Research Article
BibTex RIS Cite
Year 2021, , 109 - 116, 30.06.2021
https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2021.1396

Abstract

References

  • Akkas, M. E. 2015(a). Altın getirileri dağılımının Newcomb-Benford kanunu ile tespiti. Uluslararası Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi. 8(40), 577-584.
  • Akkas, M. E. 2015(b). ABD doları ve Avro döviz kurlarının nümerik desen analizi. Karabük Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi. 5(2), 215-226.
  • Alagoz, A., Ay, M. (2001). Muhasebe denetiminde Benford Kanunu temelli dijital analiz. Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal ve Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi.(4), 59-76.
  • Amiram, D, Lyandres, E., Rabetti, D. (2021). Competition and product quality: fake trading on crypto exchanges. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3745617 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3745617.
  • Benford, F., (1938). The law of anomalous numbers. American Philosophical Society.78(4), 551-572.
  • Chan, J., Liu, T., Xue, E., (2013). Analyzing the Bitcoin transaction graph: a look at mixers and traceability. https://css.csail.mit.edu/6.858/2013/projects/jeffchan-exue-tanyaliu.pdf
  • Cipp, C., Phillips J., Mai, A, (2013). The hacker’s code: finding Bitcoin thieves through the similarity and status claims between users. Stanford CS 224W - Team 39C – S 224W Final Report.
  • Cong, L. Li, X. Tang, K., Yang, Y. (2019). Crypto wash trading. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3530220 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3530220.
  • Carkacıoglu, A., (2016). Kripto-para Bitcoin. Sermaye Piyasası Kurulu Araştırma Raporu. Ankara.
  • Dodgson, M., Gann, D. M. , George, G., (2015). Managing digital money. The Academy of Management Journal.58 (2), 325-333.
  • Doğan, Z., Buyrukoglu, S. and Kutbay, H. (2018). Türkiye’de Bitcoin işlemlerinin vergilendirilmesi ve muhasebeleştirilmesine ilişkin oneriler. Vergi Sorunları Dergisi (361), 32-40.
  • Houben, R., Snyers, A. (2018). Cryptocurrencies and blockchain legal context and ımplications for financial crime, money laundering and tax evasion. The European Parliament’s Special Committee on Financial Crimes. http://www.europarl.europa.eu/cmsdata/150761/TAX3%20Study%20on%20cryptocurrencies%20and%20blockchain.pdf,
  • Jermann, U. J. (2018). Bitcoin, Cagan’s model of hyperinflation. Available at SSRN:https://ssrn.com/abstract=3132050 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3132050
  • Gandal, N., Hamrick, JT, Moore, T., Oberman, T. (2017). Price manipulation in the Bitcoin ecosystem. Journal of Monetary Economics. DOI:10.1016 https://tylermoore.utulsa.edu/jme17appendix.pdf
  • Ley, E. (1996). On the peculiar distribution of the U.S. stock indexes digits. The American Statistician.50(4), 311-313.
  • Newcomb, S. (1881). Note on the frequency of the use of digits in natural numbers. American Journal of Mathematics.(4), 39-40.
  • Pearson, K.(1900). On a criterion that a given system of deviations from the probable ın the case of a correlated system of variables ıs such that ıt can be reasonably supposed to have arisen from random sampling. Philosophical Magazine. 5(50), 157–175.
  • Poyser, O. (2017). Exploring the determinants of Bitcoin’s price: an application of bayesian structural time series. Dissertation. https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1706/1706.01437.pdf
  • Peterson, T. (2020). To the moon: a history of Bitcoin price manipulation. Journal of Forensic and Investigative Accounting. 13(2), Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3639431 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3639431
  • Sermaye Piyasası Kurulu (2003). Hisse senedi piyasasında manipülasyon: kullanılan yöntem örnekleri, manipülatif işlem kalıbı örnekleri, korunma yolları. http://www.spk.gov.tr/Duyuru/Dosya/20031215/0
  • Shengmin, Z., Wenchao, W. (2010). Does Chinese Stock Indices agree with Benford’s Law?. Management and Service Science (MAASS). 2010 International Conference on Management and Service Science. DOI:10.1109/ICMSS.2010.5575999
  • Uzuner, M.T.(2014). Benford Yasasının Borsa İstanbul’da işlem gören bankaların konsolide bilançolarına uygulanması. Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi. 5(10), 73-82.
  • Veres, I. (2019). Identification of unusual transactions in Blockchain networks. Master’s Thesis. Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava. Faculty of Informatics and Information Technologies. Institute of Computer Engineering and Applied Informatics.
  • Wist, H. (2019). Assessing the conformity of cryptocurrency market data with Benford’s Law. Master´s Thesis, University of Vaasa. Faculty of Business Studies. Department of Accounting and Finance

