Abstract

Avrupa Parasal Birliği’ne üye ülkelerde hem yasal uyumlaştırma hem de maliye politikalarında koordinasyon sağlanmaya çalışılmaktadır. Kriterlere uyma zorunluluğu olan ülkeler aynı zamanda parasal birlik içinde olan ve siyasi birlik hedefinde de öncelikli ülkelerdir. Temel sorun bu noktada ortaya çıkmaktır. Çalışmada, literatürde Avrupa Birliği ülkelerinin maliye politikalarını uyumlaştırmalarında kullanılan ve politikayı açıklayan Maastricht Kriterlerinde belirtilen değişkenlerin yanı sıra ülkelerin GSYİH büyüme oranları ile net ihracat/GSYİH değişkenleri kullanılarak mevcut durum analiz edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Bu analizde Avrupa Parasal Birliği’ne dâhil 12 Avrupa ülkesine yönelik 1986-2011 dönemi için panel vektör otoregresyon analiz yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Ülkeler makroekonomik değişkenlerinin gelişim benzerlikleri göz önüne alınarak iki gruba ayrılmıştır. Ampirik analizde beklentilerimizi doğrular nitelikte iki çarpıcı sonuç elde edilmiştir. (1) GSYİH büyüme oranı ve net ihracat/GSYİH değişkenlerine verilen bir şok en çok Kamu Borcu/GSYİH büyüme oranı değişkeni üzerinden bir tepki yaratmaktadır. (2) Bütçe açığı/GSYİH ile Kamu borcu/GSYİH büyüme oranlarına verilecek şok ise en çok kendileri, daha sonra GSYİH büyüme oranı üzerinden tepki almaktadır

ONE MONEY-MANY FISCAL POLICIES: AN ANALYSIS ON EUROPEAN UNION MACRO VARIABLES

Abstract

European Monetary Union member countries are trying to ensure both legal harmonization and coordination of fiscal policies. Countries which have to accord with the Maastricht criteria are also aim to political union as a member of Monetary Union. The basic problem arises at this point. Utilizing panel vector autoregression analysis and data from 12 member countries of the European Monetary Union during the period 1986-2011, we investigate the relationship between the macroeconomic variables that are specified in Maastricht criteria of fiscal policy harmonization as well as the GDP growth rates and net exports/GDP. Countries are divided into two groups considering macroeconomic development similarities. The empirical analysis confirms our expectations in two striking results: (1) A shock to GDP growth rate and net export/GDP mostly decreases public debt/GDP growth rate. (2) The deficit/GDP and public debt/GDP growth rates shows an expected positive response to a shock in themselves and then an expected negative response to GDP growth rate.

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