Research Article
BibTex RIS Cite

Year 2021, , 58 - 71, 30.06.2021

Zeynep Colak

https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2021.1405

Abstract

References

  • Adams, Z.ü & Füss, R. (2010). Macroeconomic determinants of international housing markets. Journal of Housing Economics, 19 (1), 38-50.
  • Akkaş, M. E., & Sayılgan, G. (2015). Konut fiyatları ve konut kredisi faizi: Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi. Journal of Economics, Finance & Accounting, 2 (4), 572-583.
  • Anari, A., & Kolari, J. (2002). House prices and inflation. Real Estate Economics, 30 (1), 67-84.
  • Andrews, D. (2010). Real house prices in oecd countries: the role of demand shocks and structural and policy factors. OECD Economics Department Working Paper, No: 831.
  • Apergis, N., & Rezitis A. (2003), “Housing prices and macroeconomic factors in Greece: prospects within the EMU. Applied Economics Letters, 10, 799-804.
  • Arestis, P., & Gonzalez, A.R. (2014). Bank credit and the housing market in OECD countries. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 36 (3), 467-490.
  • Assenmacher-Wesche, & K. Gerlach, S. (2008). Monetary policy, asset prices and macroeconomic conditions: a panel-var study. National Bank of Belgium Working Paper Research, 149, 1-37.
  • Ayhan, F. (2018). İnşaat sektörünün Türkiye ekonomisine etkilerine ilişkin bir analiz. (Ed. Ayhan O., M.R. İnce, S. Demir), Dünden Bugüne Ekonomi Yazıları İçinde (318-345), Umuttepe Yayınları, Kocaeli.
  • Badurlar, İ. Ö. (2008). Türkiye’de konut fiyatları ile makro ekonomik değişkenler arasındaki ilişkinin araştırılması. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 8 (1), 223-238.
  • Büyüköztürk, Ş., Çakmak, E. K., Akgün, O. E., Karadeniz, S., & Demirel, F. (2018). Bilimsel Araştırma Yöntemleri. Pegem Akademi Yayınları, Eskişehir.
  • Canbay, Ş., & Mercan, D. (2020). Türkiye’de konut fiyatları, büyüme ve makroekonomik değişkenler arasındaki ilişkinin ekonometrik analizi. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 18 (1), 176-200.
  • Carstensen, K., Hülsewig, O., & Wollmershäuser, T. (2009). Monetary policy transmission and house prices: European cross-country evidence. Cesifo Working Paper, No. 2750, Center for Economic Studies and IFO Institute, Munich.
  • Christou, C., Gupta, R., Nyakabawo, W., & Wohar, M.E. (2018). Do house prices hedge inflation in the US? A quantile cointegration approach. International Review of Economics and Finance, 54, 152-156.
  • Coşkun, Y. (2016). Konut fiyatları ve yatırımı: Türkiye için bir analiz. Niğde Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 9 (2), 201-217.
  • Coşkun, Y., & Ertuğrul, M. (2016). House price return volatility trends in Turkey and Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir. Journal of European Real Estate Research, 9 (1).
  • Çetin, G., & Doğaner, A. (2017). İnşaat sektörü güven endeksi ve konut fiyat endeksi arasındaki ilişki: Türkiye için ampirik analiz. İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi, 4 (2), 155-165.
  • Demary, M. (2009). The link between output, inflation, monetary policy and housing price dynamics. Munich Personal Repec Archive Mpra Paper No: 15978, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Dilber, İ., & Sertkaya, Y. (2016). 2008 Finansal krizi sonrası Türkiye’de konut fiyatlarının belirleyicilerine yönelik analiz. Muş Alparslan Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 4 (1), 11- 30.
  • Engin, C., & Göllüce, E. (2016). 2008 Küresel finans krizi ve Türkiye üzerine yansımaları. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 6, 27- 40.
  • Erol, I., & Tirtiroglu, D. (2008). The inflation-hedging properties of Turkish REITS. Applied Economics, 40 (20), 2671-2696.
  • Eryüzlü, H., & Ekici, S. (2020). Konut fiyat endeksi ve reel döviz kuru ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği. İktisadi İdari ve Siyasal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 5 (12), 97-105.
  • Goetzmann, W. N., & Volaitis, E. (2006). Simulating real estate in the investment portfolio: model uncertainity and inflation hedging. Yale International Centre for Finance Working Paper, No:06-04, 1-39.
  • Goodhart, C., & Hofmann, B. (2008). House prices, money, credit, and the macroeconomy. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 24 (1), 180-205.
