The Effects Of Weather On Investor Behavior: A Study On Individual Turkish Stock Market Investors

Year 2014, Volume: 3 Issue: 2, 191 - 206, 01.06.2014

Süleyman İç M. Burak Kahyaoğlu Devlet Odabaş

Abstract

This study aimed at revealing the effects of weather on the investment behaviors of individual investors transacting at BIST (Borsa Istanbul) in the 2009-2011 period, and determining whether the socio-economic and demographic characteristics of investors created any significant difference in those effects. Unlike other studies conducted on this subject, the present study employed real stock purchase and sales data belonging to investors. The analyses conducted demonstrated that the level of cloudiness and temperature were influential on investor behaviors, and the socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of investors created certain differences in those effects. The number of sunny days, the number of overcast days, and sunshine duration were seen to have no effect on investor behaviors.

Keywords

Behavioral finance, decision making under uncertainty, risk perception, weather effect, investor behavior

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• Appendix 1. Seasonal Averages of Weather Variables by Geographic Region SD OD CD MSD AT 1(F. S.) 7,38 4,96 18,2 115,4 12,6 1(S.) 15,6 3,4 13,4 232,8 24,2 1(L. S.) 10,17 3,68 16,6 112 15,8 1(W.) 5,51 6,94 18,54 54,7 7,8 2(F. S.) 9,74 3,33 18,6 211,2 15,08 2(S.) 23,9 1 7,6 328 27,6 2(L. S.) 16,8 1,58 12,4 218,5 18,3 2(W.) 6,36 4,58 19,3 105,1 9,05 3(F. S.) 7,68 1,79 21,9 231,9 17,2 3(S.) 18,6 1 12,2 319 28,08 3(L. S.) 16,02 2,84 13,5 231,4 21,6 3(W.) 6,47 4,59 19,4 128,4 11,7 4(F. S.) 4,86 7,95 17,9 138,4 11,6 4(S.) 8,8 3,47 19,6 241,8 23,4 4(L. S.) 7,2 6,61 17,1 137,3 16,04 4(W.) 4,11 9,9 16,6 57,7 7,8 5(F. S.) 6,71 3,28 19,9 209,3 15,1 5(S.) 16,7 1,26 13,4 327,9 19,6 5(L. S.) 14,3 4,3 13,6 211,8 10,1 5(W.) 4,22 7,96 17,5 101,3 5,87 6(F. S.) 6,9 5 20,8 180 5,1 6(S.) 17,7 1 13,3 300,4 17,5 6(L. S.) 15,1 2,6 13,6 153,2 7,31 6(W.) 7,2 5,8 15,9 66,7 -5,77 7(F. S.) 7,7 3,8 19,6 205 15,6 7(S.) 23,5 1 7,47 336 31,2 7(L. S.) 17 2,85 12,1 212 19,5 7(W.) 8,52 7 14,2 122,7 6,56 1: Marmara Region, 2: Aegean Region, 3:Mediterranean Region, 4: Blacksea Region, 5: Central Anatolia Region, 6: East Anatolia Region, 7: Southeastern Anatolia Region; SD: sunny days, OD: overcast days, CD: cloudy days, MSD: monthly sunshine duration, AT: average temperature, F.S.:first spring, S.: summer, L.S.: last spring, W.: winter.