution?” The Clinton Legacy. Ed. Colin Campbell and Bert A. Rockman. Chatham, NJ: Chatham House, 2000. 1-32.
  • Sinclair, Barbara D. “Party Realignment and the Transformation of the National Agenda: The House of Representatives, 1925-1938.” American Political Science Review 71.3 (September 1977): 940-953.
  • Speel, Robert W. Changing Patterns of Voting in the Northern United States: Electoral Realignment, 1952-1996. University Park, PA: Pennsylvania State UP, 1998.
  • Stanley, Harold W. and Richard G. Niemi, “Party Coalitions in Transition: Partisanship and Group Support, 1952-1996.” In Weisberg and Box-Steffensmeier. 162-180.
  • Sundquist, James L. Dynamics of the Party System: Alignment and Realignment of Political Parties in the United States. 2nd ed. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1983.
  • -----. “Needed: A Political Theory for the New Era of Coalition Government in the United States.” Political Science Quarterly 103.4 (Winter 1988): 613-635.
  • Svoboda, Craig J. “Retrospective Voting in Gubernatorial Elections: 1982 and 1986.” Political Research Quarterly 48.1 (March 1995): 135-150.
  • Tarrance, Lance, Jr. and Walter De Vires, Checked and Balanced: How TicketSplitters Are Shaping the New Balance of Power in American Politics. Grand Rapids, MI: Eerdemans, 1998.
  • Tuchfarber, Alfred J. et al. “Realignment from the 1996 Election and a Look Ahead to 1998.” Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington, DC, 28-31 August 1997.
  • -----. “The Republican Tidal Wave of 1994: Testing Hypothesis About Realignment, Restructuring, and Rebellion.” PS 28.4 (December 1995): 689-696.
  • Wattenberg, Martin P. The Rise of Candidate-Centered Politics: Presidential Elections of the 1980s. Cambridge, MA: Harvard UP, 1991.
  • Weisberg, Herbert F. and Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier, eds. Reelection 1996: How America Voted. New York: Seven Bridges Press, 1999.
  • Weisberg, Herbert F. and Stephen T. Mockabee. “Attitudinal Correlates of the 1996
  • Presidential Vote: The People Reelect a President.” In Weisberg and BoxSteffensmeier. 45-69.
  • Wilcox, Clyde. The Latest American Revolution: The 1994 Elections and Their Implications for Governance. New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1995.
There are 73 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Stefano Luconi This is me

Publication Date April 1, 1999
Published in Issue Year 1999 Issue: 9

Cite

MLA Luconi, Stefano. “From Realignment to Dealignment : The Changing Electoral Behavior in the United States”. Journal of American Studies of Turkey, no. 9, 1999, pp. 3-16.

JAST - Journal of American Studies of Turkey