RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN COVID-19 AND MONEY SUPPLY IN TURKEY: EVIDENCE FROM ARDL BOUNDS TESTING APPROACH

Year 2022, , 82 - 94, 30.06.2022

Gulgun Cıgdem Osman Zekayi Orhan

https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2022.1568

Abstract

Purpose- COVID-19 has been a devastating process. During this period, there was a significant increase in the money supply. So, in this process,
is there a relationship between COVID-19 and the money supply? This study intends to investigate if COVID-19 and the money supply have both
a short- and long-term relationship.
Methodology- Logarithmic conversions were used to examine the number of COVID-19 new cases obtained from the Association of Public
Health Professionals (HASUDER) and the Turkey Republic Ministry of Health, as well as M2 weekly money supply data from the Central Bank of
the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) Electronic Data Distribution System (EVDS). For stationarity tests, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Phillips
Perron (PP), and Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt, and Shin (KPSS) unit root tests were used. Due to the different degrees of stationarity of the
series, cointegration was not possible, so the long-term relationship was evaluated using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). Short-term
analyzes included the VAR Model and the Granger Causality Test.
Findings- COVID-19 and the money supply, according to the findings, are not cointegrated in the long term. It has been discovered that the series
do not move together over the long run. But in the short term, COVID-19 is a Granger cause of the money supply.
Conclusion- The increase in COVID-19 cases positively affects the money supply. An increase in the money supply also leads to inflation. Therefore,
in order to cope with the inflationary process triggered by the pandemic, measures to prevent the increase in COVID-19 cases are important.
These findings will be "confirming" in the design of policies in this process. This study is also a contribution to the literature due to the lack of
studies investigating the response of the money supply to COVID-19.

Keywords

Covid-19, money supply, ARDL bounds testing approach, VAR model, Granger Causality

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