THE SUSPICION OF MANIPULATION IN BITCOIN RETURNS: AN INVESTIGATION WITH BENFORD’S LAW

Year 2021, , 109 - 116, 30.06.2021
https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2021.1396

Abstract

Purpose- Bitcoin is a blockchain-based digital currency that can be generated via data mining. Several complex computational methods along with random processes have been utilized in the production of that currency. Nonetheless, it is an important research question whether this process, which have been taking place in a entirely digital platform, involves manipulation. Accordingly, the amount of Bitcoin in circulation would involve manipulation as much as the Bitcoin price and returns do.
Methodology- Related tests are performed to detect compliance with Benford’s Law in the analyses conducted on the issue. Distribution frequency of the digits can be determined by Benford’s Law in order to determine whether the random digital database is manipulated. In order to detect any possible manipulation in Bitcoin returns, the Chi-Square test is performed
Findings- With the daily Bitcoin price data obtained over the period between 02.02.2012 - 10.02.2020 its found out that Bİtcoin prices comply with Benford’s Law reference distribution.
Conclusion- According to the results of the analysis, it is concluded that the Bitcoin returns comply with Benford’s Law. Therefore, there is no possible manipulation on the Bitcoin returns throughout the study period.

References

  • Akkas, M. E. 2015(a). Altın getirileri dağılımının Newcomb-Benford kanunu ile tespiti. Uluslararası Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi. 8(40), 577-584.
  • Akkas, M. E. 2015(b). ABD doları ve Avro döviz kurlarının nümerik desen analizi. Karabük Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi. 5(2), 215-226.
  • Alagoz, A., Ay, M. (2001). Muhasebe denetiminde Benford Kanunu temelli dijital analiz. Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal ve Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi.(4), 59-76.
  • Amiram, D, Lyandres, E., Rabetti, D. (2021). Competition and product quality: fake trading on crypto exchanges. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3745617 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3745617.
  • Benford, F., (1938). The law of anomalous numbers. American Philosophical Society.78(4), 551-572.
  • Chan, J., Liu, T., Xue, E., (2013). Analyzing the Bitcoin transaction graph: a look at mixers and traceability. https://css.csail.mit.edu/6.858/2013/projects/jeffchan-exue-tanyaliu.pdf
  • Cipp, C., Phillips J., Mai, A, (2013). The hacker’s code: finding Bitcoin thieves through the similarity and status claims between users. Stanford CS 224W - Team 39C – S 224W Final Report.
  • Cong, L. Li, X. Tang, K., Yang, Y. (2019). Crypto wash trading. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3530220 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3530220.
  • Carkacıoglu, A., (2016). Kripto-para Bitcoin. Sermaye Piyasası Kurulu Araştırma Raporu. Ankara.
  • Dodgson, M., Gann, D. M. , George, G., (2015). Managing digital money. The Academy of Management Journal.58 (2), 325-333.
  • Doğan, Z., Buyrukoglu, S. and Kutbay, H. (2018). Türkiye’de Bitcoin işlemlerinin vergilendirilmesi ve muhasebeleştirilmesine ilişkin oneriler. Vergi Sorunları Dergisi (361), 32-40.
  • Houben, R., Snyers, A. (2018). Cryptocurrencies and blockchain legal context and ımplications for financial crime, money laundering and tax evasion. The European Parliament’s Special Committee on Financial Crimes. http://www.europarl.europa.eu/cmsdata/150761/TAX3%20Study%20on%20cryptocurrencies%20and%20blockchain.pdf,
  • Jermann, U. J. (2018). Bitcoin, Cagan’s model of hyperinflation. Available at SSRN:https://ssrn.com/abstract=3132050 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3132050
  • Gandal, N., Hamrick, JT, Moore, T., Oberman, T. (2017). Price manipulation in the Bitcoin ecosystem. Journal of Monetary Economics. DOI:10.1016 https://tylermoore.utulsa.edu/jme17appendix.pdf
  • Ley, E. (1996). On the peculiar distribution of the U.S. stock indexes digits. The American Statistician.50(4), 311-313.
  • Newcomb, S. (1881). Note on the frequency of the use of digits in natural numbers. American Journal of Mathematics.(4), 39-40.
  • Pearson, K.(1900). On a criterion that a given system of deviations from the probable ın the case of a correlated system of variables ıs such that ıt can be reasonably supposed to have arisen from random sampling. Philosophical Magazine. 5(50), 157–175.
  • Poyser, O. (2017). Exploring the determinants of Bitcoin’s price: an application of bayesian structural time series. Dissertation. https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1706/1706.01437.pdf
  • Peterson, T. (2020). To the moon: a history of Bitcoin price manipulation. Journal of Forensic and Investigative Accounting. 13(2), Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3639431 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3639431
  • Sermaye Piyasası Kurulu (2003). Hisse senedi piyasasında manipülasyon: kullanılan yöntem örnekleri, manipülatif işlem kalıbı örnekleri, korunma yolları. http://www.spk.gov.tr/Duyuru/Dosya/20031215/0
  • Shengmin, Z., Wenchao, W. (2010). Does Chinese Stock Indices agree with Benford’s Law?. Management and Service Science (MAASS). 2010 International Conference on Management and Service Science. DOI:10.1109/ICMSS.2010.5575999
  • Uzuner, M.T.(2014). Benford Yasasının Borsa İstanbul’da işlem gören bankaların konsolide bilançolarına uygulanması. Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi. 5(10), 73-82.
  • Veres, I. (2019). Identification of unusual transactions in Blockchain networks. Master’s Thesis. Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava. Faculty of Informatics and Information Technologies. Institute of Computer Engineering and Applied Informatics.
  • Wist, H. (2019). Assessing the conformity of cryptocurrency market data with Benford’s Law. Master´s Thesis, University of Vaasa. Faculty of Business Studies. Department of Accounting and Finance
There are 24 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Finance, Business Administration
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Omer Iskenderoglu This is me 0000-0002-3407-1259

