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Year 2020, , 292 - 303, 31.12.2020

Mohammad Moradi Nilgun Caglarirmak Uslu

https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2020.1311

Abstract

References

  • Barro, R. J. (2008). Inequality and Growth Revisited. ADB Working Paper Series on Regional Economic Integration, Asian Development Bank (ADB), Manial. 11.
  • Basakha, M., Yavari, K., Sadeghi, H., & Naseri, A. (2015). Population Aging and Iran’s Non-Oil Economic Growth. Journal of Payavard Salamat. 9(2), 131-146.
  • Bloom, D. E., Canning, D., & Fink, G. (2008). Population Aging and Economic Growth. PGDA Working Paper Series. (31).
  • Bloom, D. E., & Williamson G. J. (1998). Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia. The World Bank Economic Review. (12), 419-455.
  • Bloom, E. D., Canning, D., & Sevilla, J. (2001), “Economic Growth and the Demographic Transition”, NBER Working Paper Series, December, No. (8685), 1-87.
  • Borsch-Supan, A. (2003). Labor Market Effects of Population Aging. Fondazione Giacomo Brodolini and Blackwell Publishing Ltd. 5-44.
  • Cai, F., & Wang M. (2006). Challenge Facing China’s Economic Growth in Its Aging but not Affluent Era. China & World Economy. 14(5). 20-31
  • Cervellati, M., & Sunde, U. (2011). Life expectancy and economic growth: The role of the demographic transition. Journal of Economic Growth. 16(2): 99-133.
  • Choudhry, M. T., & Elhorst, J. P. (2010). Demographic transition and economic growth in China, India and Pakistan. Economic Systems, 34(3). 218-236.
  • DPT (2007), Türkiye’de Yaşlıların Durumu ve Yaşlanma Ulusal Eylem Planı,Soyal Sektörler ve Koordinasyon Genel Müdürlüğü, Yayın No. DPT. 2741.
  • Esen, E., & Ozata, E. (2017). The Impacts of Tourism on Economic Growth: Analyzing the Validity of the Tourism Led Growth Hypothesis for Turkey with the ARDL Model. The journal of Social Science Anadolu Universiy. 17(1), 43-58.
  • Gruescu, S. (2007). The size and the growth rate of population and economic growth. In: Population Aging and Economic Growth. Contributions to Economics. Physica-Verlag HD. 13-30
  • Ismail, W. N., Abul Rahman, W. H., & Abdul Hamid, T. T. (2015). Does Population Aging Affect Economic Growth in Malaysia? PRPSIDING PERKEM. 10, 205-210.
  • Johansen, S. (1998). Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. 12(2-3), 231-254.
  • Johansen, S. (1991). Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models. Econometrica. 59(6), 1551-1580.
  • Kelley, A. C., & Schimdt, R. M. (2005). Evolution of Recent Economic-Demographic Modeling: A Synthesis. Journal of Population Economics. 18, 275-300.
  • Krugman, P. (1994). The Myth of Asia’s Miracle. Foreign Affairs. 73(6), 62-78.
  • Lee, D. D., Mason, A., & Miller, T. (1998). Saving, Wealth, and Population. Working papers 199805, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
  • Lee, H., Huh, H., Lee, Y., & Lim, J. (2013). Effects of Population Aging on Economic Growth: A Panel Analysis. Seoul Journal of Economics, 26(4), 401-432.
  • Lee, R., & Mason, A. (2006). Back to Basics: What is the Demographic Dividend? Finance and Development, 43(3) 16-17.
  • Mason, A., & Lee, R. (2004). Reform and Support Systems for the Elderly in Developing Countries: Capturing the Second Demographic Dividend. International Seminar on the Demographic Window and Healthy Aging: Socioeconomic Challenges and Opportunities, China Centre for Economic Research, Peking University, Beijing.
  • Mason, A., & Lee, R. (2006). Reform and Support Systems for the Elderly in Developing Countries: Capturing the Second Demographic Dividend. Genus. 62(2), 11-35.
  • Minh, N. T. (2009). Dynamic Demographic and Economic Growth in Vietnam. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy. 14(4). 389-398.
  • OECD. (1998a). Work Force Aging: consequences and Policy Responses. Working Paper AWP 4.1. Paris: OECD.
  • Skirbekk, A. (2003). Age and Individual Productivity: A literature Survey. MPIDR Working Paper WP 2003-028, Max Plank Institute for Demographic Research.
  • Solow, R.M. (1956). A Contribution to The Theory of Economic Growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70. 65-94.
  • Swan, T.W. (1956). Economic Growth and Capital Accumulation. Economic Record. 32. 334-361.
  • TÜİK, (2012a), Türkiye’nin Demografik Yapısı ve Geleceği, 2010-2050, News Bulletin.
  • TÜİK, (2012b), “İstatistiklerle Yaşlılar”, Turkey Statistics Institute.
  • Wei, Z., & Hao, R. (2010). Demographic Structure and Economic Growth: Evidence from China. Journal of Comparative Economics. 38(4). 472-491.
  • Zhang, J., & Zhang, J. (2005). The Effects of Life Expectancy on Fertility, Saving, Schooling and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics. 107(1), 45-66