  • Güriş, S., Akay, E.Ç., & Güriş, B. (2017). Eviews ile Temel Ekonometri. Der Yayınları, İstanbul.
  • Halıcıoğlu, F. (2007). The demand for new housing in Turkey: an application of ARDL model. Global Business and Economics Review, 9 (1), 62-74.
  • Hofmann, B., & Peersman, G. (2017). Monetary policy transmission and tradeoffs in the United States: Old and new. BIS Working Papers No: 649, 1-27.
  • Hossain, B., & Latif, E. (2009). Determinants of housing price volatility in Canada: a dynamic analysis. Applied Economics, 41 (27), 3521-3331.
  • Iacoviello, M. (2005). House prices, borrowing constraints, and monetary policy in the business cycle. American Economic Review, 95 (3), 739-764.
  • Ibrahim, I., Sundarasen, S.D., & Shayuti, A.F. (2009). Property investment and inflation hedging in residential property: the case of district of Gombak, Selangor d.e. the Iup. Journal of Applied Finance, 15 (2), 38-45.
  • İslamoğlu, B.and Nazlıoğlu, & Ş. (2019). Enflasyon ve konut fiyatları: İstanbul, Ankara ve İzmir için panel veri analizi. Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, 7 (1), 93-99.
  • Jarocinski, M., & Smets, F. (2008). House prices and the stance of monetary policy. ECB Working Paper, 891.
  • Jorda, O., Schularick, M., & Taylor, A. M. (2015). Betting the house. Journal of International Economics, 96, 2-18.
  • Karadaş, H. A., & Salihoğlu, E. (2020). Seçili makroekonomik değişkenlerin konut fiyatlarına etkisi: Türkiye örneği. Ekonomik ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 16 (1), 63- 80.
  • Kepili, E. I. Z. & Masron, T. A. (2011). Real estate–foreign direct investment–growth in Malaysia: Re-framing eclectic paradigm. IPEDR, 7, 110-114.
  • Korkmaz, Ö. (2019). The relationship between housing prices and inflation rate in Turkey. International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 13 (3), 427-452.
  • Kuang, W., & Liu, P. (2015). Inflation and house prices: theory and evidence from 35 major cities in China. International Real Estate Review, 18 (1), 217-240.
  • Lebe, F., & Akbaş, Y. E. (2014). Türkiye'nin konut talebinin analizi: 1970-2011. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 28 (1), 57-83.
  • Lee, H. K. N. (2013). A cointegration analysis of inflation and real estate returns. Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management, 19 (3), 207-223.
  • Lotz, R. I. ve Gupta, R. (2013). The long-run relationship between house prices and ınflation in South Africa: an ARDL approach. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 17, 188-198.
  • Milcheva, S., & Sebastian, S. (2016). The housing market channel of monetary policy transmission in the Euro Area. Journal of European Real Estate Research, 9 (1), 76-97.
  • Özgen, F.B., & Güloğlu, B. (2004). Türkiye’de iç borçların iktisadi etkilerinin var tekniğiyle analizi. METU Studies in Development, 31, 93-114.
  • Poterba, J. M. (19929. Tax reform and the housing market in the late 1980s: who knew what, and when did they know it. Real Estate and Credit Crunch, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Conference Series No: 36, 230-251.
  • Szeidl, A., & Chetty, R. (2004). Consumption commitments and asset prices. Society for Economic Dynamics. No. 354.
  • Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Elektronic Data Delivery System (TCMB EVDS), Https://Evds2.Tcmb.Gov.Tr/İndex.Php?/Evds/Seriemarket/Access Date: May 12th, 2020.
  • Üçal, M. S, & Gökkent. G. (2009). Macroeconomic factors affecting real estate markets in Turkey: a VAR analysis approach. Briefing Notes İn Economics, 80, 1-10.
  • Valadez, R. M. (2010). The housing bubble and the GDP: a correlation perspective. Journal of Case Research in Business and Economics,3, 1-18.
  • Zandi, G., Mahadevan, A., Supramaniam, L., Aslam, A., & Theng, L. K. (2015). The economical factors affecting residential property price: the case of Penang island. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 7(12), 45-55.
  • Zammit, V. (2010). Asymmetries in the monetary transmission mechanism in the Euro area: the case of the housing market. Bank of Valletta Review, 42, 76-107.
  • Zhou, X., & Clements, S. (2010). The inflation hedging ability of real estate in China. Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management, 16 (3), 267-277.
  • Zhu, H. (2006). The structure of housing finance markets and house prices in Asia. BIS Quarterly Review, December, 55-69

