THE ILLUSION OF STABILITY: MACROECONOMIC ADJUSTMENT AND WELFARE DECOUPLING IN AFGHANISTAN AMID COMPOUND CRISES

Abdul Ahmad Pooya

doi:10.17261/Pressacademia.2026.2038

THE ILLUSION OF STABILITY: MACROECONOMIC ADJUSTMENT AND WELFARE DECOUPLING IN AFGHANISTAN AMID COMPOUND CRISES

Abstract

Purpose– This paper evaluates recent macroeconomic stabilization in Afghanistan as indicative of real economic resilience or an absorption- based adjustment amidst severe structural constraints. It examines the impact of compound shocks on workplaces and household well- being in the post-2021 era, including forced migration, returns to their countries, climate shocks, financial isolation, declining aid, and trade shocks. Methodology– The research adopts a descriptive-analytical resilience model, which will compare macroeconomic indicators with the labor market conditions, trade relations, and family welfare outcomes. The transmission between the aggregate stabilization and micro-level livelihoods is evaluated using secondary data from the World Bank, UN agencies, and national sources. Findings– Afghanistan experienced declining GDP per capita, labor market saturation, and deteriorating household welfare despite a 4.3 percent increase in real GDP in 2025 and low inflation. Although real GDP growth was estimated at 4.3 percent and average inflation was low, growth was mainly driven by demographic absorption following high levels of forced returns, rather than by productivity or investment- driven growth. There was an increase in informality, a fall in real wages, an increase in household debt, and worsening food security in conditions of price stability, indicating a high degree of decoupling between macroeconomic stability and welfare. Conclusion– The post-2021 adjustment of Afghanistan is more about stabilization, compression, and absorption, and does not involve adaptive or transformative resilience. The results warn against using GDP growth and price stability as indicators of recovery in weak, aid- reliant economies and highlight the importance of policy interventions grounded in productivity, employment, and inclusion.

Keywords

References

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Finance

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Abdul Ahmad Pooya
0009-0003-5526-6316
China

Publication Date

June 30, 2026

Submission Date

January 5, 2026

Acceptance Date

May 11, 2026

Published in Issue

Year 2026 Volume: 13 Number: 1

DOI

https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2026.2038

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA36KK45FW

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Pooya, A. A. (2026). THE ILLUSION OF STABILITY: MACROECONOMIC ADJUSTMENT AND WELFARE DECOUPLING IN AFGHANISTAN AMID COMPOUND CRISES. Journal of Economics Finance and Accounting, 13(1), 1-19. https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2026.2038

AMA

1.Pooya AA. THE ILLUSION OF STABILITY: MACROECONOMIC ADJUSTMENT AND WELFARE DECOUPLING IN AFGHANISTAN AMID COMPOUND CRISES. JEFA. 2026;13(1):1-19. doi:10.17261/Pressacademia.2026.2038

Chicago

Pooya, Abdul Ahmad. 2026. “THE ILLUSION OF STABILITY: MACROECONOMIC ADJUSTMENT AND WELFARE DECOUPLING IN AFGHANISTAN AMID COMPOUND CRISES”. Journal of Economics Finance and Accounting 13 (1): 1-19. https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2026.2038.

EndNote

Pooya AA (June 1, 2026) THE ILLUSION OF STABILITY: MACROECONOMIC ADJUSTMENT AND WELFARE DECOUPLING IN AFGHANISTAN AMID COMPOUND CRISES. Journal of Economics Finance and Accounting 13 1 1–19.

IEEE

[1]A. A. Pooya, “THE ILLUSION OF STABILITY: MACROECONOMIC ADJUSTMENT AND WELFARE DECOUPLING IN AFGHANISTAN AMID COMPOUND CRISES”, JEFA, vol. 13, no. 1, pp. 1–19, June 2026, doi: 10.17261/Pressacademia.2026.2038.

ISNAD

Pooya, Abdul Ahmad. “THE ILLUSION OF STABILITY: MACROECONOMIC ADJUSTMENT AND WELFARE DECOUPLING IN AFGHANISTAN AMID COMPOUND CRISES”. Journal of Economics Finance and Accounting 13/1 (June 1, 2026): 1-19. https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2026.2038.

JAMA

1.Pooya AA. THE ILLUSION OF STABILITY: MACROECONOMIC ADJUSTMENT AND WELFARE DECOUPLING IN AFGHANISTAN AMID COMPOUND CRISES. JEFA. 2026;13:1–19.

MLA

Pooya, Abdul Ahmad. “THE ILLUSION OF STABILITY: MACROECONOMIC ADJUSTMENT AND WELFARE DECOUPLING IN AFGHANISTAN AMID COMPOUND CRISES”. Journal of Economics Finance and Accounting, vol. 13, no. 1, June 2026, pp. 1-19, doi:10.17261/Pressacademia.2026.2038.

Vancouver

1.Abdul Ahmad Pooya. THE ILLUSION OF STABILITY: MACROECONOMIC ADJUSTMENT AND WELFARE DECOUPLING IN AFGHANISTAN AMID COMPOUND CRISES. JEFA. 2026 Jun. 1;13(1):1-19. doi:10.17261/Pressacademia.2026.2038