THE IMPACT OF POPULATION AGING ON TURKEY’S ECONOMIC GROWTH: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS WITH ARDL MODEL

Year 2020, , 292 - 303, 31.12.2020

Mohammad Moradi Nilgun Caglarirmak Uslu

https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2020.1311

Abstract

Purpose - Labor and labor productivity concepts, which have an important role in growth dynamics, have found a serious research area especially in developing countries due to the population aging. Many researchers have focused on the effect of population aging on economic growth of some developed countries like China, Japan, Malaysia and those countries where the old people share are growing fast or have a large share in total population. This condition, which causes the emphasis on production factors, labor migration and factor productivity concepts, is the main motivation of this study.
Methodology - In order to find the relationship between population aging and economic growth in Turkey, an ARDL model has been used for 1970-2018-time period. This time period was selected due to availability of data for selected variables. The long run and short run models are estimates by Eviews 10 software.
Findings- The results illustrate that the population aging negatively affect Turkey’s economy in either short-run or long-run. Based on this model’s results, Turkey’s economy is negatively influenced by population aging 0.029 percent in long-run and 0.084 percent in short-run periods which the coefficients are significant at 0.5 and 0.1 levels respectively.
Conclusion- The rates of fertility and death both have been decreasing while the rate of life expectancy has been increasing gradually during last three decades in Turkey showing a negative effect from population aging on economic growth of Turkey. These signs are associate with this study’s result.