A CAUSALITY ANALYSIS ON FACTORS AFFECTING HOUSING PRICES: CASE OF TURKEY

Year 2021, , 58 - 71, 30.06.2021

Zeynep Colak

https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2021.1405

Abstract

Purpose- Crises can manifest themselves in many areas such as in political, social and economic areas, in the ordinary course of life. Especially in the practices related to the economic field, the crisis reaches a global scale and can affect many countries. Within the scope of the limitless dimensions of globalization, problems experienced in one country affect other countries as well. The aim of this study is to show the relationships between housing prices (Housing prices in Turkey after the 2008-2009 global financial crisis was subjected) and exchange rate, consumer price index (CPI), deposit interest rate, index of industrial production, employment.
Methodology- In this study, quantitative research method is used and the study has the feature of correlational research. The VAR model was used in the study and the stability of the data was tested with ADF (Augmented Dickey Fuller) and Phillips Perron (PP) unit root tests.
Findings- In the study, the long and short term relationships between housing price and the exchange rate, consumer price index, deposit interest rate, industrial production index and employment rate after the 2008-2009 global financial crisis impact for the period of 2010 January- 2019 December were examined with Johansen Cointegration and Granger Causality analyzes. The results show that there are long term relationships among the variables and there is a one-way short term relationship from deposit interest rate, USD / TL rate, industrial production index, CPI and employment to housing price index. According to the Johansen Cointegration test result, there is a long-term relationship between variables excluding CPI.
Conclusion- As a conclusion of the analyses, it is seen that macroeconomic variables have an effect on the increase of house prices in Turkey during the financial crisis and post-financial crisis period. Changes in house price and deposit interest rates, dollar/TL exchange rate, industrial production index, CPI and employment rates play a decisive role in the decrease or increase in house prices. This will have a major impact on the increase in housing demand and, as a result, the development of the construction sector. In this study, similar results were obtained from national and international studies.

Keywords

Housing prices housing price index Granger causality analysis Johansen cointegration analysis

