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Year 2014, Volume: 1 Issue: 4, 0 - 0, 16.10.2015

Ozay Ozpence , Dilek Durusu Ciftci

Abstract

Avrupa Parasal Birliği’ne üye ülkelerde hem yasal uyumlaştırma hem de maliye politikalarında koordinasyon sağlanmaya çalışılmaktadır. Kriterlere uyma zorunluluğu olan ülkeler aynı zamanda parasal birlik içinde olan ve siyasi birlik hedefinde de öncelikli ülkelerdir. Temel sorun bu noktada ortaya çıkmaktır. Çalışmada, literatürde Avrupa Birliği ülkelerinin maliye politikalarını uyumlaştırmalarında kullanılan ve politikayı açıklayan Maastricht Kriterlerinde belirtilen değişkenlerin yanı sıra ülkelerin GSYİH büyüme oranları ile net ihracat/GSYİH değişkenleri kullanılarak mevcut durum analiz edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Bu analizde Avrupa Parasal Birliği’ne dâhil 12 Avrupa ülkesine yönelik 1986-2011 dönemi için panel vektör otoregresyon analiz yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Ülkeler makroekonomik değişkenlerinin gelişim benzerlikleri göz önüne alınarak iki gruba ayrılmıştır. Ampirik analizde beklentilerimizi doğrular nitelikte iki çarpıcı sonuç elde edilmiştir. (1) GSYİH büyüme oranı ve net ihracat/GSYİH değişkenlerine verilen bir şok en çok Kamu Borcu/GSYİH büyüme oranı değişkeni üzerinden bir tepki yaratmaktadır. (2) Bütçe açığı/GSYİH ile Kamu borcu/GSYİH büyüme oranlarına verilecek şok ise en çok kendileri, daha sonra GSYİH büyüme oranı üzerinden tepki almaktadır

References

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  • Arellano, M., ve Bover, O. (1995), Another Look at the Insturmental Variable Estimation and Error Components
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  • (http://ec.europa.eu/soteu2012/, Erişim:25.11.2012).
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  • Dewatripont. M., Hagen. J. V., Sapir. A., Rosenthal. H., Harden. I. (1995), Flexible Integration (Towards a More
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  • Kenen, P. B. (1969), The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas: An Eclectic View in Mundell and Swoboda, (eds.),
  • Monetary Problems of the International Economy, University of Chicago Press, Chicago. Krugman, P. (1990), Policy Problems of a Monetary Union, P. De Grauve ve L. Papademos (eds.) içerisinde, The European Monetary System in the 1990s, London: Longman. 48-64.
  • Love, I. ve Zicchino, L. (2006), Financial Development and Dynamic Investment Behaviour: Evidence from Panel
  • VAR, The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 46, 190-210. Martin, K. (1951), The Customs Union Issue, (Review of Viner, Jacob (1950), The Custom Union Issue, Stevens for
  • The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, p. 221. )International Affairs (Royal Institute of International Affairs 1944- ), 27(1), 75.
  • McKinnon, R. I. (1963), Optimum Currency Areas, The American Economic Review, 53(4), 717-725.
  • Mongelli, F. P. (2005), What is European Economic and Monetary Union Telling Us About The Properties of
  • Optimum Currency Areas?, JCMS, 43(3), 624. Mundell, R. A. (1961), A Theory Of Optimum Currency Areas, The American Economic Review, 51 (4), 657-665.
  • OECD (2011), Economic Surveys IRELAND, October.
  • Reinhart, C. M., Rogoff, K. S. (2008), Is the 2007 U.S. Sub-Prime Financial Crisis so Different? An International
  • Historical Comparison, American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings, 98:2, 339-344. Sims, C.A. (1980), Macroeconomics and Reality, Econometrica, 48(1), 1-33. UN DATA; http://data.un.org/Data.aspx?q=Gross+Domestic+Product+luxembourg&d=IFS&f=SeriesCode%3A99%3B CountryCode%3A137, (13.01.2013)
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ONE MONEY-MANY FISCAL POLICIES: AN ANALYSIS ON EUROPEAN UNION MACRO VARIABLES

Year 2014, Volume: 1 Issue: 4, 0 - 0, 16.10.2015

Ozay Ozpence , Dilek Durusu Ciftci

Abstract

European Monetary Union member countries are trying to ensure both legal harmonization and coordination of fiscal policies. Countries which have to accord with the Maastricht criteria are also aim to political union as a member of Monetary Union. The basic problem arises at this point. Utilizing panel vector autoregression analysis and data from 12 member countries of the European Monetary Union during the period 1986-2011, we investigate the relationship between the macroeconomic variables that are specified in Maastricht criteria of fiscal policy harmonization as well as the GDP growth rates and net exports/GDP. Countries are divided into two groups considering macroeconomic development similarities. The empirical analysis confirms our expectations in two striking results: (1) A shock to GDP growth rate and net export/GDP mostly decreases public debt/GDP growth rate. (2) The deficit/GDP and public debt/GDP growth rates shows an expected positive response to a shock in themselves and then an expected negative response to GDP growth rate.