Keywords

Population aging population growth economic growth ARDL model Turkey

References

  • Barro, R. J. (2008). Inequality and Growth Revisited. ADB Working Paper Series on Regional Economic Integration, Asian Development Bank (ADB), Manial. 11.
  • Basakha, M., Yavari, K., Sadeghi, H., & Naseri, A. (2015). Population Aging and Iran’s Non-Oil Economic Growth. Journal of Payavard Salamat. 9(2), 131-146.
  • Bloom, D. E., Canning, D., & Fink, G. (2008). Population Aging and Economic Growth. PGDA Working Paper Series. (31).
  • Bloom, D. E., & Williamson G. J. (1998). Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia. The World Bank Economic Review. (12), 419-455.
  • Bloom, E. D., Canning, D., & Sevilla, J. (2001), “Economic Growth and the Demographic Transition”, NBER Working Paper Series, December, No. (8685), 1-87.
  • Borsch-Supan, A. (2003). Labor Market Effects of Population Aging. Fondazione Giacomo Brodolini and Blackwell Publishing Ltd. 5-44.
  • Cai, F., & Wang M. (2006). Challenge Facing China’s Economic Growth in Its Aging but not Affluent Era. China & World Economy. 14(5). 20-31
  • Cervellati, M., & Sunde, U. (2011). Life expectancy and economic growth: The role of the demographic transition. Journal of Economic Growth. 16(2): 99-133.
  • Choudhry, M. T., & Elhorst, J. P. (2010). Demographic transition and economic growth in China, India and Pakistan. Economic Systems, 34(3). 218-236.
  • DPT (2007), Türkiye’de Yaşlıların Durumu ve Yaşlanma Ulusal Eylem Planı,Soyal Sektörler ve Koordinasyon Genel Müdürlüğü, Yayın No. DPT. 2741.
  • Esen, E., & Ozata, E. (2017). The Impacts of Tourism on Economic Growth: Analyzing the Validity of the Tourism Led Growth Hypothesis for Turkey with the ARDL Model. The journal of Social Science Anadolu Universiy. 17(1), 43-58.
  • Gruescu, S. (2007). The size and the growth rate of population and economic growth. In: Population Aging and Economic Growth. Contributions to Economics. Physica-Verlag HD. 13-30
  • Ismail, W. N., Abul Rahman, W. H., & Abdul Hamid, T. T. (2015). Does Population Aging Affect Economic Growth in Malaysia? PRPSIDING PERKEM. 10, 205-210.
  • Johansen, S. (1998). Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. 12(2-3), 231-254.
  • Johansen, S. (1991). Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models. Econometrica. 59(6), 1551-1580.
  • Kelley, A. C., & Schimdt, R. M. (2005). Evolution of Recent Economic-Demographic Modeling: A Synthesis. Journal of Population Economics. 18, 275-300.
  • Krugman, P. (1994). The Myth of Asia’s Miracle. Foreign Affairs. 73(6), 62-78.
  • Lee, D. D., Mason, A., & Miller, T. (1998). Saving, Wealth, and Population. Working papers 199805, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
  • Lee, H., Huh, H., Lee, Y., & Lim, J. (2013). Effects of Population Aging on Economic Growth: A Panel Analysis. Seoul Journal of Economics, 26(4), 401-432.
  • Lee, R., & Mason, A. (2006). Back to Basics: What is the Demographic Dividend? Finance and Development, 43(3) 16-17.
  • Mason, A., & Lee, R. (2004). Reform and Support Systems for the Elderly in Developing Countries: Capturing the Second Demographic Dividend. International Seminar on the Demographic Window and Healthy Aging: Socioeconomic Challenges and Opportunities, China Centre for Economic Research, Peking University, Beijing.
  • Mason, A., & Lee, R. (2006). Reform and Support Systems for the Elderly in Developing Countries: Capturing the Second Demographic Dividend. Genus. 62(2), 11-35.
  • Minh, N. T. (2009). Dynamic Demographic and Economic Growth in Vietnam. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy. 14(4). 389-398.
  • OECD. (1998a). Work Force Aging: consequences and Policy Responses. Working Paper AWP 4.1. Paris: OECD.
  • Skirbekk, A. (2003). Age and Individual Productivity: A literature Survey. MPIDR Working Paper WP 2003-028, Max Plank Institute for Demographic Research.
  • Solow, R.M. (1956). A Contribution to The Theory of Economic Growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70. 65-94.
  • Swan, T.W. (1956). Economic Growth and Capital Accumulation. Economic Record. 32. 334-361.
  • TÜİK, (2012a), Türkiye’nin Demografik Yapısı ve Geleceği, 2010-2050, News Bulletin.
  • TÜİK, (2012b), “İstatistiklerle Yaşlılar”, Turkey Statistics Institute.
  • Wei, Z., & Hao, R. (2010). Demographic Structure and Economic Growth: Evidence from China. Journal of Comparative Economics. 38(4). 472-491.
  • Zhang, J., & Zhang, J. (2005). The Effects of Life Expectancy on Fertility, Saving, Schooling and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics. 107(1), 45-66
There are 31 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Economics, Finance, Business Administration
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Mohammad Moradi This is me 0000-0001-5162-9616

Nilgun Caglarirmak Uslu This is me 0000-0001-6254-5784

Publication Date December 31, 2020
Published in Issue Year 2020

Cite

APA Moradi, M., & Uslu, N. C. (2020). THE IMPACT OF POPULATION AGING ON TURKEY’S ECONOMIC GROWTH: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS WITH ARDL MODEL. Journal of Business Economics and Finance, 9(4), 292-303. https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2020.1311

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