Nazif Ayyıldız This is me 0000-0002-7364-8436

Publication Date June 30, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2021

Cite

APA Iskenderoglu, O., & Ayyıldız, N. (2021). THE SUSPICION OF MANIPULATION IN BITCOIN RETURNS: AN INVESTIGATION WITH BENFORD’S LAW. Journal of Economics Finance and Accounting, 8(2), 109-116. https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2021.1396

Journal of Economics, Finance and Accounting (JEFA) is a scientific, academic, double blind peer-reviewed, quarterly and open-access online journal. The journal publishes four issues a year. The issuing months are March, June, September and December. The publication languages of the Journal are English and Turkish. JEFA aims to provide a research source for all practitioners, policy makers, professionals and researchers working in the area of economics, finance, accounting and auditing. The editor in chief of JEFA invites all manuscripts that cover theoretical and/or applied researches on topics related to the interest areas of the Journal. JEFA publishes academic research studies only. JEFA charges no submission or publication fee.

Ethics Policy - JEFA applies the standards of Committee on Publication Ethics (COPE). JEFA is committed to the academic community ensuring ethics and quality of manuscripts in publications. Plagiarism is strictly forbidden and the manuscripts found to be plagiarized will not be accepted or if published will be removed from the publication. Authors must certify that their manuscripts are their original work. Plagiarism, duplicate, data fabrication and redundant publications are forbidden. The manuscripts are subject to plagiarism check by iThenticate or similar. All manuscript submissions must provide a similarity report (up to 15% excluding quotes, bibliography, abstract and method).

Open Access - All research articles published in PressAcademia Journals are fully open access; immediately freely available to read, download and share. Articles are published under the terms of a Creative Commons license which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Open access is a property of individual works, not necessarily journals or publishers. Community standards, rather than copyright law, will continue to provide the mechanism for enforcement of proper attribution and responsible use of the published work, as they do now.