FORECASTING & IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON AIRLINE SECTOR: A CASE STUDY OF TURKEY

Abstract

Purpose- An infectious virus called COVID-19 originated in China spread over the globe in a short time and became a pandemic. The aim of this study is to determine the relationship between the COVID-19 and the airline companies in Turkey. Thus, we went over daily stock prices of the companies as well as daily COVID-19 cases reported across the nation. As a result, two companies were chosen among all of them. From 11 March 2020 to 30 May 2022, we retrieved data of daily stock prices, COVID-19 cases and COVID-19 deaths recorded. Methodology- Regression analysis was used to determine the association between COVID-19 and prices. The results were as expected; both companies demonstrated significance, and we concluded that they responded to the COVID-19. The second aim of the study is to utilize regression analysis to predict, between June 2022 and June 2023, both the number of verified COVID-19 cases and the prices of Airline companies. Findings- The results were as expected; both companies were found significant, and we concluded that they responded to the COVID-19. By June 30, 2023, it is likely to see more verified cases if the corona virus spread rate in Turkey does not change. Data for COVID-19 instances will differ depending on the transmission rate. Briefly stated, COVID-19 cases and BIST 100 Travel Sector cases have a direct relationship. Because of a rise in COVID-19 vaccinations, both businesses exhibit an increasing tendency. Conclusion- The Travel Sector in BIST 100 also exhibits a favorable correlation with COVID-19 cases. But both businesses exhibit a bullish or rising tendency as a result of vaccination which started in 2021. To stop the corona virus from spreading, precautions should be taken, such as keeping a safe social distance, washing hands regularly, and avoiding unwanted facial contact.

Keywords

• COVID-19
• BIST-100 Index
• travel & leisure sector
• forecasting
• relationship between price and COVID
• regression analysis

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