Analysis of economic growth of Turkey: past and pre 2001 financial crisis

Abstract

It has been seen that growth performance of Turkish economy has decreased in the last twenty-five years. Especially in the 1990s instability in macroeconomy increased with the impact of the developments in the financial market, crisis that began in financial market in 1994 and 2001 has led to the contraction of the real economy severely. However, 2001 financial crisis, resulting in unexpected economic contraction, is a milestone. Considering the indicators of 2001, the size of the contraction can be well understood, it is observed that concrete steps are taken towards the prevention and overcoming of the crisis deepening. The continuity ensured in the fiscal discipline, implementation of structural reforms and the tight monetary policy focused on price stability have had a positive impact on inflationary expectations of economic agents. Economy grew by an average 3.1% during the 19902001 period before the 2001 financial crisis; after then during the 2002-2006 period, economy has entered a rapid growth process and has grown average annual rate of 7.2%, and 3.3 % in the 2007-2012 period. In the 2002-2012 period private sector consumption and investment spending constituted the most important source of demand-side growth, in this period the rise of current account deficit due to increasing economic growth, failure to carry out a growth based on employment and increased productivity of the industrial sector which is provided with cheap labor are the drawback of this period. After 2007, the major cause of the decline in growth is global crisis. In this study, developments in growth as a result of the economic program implemented after the financial crisis of 2001 will be discussed. In this respect, in order to analyze the relationship between economic growth, unemployment rate, interest rate and investment by using variables of the 1990-2012 period, Chow test will be applied. In the analysis, the reason for using Chow test is whether there is any difference in economic terms between the policies implemented for economic growth in the 1990-2001 period and policies implemented in the 20022012 period after the financial crisis of 2001 as a result of the structural transformation. 1. INTRODUCTION

References

1. Alper, E. (2001), The Turkish Liquidity Crisis of 2000: What Went Wrong, Russian and East European Finance and Trade, Vol. 37, No. 6: 51-71.
2. Ay, A. ve Karaçor, Z., (2006). 2001 Sonrası Dönemde Türkiye Ekonomisinde Krizden Büyümeye Geçiş Üzerine Bir
3. Tartışma, Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, Vol.16, s.67-86. BDDK 2010. Krizden İstikrara Türkiye Tecrübesi, Çalışma Tebliği
4. Buluş,A. (2009). Türk İktisat Politikalarının Tarihi Temelleri, Tablet Kitabevi, 2. Basım, Konya
5. Celasun, M. (2002). 2001 Krizi, Öncesi ve Sonrası: Makroekonomik ve Mali Bir Değerlendirme, Küreselleşme,
6. Emek Süreçleri ve Yapısal Uyum (Ed. A. Dikmen). Türk Sosyal Bilimler Derneği, İmge Yayınları, Ankara. Çeçen, A., Doğruel, S. Ve Doğruel, F. (1996). Türkiye’de Ekonomik Büyüme Yapısal Dönüşüm ve Kriz, Ege Yayınları
7. Hazine Müsteşarlığı, (2001). Türkiye’nin Güçlü Ekonomiye Geçiş Programı: Hedefler, Politikalar ve Uygulamalar,
8. T.C. Başbakanlık Hazine Müsteşarlık Matbaası Hazine Müsteşarlığı, (2014). Türkiye Ekonomisi, www.hazine.gov.tr, (E.T.: 05.03.2014)

9. Karaçor,Z. (2012). Ekonomi Politikası ve Türkiye, Çizgi Kitabevi, Konya
10. Karaçor, Z., Erdoğan, S. Ve P. H. Er. (2013). Analysis of the Effect of 1980 Transformation on the Foreign Trade of
11. Turkey with Chow Test, World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology 77. Maliye Bakanlığı, (2008). Yıllık Ekonomik Raporu, www.sgb.gov.tr, (E.T.: 05.03.2014)
12. Maliye Bakanlığı, (2009). Yıllık Ekonomik Raporu, www.sgb.gov.tr, (E.T.: 05.03.2014)
13. Maliye Bakanlığı, (2010). Yıllık Ekonomik Raporu, www.sgb.gov.tr, (E.T.: 05.03.2014)
14. Maliye Bakanlığı, (2011). Yıllık Ekonomik Raporu, www.sgb.gov.tr, (E.T.: 05.03.2014)
15. Maliye Bakanlığı, (2012). Yıllık Ekonomik Raporu, www.sgb.gov.tr, (E.T.: 05.03.2014)
16. Maliye Bakanlığı, (2013). Yıllık Ekonomik Raporu, www.sgb.gov.tr, (E.T.: 05.03.2014)
17. Özeren, S. (2012). 2001 Krizi Sonrası Ekonomik Büyüme, İstihdamdaki Gelişmeler ve Beklentiler, Türkiye Ekonomi
18. Kurumu Tartışma Metni 2012/81
19. Özatay, F. (1996). The Lessons from the 1994 Crisis in Turkey:Public Debt (Mis) Management and Condifence
20. Crisis”, Yapı Kredi Economic Review, 7, 1, June. Özatay, F. ve G. Sak (2002). The 2000-2001 Financial Crisis in Turkey, Brookings Trade Forum 2002 için sunulan makale.
21. Taban, S. (2011). Küresel Finans Kriz Öncesi ve Sonrası Dönemde Türkiye’de Ekonomik Büyümenin Dinamikleri, Seta Analiz, s.37.
22. Turan, Z., (2005). Türkiye Ekonomisinde Kasım 2000-Şubat 2001 Krizleri, Tühis-Ağustos
23. TÜİK (2012), İstatistik Göstergeler 1923-2011, www.tuik.gov.tr, (E.T.: 05.03.2014)
24. TÜİK (2012), Türkiye İstatistik Yıllığı 2011, www.tuik.gov.tr, (E.T.: 05.03.2014)
25. TÜİK (2013), Türkiye İstatistik Yıllığı 2012, www.tuik.gov.tr, (E.T.: 05.03.2014)
26. Yılanoğlu, Z., (2008). Türkiye’nin Dış Ticaretinin Yapısal Dönüşümü (1980-2007), Master’s Thesis, Süleyman
27. Demirel Üniversitesi.