References

  • Adams, Z.ü & Füss, R. (2010). Macroeconomic determinants of international housing markets. Journal of Housing Economics, 19 (1), 38-50.
  • Akkaş, M. E., & Sayılgan, G. (2015). Konut fiyatları ve konut kredisi faizi: Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi. Journal of Economics, Finance & Accounting, 2 (4), 572-583.
  • Anari, A., & Kolari, J. (2002). House prices and inflation. Real Estate Economics, 30 (1), 67-84.
  • Andrews, D. (2010). Real house prices in oecd countries: the role of demand shocks and structural and policy factors. OECD Economics Department Working Paper, No: 831.
  • Apergis, N., & Rezitis A. (2003), “Housing prices and macroeconomic factors in Greece: prospects within the EMU. Applied Economics Letters, 10, 799-804.
  • Arestis, P., & Gonzalez, A.R. (2014). Bank credit and the housing market in OECD countries. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 36 (3), 467-490.
  • Assenmacher-Wesche, & K. Gerlach, S. (2008). Monetary policy, asset prices and macroeconomic conditions: a panel-var study. National Bank of Belgium Working Paper Research, 149, 1-37.
  • Ayhan, F. (2018). İnşaat sektörünün Türkiye ekonomisine etkilerine ilişkin bir analiz. (Ed. Ayhan O., M.R. İnce, S. Demir), Dünden Bugüne Ekonomi Yazıları İçinde (318-345), Umuttepe Yayınları, Kocaeli.
  • Badurlar, İ. Ö. (2008). Türkiye’de konut fiyatları ile makro ekonomik değişkenler arasındaki ilişkinin araştırılması. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 8 (1), 223-238.
  • Büyüköztürk, Ş., Çakmak, E. K., Akgün, O. E., Karadeniz, S., & Demirel, F. (2018). Bilimsel Araştırma Yöntemleri. Pegem Akademi Yayınları, Eskişehir.
  • Canbay, Ş., & Mercan, D. (2020). Türkiye’de konut fiyatları, büyüme ve makroekonomik değişkenler arasındaki ilişkinin ekonometrik analizi. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 18 (1), 176-200.
  • Carstensen, K., Hülsewig, O., & Wollmershäuser, T. (2009). Monetary policy transmission and house prices: European cross-country evidence. Cesifo Working Paper, No. 2750, Center for Economic Studies and IFO Institute, Munich.
  • Christou, C., Gupta, R., Nyakabawo, W., & Wohar, M.E. (2018). Do house prices hedge inflation in the US? A quantile cointegration approach. International Review of Economics and Finance, 54, 152-156.
  • Coşkun, Y. (2016). Konut fiyatları ve yatırımı: Türkiye için bir analiz. Niğde Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 9 (2), 201-217.
  • Coşkun, Y., & Ertuğrul, M. (2016). House price return volatility trends in Turkey and Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir. Journal of European Real Estate Research, 9 (1).
  • Çetin, G., & Doğaner, A. (2017). İnşaat sektörü güven endeksi ve konut fiyat endeksi arasındaki ilişki: Türkiye için ampirik analiz. İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi, 4 (2), 155-165.
  • Demary, M. (2009). The link between output, inflation, monetary policy and housing price dynamics. Munich Personal Repec Archive Mpra Paper No: 15978, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Dilber, İ., & Sertkaya, Y. (2016). 2008 Finansal krizi sonrası Türkiye’de konut fiyatlarının belirleyicilerine yönelik analiz. Muş Alparslan Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 4 (1), 11- 30.
  • Engin, C., & Göllüce, E. (2016). 2008 Küresel finans krizi ve Türkiye üzerine yansımaları. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 6, 27- 40.
  • Erol, I., & Tirtiroglu, D. (2008). The inflation-hedging properties of Turkish REITS. Applied Economics, 40 (20), 2671-2696.
  • Eryüzlü, H., & Ekici, S. (2020). Konut fiyat endeksi ve reel döviz kuru ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği. İktisadi İdari ve Siyasal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 5 (12), 97-105.
  • Goetzmann, W. N., & Volaitis, E. (2006). Simulating real estate in the investment portfolio: model uncertainity and inflation hedging. Yale International Centre for Finance Working Paper, No:06-04, 1-39.
  • Goodhart, C., & Hofmann, B. (2008). House prices, money, credit, and the macroeconomy. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 24 (1), 180-205.
  • Güriş, S., Akay, E.Ç., & Güriş, B. (2017). Eviews ile Temel Ekonometri. Der Yayınları, İstanbul.
  • Halıcıoğlu, F. (2007). The demand for new housing in Turkey: an application of ARDL model. Global Business and Economics Review, 9 (1), 62-74.
  • Hofmann, B., & Peersman, G. (2017). Monetary policy transmission and tradeoffs in the United States: Old and new. BIS Working Papers No: 649, 1-27.
  • Hossain, B., & Latif, E. (2009). Determinants of housing price volatility in Canada: a dynamic analysis. Applied Economics, 41 (27), 3521-3331.
  • Iacoviello, M. (2005). House prices, borrowing constraints, and monetary policy in the business cycle. American Economic Review, 95 (3), 739-764.
  • Ibrahim, I., Sundarasen, S.D., & Shayuti, A.F. (2009). Property investment and inflation hedging in residential property: the case of district of Gombak, Selangor d.e. the Iup. Journal of Applied Finance, 15 (2), 38-45.
  • İslamoğlu, B.and Nazlıoğlu, & Ş. (2019). Enflasyon ve konut fiyatları: İstanbul, Ankara ve İzmir için panel veri analizi. Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, 7 (1), 93-99.
  • Jarocinski, M., & Smets, F. (2008). House prices and the stance of monetary policy. ECB Working Paper, 891.
  • Jorda, O., Schularick, M., & Taylor, A. M. (2015). Betting the house. Journal of International Economics, 96, 2-18.
  • Karadaş, H. A., & Salihoğlu, E. (2020). Seçili makroekonomik değişkenlerin konut fiyatlarına etkisi: Türkiye örneği. Ekonomik ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 16 (1), 63- 80.
  • Kepili, E. I. Z. & Masron, T. A. (2011). Real estate–foreign direct investment–growth in Malaysia: Re-framing eclectic paradigm. IPEDR, 7, 110-114.
  • Korkmaz, Ö. (2019). The relationship between housing prices and inflation rate in Turkey. International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 13 (3), 427-452.
  • Kuang, W., & Liu, P. (2015). Inflation and house prices: theory and evidence from 35 major cities in China. International Real Estate Review, 18 (1), 217-240.
  • Lebe, F., & Akbaş, Y. E. (2014). Türkiye'nin konut talebinin analizi: 1970-2011. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 28 (1), 57-83.
  • Lee, H. K. N. (2013). A cointegration analysis of inflation and real estate returns. Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management, 19 (3), 207-223.
  • Lotz, R. I. ve Gupta, R. (2013). The long-run relationship between house prices and ınflation in South Africa: an ARDL approach. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 17, 188-198.
  • Milcheva, S., & Sebastian, S. (2016). The housing market channel of monetary policy transmission in the Euro Area. Journal of European Real Estate Research, 9 (1), 76-97.
  • Özgen, F.B., & Güloğlu, B. (2004). Türkiye’de iç borçların iktisadi etkilerinin var tekniğiyle analizi. METU Studies in Development, 31, 93-114.
  • Poterba, J. M. (19929. Tax reform and the housing market in the late 1980s: who knew what, and when did they know it. Real Estate and Credit Crunch, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Conference Series No: 36, 230-251.
  • Szeidl, A., & Chetty, R. (2004). Consumption commitments and asset prices. Society for Economic Dynamics. No. 354.
  • Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Elektronic Data Delivery System (TCMB EVDS), Https://Evds2.Tcmb.Gov.Tr/İndex.Php?/Evds/Seriemarket/Access Date: May 12th, 2020.
  • Üçal, M. S, & Gökkent. G. (2009). Macroeconomic factors affecting real estate markets in Turkey: a VAR analysis approach. Briefing Notes İn Economics, 80, 1-10.
  • Valadez, R. M. (2010). The housing bubble and the GDP: a correlation perspective. Journal of Case Research in Business and Economics,3, 1-18.
  • Zandi, G., Mahadevan, A., Supramaniam, L., Aslam, A., & Theng, L. K. (2015). The economical factors affecting residential property price: the case of Penang island. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 7(12), 45-55.
  • Zammit, V. (2010). Asymmetries in the monetary transmission mechanism in the Euro area: the case of the housing market. Bank of Valletta Review, 42, 76-107.
  • Zhou, X., & Clements, S. (2010). The inflation hedging ability of real estate in China. Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management, 16 (3), 267-277.
  • Zhu, H. (2006). The structure of housing finance markets and house prices in Asia. BIS Quarterly Review, December, 55-69
There are 50 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Finance, Business Administration
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Zeynep Colak This is me 0000-0003-0058-6809

