THE IMPACT OF OIL PRICE SHOCKS ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH OF LIBYA: AN ARDL-BOUND TESTING APPROACH

Year 2020, Volume: 2 Issue: 1, 59 - 81, 30.03.2020

Nagmi Aimer

Abstract

This paper examines how oil price shocks affect the Libyan economic
growth over the period from 1990 to 2016. Using the autoregressive distributed
lag (ARDL) bounds test, the study finds that oil price changes affect the
Libyan economic growth. Oil prices are important in explaining GDP movements.
Moreover, this test suggests that oil price has a long-term positive impact on
economic growth. Our empirical results indicate a two-way causal relationship
between oil prices and GDP, while a one-way causal relationship arises from
imports and trade openness to oil prices. However, oil price shocks do not
appear to have a statistically significant effect on the trade balance. The
result shows that the country should formulate appropriate energy conservation
policies taking into cognizance of her peculiar condition.

Keywords

Oil prices shocks, Economic growth, Libyan economy

References

• Serkan Dİ[e-mail]