Investigating the link between savings, inflation and economic growth: an ARDL analysis for the case of Turkey

Abstract

The aim of this study is to investigate the short and the long-run relationship between saving, inflation, and economic growth in Turkey for the period 2003:1 to 2012:2. Since the data has different integration orders (i.e. I(0) and I(1)), the approach of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) was utilized for the analysis. Results showed that saving, inflation and economic growth are cointegrated and either inflation or economic growth has positive impacts on the savings in the Turkish economy. However, no statistically significant relationship found between the inflation and savings in the short-run and, the interest rates and savings in the long-run. In addition, findings revealed that, among the variables and time period in consideration, economic growth is the variable having the most explanatory power on the savings in the Turkish economy.

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