PREDICTING FUTURE CRYPTOCURRENCY INVESTMENT TRENDS BY CONJOINT ANALYSIS

Year 2018, , 321 - 330, 30.12.2018

Nurgun Komsuoglu Yilmaz , Hulya Boydas Hazar

https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2018.999

Abstract

Purpose- Trade goods have been used as exchange mediums since the first humans. A thousand years ago currency was invented, and it

became the dominant exchange medium in today’s world. The history of money did not end with the invention of fiat currency, such as US

Dollar or Euro. Cryptocurrency is the new development. It is not a trade good, nor a fiat money. “It is a new, experimental kind of money.”

In this study our purpose is to analyze the factors influencing investors’ decision making on investment in cryptocurrencies by using

conjoint analysis. Studies suggest that some attributes of cryptocurrencies affect decisions of investors. In this study, the attributes at

different levels related to investors’ expectations on cryptocurrencies are examined.

Methodology- In this study, conjoint analysis has been conducted. Conjoint method is a statistical analysis method and by using this

method researchers determine the value of the attributes of a product or a feature for its consumers. Conjoint analysis is a method for

analyzing preferences of customers; it is a useful tool for predicting and determining responses of customers to new product features and

totally new products. In this case customers are investors and the new product is cryptocurrencies. Conjoint analysis has several types,

choice based conjoint analysis is one of them and it is the preferred method for most of the researchers.

Findings- Data collected for the study has been analyzed by using Marketing Engineering for Excel software. The findings of the study

indicate that profitability, bookkeeping and security are the most important attributes which influence expectations of investors in

cryptocurrencies. Five attributes with five levels each are chosen. It is predicted that these attributes are the most important indicators of

investor behavior. According to research findings, most important attribute for investors is profitability. This study confirms that the

majority of investors have high profit expectation from crypto currencies. But study results also include some unexpected findings.

Anonymity is not one of the main concerns for investors and almost equal number of investors prefers very high and very low level of

bookkeeping.

Conclusion- The conjoint analysis gives a clear view on what investors expect from cryptocurrencies. The results show the attributes to

improve when developing a cryptocurrency.

Keywords

Bitcoin, cryptocurrency, investment, investor expectations, conjoint analysis

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