Research Article
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Year 2023, , 21 - 32, 31.03.2023
https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2023.1718

Abstract

References

  • Bilgili, F., Çoban, S., Marangoz, C., Bulut, E., & Kuşkaya, S. (2021). The determinants of demand for tourism in Turkey: Does terror-threat matter? A Markov Regime Switching-VAR approach. Acta Oeconomica, 71(4), 587-607.
  • Chaivichayachat, B. (2019). Forecasting foreign tourists in Thailand by economic condition for tourism ındex. International Journal of Mechanical Engineering and Technology, 10(3), 144-153.
  • Chang, C. L. (2015). Modelling a latent daily tourism financial conditions index. International Review of Economics & Finance, 40, 113-126.
  • Chang, C. L., Hsu, H. K., & McAleer, M. (2017). A tourism financial conditions index for tourism finance. Challenges, 8(2), 1-17.
  • Chiaramonte, L., Croci, E., & Poli, F. (2015). Should we trust the Z-score? Evidence from the European Banking Industry. Global Finance Journal, 28, 111-131.
  • Croce, V. (2016). Can tourism confidence index improve tourism demand forecasts? Journal of Tourism Futures, 2(1), 6-21. https://doi.org/10.1108/JTF-12-2014-0026
  • De La VIina, L. Y., Hollas, D., Merrifield, J., & Ford, J. (1994). A principal components-based tourism activity index. Journal of Travel Research, 32(4), 37-40.
  • Fernández, J. I. P., & Rivero, M. S. (2009). Measuring tourism sustainability: proposal for a composite index. Tourism Economics, 15(2), 277-296.
  • Fetscherin, M., & Stephano, R. M. (2016). The medical tourism index: Scale development and validation. Tourism Management, 52, 539-556.
  • Göktuğ Kaya, M., Onifade, S. T., & Akpinar, A. (2022). Terrorism and tourism: An empirical exemplification of consequences of terrorist attacks on tourism revenues in Turkey. Tourism: An International Interdisciplinary Journal, 70(1), 28-42.
  • Jain, A., Nandakumar, K., & Ross, A. (2005). Score normalization in multimodal biometric systems. Pattern recognition, 38(12), 2270-2285.
  • Jain, S., Shukla, S., & Wadhvani, R. (2018). Dynamic selection of normalization techniques using data complexity measures. Expert Systems with Applications, 106, 252-262.
  • Jain, Y. K., & Bhandare, S. K. (2011). Min max normalization-based data perturbation method for privacy protection. International Journal of Computer & Communication Technology, 2(8), 45-50.
  • Korstanje, M. E. (2023). The Janus Face of Terrorism and Tourism: Terrorism as a Risk, as a Danger and as a Worry. In Safety and Tourism (pp. 103-115). Emerald Publishing Limited.
  • Malkina, M., & Ovcharov, A. (2021). Tourism industry stress index and its relationship to the financial stress index. Tourism and Hospitality Management, 27(2), 363-383.
  • Mare, D. S., Moreira, F., & Rossi, R. (2017). Nonstationary Z-score measures. European Journal of Operational Research, 260(1), 348-358.
  • Mieczkowski, Z. (1985). The tourism climatic index: a method of evaluating world climates for tourism. Canadian Geographer/Le Géographe Canadien, 29(3), 220-233.
  • Nayak, S. C., Misra, B. B., & Behera, H. S. (2014). Impact of data normalization on stock index forecasting. Int. J. Comp. Inf. Syst. Ind. Manag. Appl, 6, 357-369.
  • Olya, H. G., & Alipour, H. (2015). Risk assessment of precipitation and the tourism climate index. Tourism Management, 50, 73-80.
  • Svirydzenka, K. (2016). Introducing a new broad-based index of financial development. IMF Working Paper 16/05.

NEW TOURISM FINANCIAL CONDITION INDEX: EXTENDED WITH TERRORIST ATTACKS

Year 2023, , 21 - 32, 31.03.2023
https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2023.1718

Abstract

Purpose- In this study, a composite indicator that can be followed in the financial markets has been developed. The tourism financial conditions index has been developed in the literature for tourism based on MCI (Monetary Conditions Index) and FCI (Financial Conditions Index). The index is called the Tourism Financial Conditions Index in their studies. This study ensures that the calculation of the tourism index by adding the terror variable to the index can better reflect the expectations.
Methodology- While constructing the composite indicator Z-score is used for standardization. With this standardization terrorist attacks variable is added to the composite indicator. The relationship between New Tourism Financial Composite Indicator and Tourism Stock Market Index Return is analyzed with the Threshold VAR method. This method is used because of the nonlinearity of variables.
Findings: Monthly data for the period 2009:07 – 2017:12 were used in the study. The countries examined are Australia, Denmark, France, Italy, Spain, Türkiye and the UK. It is aimed to examine the relationship between the calculated NTFCI and the Tourism Stock Exchange data of each country. T-VAR results show the relationship between these variables.
Conclusion - In this study, the new version of the TFCI index with terrorist incidents is presented. Chang (2015) developed the TFCI index for the tourism sector. We think that the countries should also consider the effect of terrorism in their economic and financial research in tourism area. Based on this idea, the index was expanded by adding the terror variable to the previously developed TFCI composite indicator and its relationship with the tourism stock market index as a financial indicator was examined. The TVAR model is applied which shows the short-term dynamic relationship. Models for different countries were estimated and similar results were obtained for different countries.

