YENİ KÜRESEL FİNANSAL MİMARİNİN GELİŞİMİNDE KÜRESEL POLİTİKA BELİRSİZLİKLERİNİN ROLÜ VE ÖNEMİ

Abstract

Amaç- Bu çalışmanın amacı, küresel politika belirsizliklerinin yeni küresel finansal mimarinin gelişimine olan dönemsel etkilerinin hesaplanması ve sonuçların teorik olarak tartışılmasıdır. Yöntem- Çalışmada dinamik katsayıları ve etkileri hesaplayabilmek için Kalman Filtreleme metodu kullanılmıştır. Bağımlı değişken olarak küresel finansal gelişim endeksi seçilmiş; dünya ticaret politikaları belirsizlik, dünya belirsizlik, küresel ekonomi politikaları belirsizlik ve küresel jeopolitik risk endeksleri bağımsız değişkenler olarak seçilmiştir. Bulgular- Elde edilen sonuçlara göre, risk-getiri ilişkisinin teorik çerçevesine uygun olarak belirsizliklerin belirli bir eşik değerde risk noktasına kadar finansal gelişimi olumlu etkilediği bunun üzerinde ise özellikle siyasal ve iktisadi kriz dönemlerinde finansal gelişimi negatif etkilediği gözlemlenmiştir. Sonuç- Sonuç olarak, 2016 sonrası dönemde azalan iktisadi serbestlik ve Covid 19 salgını sebebiyle yavaşlayan finansal gelişme nedeniyle yeni finansal mimarinin güncellenmesi gerektiği iddiası öne sürülmüştür.

Keywords

• Yeni küresel finansal mimari
• küresel politika belirsizlikleri
• Kalman filtreleme

THE ROLE AND IMPORTANCE OF GLOBAL POLICY UNCERTAINTIES IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW GLOBAL FINANCIAL ARCHITECTURE

Abstract

Purpose- The purpose of this study is to calculate the periodic effects of global policy uncertainties on the development of the new global financial architecture and to discuss the results theoretically. Methodology- Kalman Filtering method was used to calculate the dynamic coefficients in the study. Global financial development index, world trade policies uncertainty, world uncertainty, global economic policies uncertainty and global geopolitical risk indices were selected as dependent variables. Findings- According to the results, it is observed that in accordance with the theoretical framework of the risk-return relationship, uncertainties increase financial development up to the optimal risk point, and above this, it has a negative effect on political and economic crisis periods. Conclusion- It has been claimed that the new financial architecture should be updated due to the decline in economic freedom and the financial development that slowed down due to the Covid 19 outbreak in the post-2016 period.

Keywords

• New global financial architecture
• global policy uncertainities
• Kalman filter

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