References

  • Abrego, L., Riezman, R., Whalley, J. (2005), Computation and The Theory of Customs Unions, CESifo Economic Studies, 51(1), 117-132.
  • Arellano, M., ve Bover, O. (1995), Another Look at the Insturmental Variable Estimation and Error Components
  • Model, Journal of Econometrics, 68, 29-51. Barosso, Jose Manuel (2012), State of the Union (to the European Parliament), European Commission,
  • (http://ec.europa.eu/soteu2012/, Erişim:25.11.2012).
  • Bean, C. R. (1992), Economic and Monetary Union in Europe, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 6(4), 33-41.
  • Dewatripont. M., Hagen. J. V., Sapir. A., Rosenthal. H., Harden. I. (1995), Flexible Integration (Towards a More
  • Effective and Democratic Europe – Monitoring European Integration 6), Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), London, 54. Dowson, W. H. (1927), The Pan-European Movement, The Economic Journal, 37(145), 62-63.
  • Dörry, S. (2012), Luxembourg’s Specialisation as a Financial Centre within the Global Value Networks of Investment Funds, CEPS, http://www.statistiques.public.lu/catalogue-publications/working-papers-CEPS/2012/40-2012.pdf, (12.01.2013) Paper Working No: 2012-40, December, Luxembourg,
  • Fulbright, J. W., (1948), A United States of Europe?, The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, May, 257(1), 151-156.
  • Grauwe, P. D. (2003), Economics of Monetary Union, Fifth Edition, Oxford University Press, Great Britain, 202.
  • Grauwe, P. D., Mongelli, F. P. (2005), Endogeneities of Optimum Currency Areas, What Brings Countries Sharing A
  • Single Currency Closer Together?, European Central Bank, Working Paper Series, 468, p. 24. Henderson, W. (1951), Otto, Review: Customs Union, The Economic History Review, New Series, 3(3), 399.
  • Kalemli-Özcan, Ş., Sorensen, B. E., and Yosha, O. (2001), Economic Integration, Industrial Specialization, and the Asymmetry of Macroeconomic Fluctuations, Journal of International Economics, 55(1), 107–137.
  • Kenen, P. B. (1969), The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas: An Eclectic View in Mundell and Swoboda, (eds.),
  • Monetary Problems of the International Economy, University of Chicago Press, Chicago. Krugman, P. (1990), Policy Problems of a Monetary Union, P. De Grauve ve L. Papademos (eds.) içerisinde, The European Monetary System in the 1990s, London: Longman. 48-64.
  • Love, I. ve Zicchino, L. (2006), Financial Development and Dynamic Investment Behaviour: Evidence from Panel
  • VAR, The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 46, 190-210. Martin, K. (1951), The Customs Union Issue, (Review of Viner, Jacob (1950), The Custom Union Issue, Stevens for
  • The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, p. 221. )International Affairs (Royal Institute of International Affairs 1944- ), 27(1), 75.
  • McKinnon, R. I. (1963), Optimum Currency Areas, The American Economic Review, 53(4), 717-725.
  • Mongelli, F. P. (2005), What is European Economic and Monetary Union Telling Us About The Properties of
  • Optimum Currency Areas?, JCMS, 43(3), 624. Mundell, R. A. (1961), A Theory Of Optimum Currency Areas, The American Economic Review, 51 (4), 657-665.
  • OECD (2011), Economic Surveys IRELAND, October.
  • Reinhart, C. M., Rogoff, K. S. (2008), Is the 2007 U.S. Sub-Prime Financial Crisis so Different? An International
  • Historical Comparison, American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings, 98:2, 339-344. Sims, C.A. (1980), Macroeconomics and Reality, Econometrica, 48(1), 1-33. UN DATA; http://data.un.org/Data.aspx?q=Gross+Domestic+Product+luxembourg&d=IFS&f=SeriesCode%3A99%3B CountryCode%3A137, (13.01.2013)
  • Viner, J. (1950), Customs Union as an Approach to Free Trade, The Customs Union Issue, Stevens and Sons, 41
There are 25 citations in total.

Details

Journal Section Articles
Authors

Ozay Ozpence

Dilek Durusu Ciftci

Publication Date October 16, 2015
Published in Issue Year 2014 Volume: 1 Issue: 4

Cite

APA Ozpence, O., & Ciftci, D. D. (2015). ONE MONEY-MANY FISCAL POLICIES: AN ANALYSIS ON EUROPEAN UNION MACRO VARIABLES. Journal of Economics Finance and Accounting, 1(4).

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