References

  • Bilgili, F., Çoban, S., Marangoz, C., Bulut, E., & Kuşkaya, S. (2021). The determinants of demand for tourism in Turkey: Does terror-threat matter? A Markov Regime Switching-VAR approach. Acta Oeconomica, 71(4), 587-607.
  • Chaivichayachat, B. (2019). Forecasting foreign tourists in Thailand by economic condition for tourism ındex. International Journal of Mechanical Engineering and Technology, 10(3), 144-153.
  • Chang, C. L. (2015). Modelling a latent daily tourism financial conditions index. International Review of Economics & Finance, 40, 113-126.
  • Chang, C. L., Hsu, H. K., & McAleer, M. (2017). A tourism financial conditions index for tourism finance. Challenges, 8(2), 1-17.
  • Chiaramonte, L., Croci, E., & Poli, F. (2015). Should we trust the Z-score? Evidence from the European Banking Industry. Global Finance Journal, 28, 111-131.
  • Croce, V. (2016). Can tourism confidence index improve tourism demand forecasts? Journal of Tourism Futures, 2(1), 6-21. https://doi.org/10.1108/JTF-12-2014-0026
  • De La VIina, L. Y., Hollas, D., Merrifield, J., & Ford, J. (1994). A principal components-based tourism activity index. Journal of Travel Research, 32(4), 37-40.
  • Fernández, J. I. P., & Rivero, M. S. (2009). Measuring tourism sustainability: proposal for a composite index. Tourism Economics, 15(2), 277-296.
  • Fetscherin, M., & Stephano, R. M. (2016). The medical tourism index: Scale development and validation. Tourism Management, 52, 539-556.
  • Göktuğ Kaya, M., Onifade, S. T., & Akpinar, A. (2022). Terrorism and tourism: An empirical exemplification of consequences of terrorist attacks on tourism revenues in Turkey. Tourism: An International Interdisciplinary Journal, 70(1), 28-42.
  • Jain, A., Nandakumar, K., & Ross, A. (2005). Score normalization in multimodal biometric systems. Pattern recognition, 38(12), 2270-2285.
  • Jain, S., Shukla, S., & Wadhvani, R. (2018). Dynamic selection of normalization techniques using data complexity measures. Expert Systems with Applications, 106, 252-262.
  • Jain, Y. K., & Bhandare, S. K. (2011). Min max normalization-based data perturbation method for privacy protection. International Journal of Computer & Communication Technology, 2(8), 45-50.
  • Korstanje, M. E. (2023). The Janus Face of Terrorism and Tourism: Terrorism as a Risk, as a Danger and as a Worry. In Safety and Tourism (pp. 103-115). Emerald Publishing Limited.
  • Malkina, M., & Ovcharov, A. (2021). Tourism industry stress index and its relationship to the financial stress index. Tourism and Hospitality Management, 27(2), 363-383.
  • Mare, D. S., Moreira, F., & Rossi, R. (2017). Nonstationary Z-score measures. European Journal of Operational Research, 260(1), 348-358.
  • Mieczkowski, Z. (1985). The tourism climatic index: a method of evaluating world climates for tourism. Canadian Geographer/Le Géographe Canadien, 29(3), 220-233.
  • Nayak, S. C., Misra, B. B., & Behera, H. S. (2014). Impact of data normalization on stock index forecasting. Int. J. Comp. Inf. Syst. Ind. Manag. Appl, 6, 357-369.
  • Olya, H. G., & Alipour, H. (2015). Risk assessment of precipitation and the tourism climate index. Tourism Management, 50, 73-80.
  • Svirydzenka, K. (2016). Introducing a new broad-based index of financial development. IMF Working Paper 16/05.
There are 20 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Economics, Finance, Business Administration
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Elcin Aykac Alp This is me 0000-0001-9076-2102

Mefule Findikci Erdogan This is me 0000-0003-0150-0990

Publication Date March 31, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2023

Cite

APA Alp, E. A., & Erdogan, M. F. (2023). NEW TOURISM FINANCIAL CONDITION INDEX: EXTENDED WITH TERRORIST ATTACKS. Journal of Economics Finance and Accounting, 10(1), 21-32. https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2023.1718

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