Publication Date June 30, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2021

Cite

APA Colak, Z. (2021). A CAUSALITY ANALYSIS ON FACTORS AFFECTING HOUSING PRICES: CASE OF TURKEY. Journal of Business Economics and Finance, 10(2), 58-71. https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2021.1405

Journal of Business, Economics and Finance (JBEF) is a scientific, academic, double blind peer-reviewed, quarterly and open-access journal. The publication language is English. The journal publishes four issues a year. The issuing months are March, June, September and December. The journal aims to provide a research source for all practitioners, policy makers and researchers working in the areas of business, economics and finance. The Editor of JBEF invites all manuscripts that that cover theoretical and/or applied researches on topics related to the interest areas of the Journal. JBEF charges no submission or publication fee.



Ethics Policy - JBEF applies the standards of Committee on Publication Ethics (COPE). JBEF is committed to the academic community ensuring ethics and quality of manuscripts in publications. Plagiarism is strictly forbidden and the manuscripts found to be plagiarized will not be accepted or if published will be removed from the publication. Authors must certify that their manuscripts are their original work. Plagiarism, duplicate, data fabrication and redundant publications are forbidden. The manuscripts are subject to plagiarism check by iThenticate or similar. All manuscript submissions must provide a similarity report (up to 15% excluding quotes, bibliography, abstract, method).


Open Access - All research articles published in PressAcademia Journals are fully open access; immediately freely available to read, download and share. Articles are published under the terms of a Creative Commons license which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Open access is a property of individual works, not necessarily journals or publishers. Community standards, rather than copyright law, will continue to provide the mechanism for enforcement of proper attribution and responsible use of the published work, as they do now.