ASYA ÜLKELERİNİN DÖVİZ KURU SEÇİMİNİ ETKİLEYEN FAKTÖRLER

Year 2018, Volume: 5 Issue: 4, 373 - 384, 30.12.2018

Nuray Terzi

https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2018.1004

Abstract

Amaç - Her bir kur sisteminin kendine has özellikleri, avantaj ve dezavantajı ülke ekonomisinin finansal istikrarı üzerinde belirleyici rol oynamaktadır. Bu nedenle doğru döviz kuru sisteminin seçimi ülkelerin ekonomik performansı açısından önemlidir. Bu çalışma Asya ekonomilerinin döviz kuru seçimini etkileyen faktörleri incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır.

Metodoloji – Asya ekonomilerinin döviz kuru seçimini etkileyen faktörler teorik bir çerçevede incelenecektir. IMF raporları ışığında, Asya ülkelerinin döviz kuru politikaları verilecek ve ilgili literatür değerlendirilecektir.

Bulgular- Döviz kuru seçiminde hem ulusal hem de uluslararası faktörler etkili olmaktadır. Ekonomi politikaları, kurumlar ve rejimler, ulusal faktörler arasında yer alırken, uluslararası faktörler ABD’nin politikası, uluslararası kurumlar ve finansal krizleri içermektedir.

Sonuç- Döviz kuru seçiminde, Asya ekonomileri zamanın değişen şartlarına göre uygun pozisyon almayı tercih etmişlerdir. Küresel ekonomik ve siyasi ilişkilerin artması döviz kuru sistemlerini etkilemekte ve rekabetçi döviz kurlarının uygulanmasını teşvik etmektedir.

Keywords

Döviz kuru politikaları, Asya ülkeleri, finansal krizler, ekonomi politikaları, politik ekonomi

FACTORS AFFECTING THE CHOICE OF EXCHANGE RATE OF ASIAN COUNTRIES

Abstract

Purpose - The unique features of each exchange rate system, the advantage and disadvantage of them play a decisive role on the financial stability of the country's economy. Therefore, the choice of the right exchange rate system is important for the economic performance of the countries. This study aims to examine the factors affecting the choice of exchange rate of Asian countries.

Methodology - The factors affecting exchange rate selection of Asian economies will be studied within a theoretical framework. In the light of IMF reports, exchange rate policies of Asian countries will be given and relevant literature will be evaluated.

Findings- Both national and international factors are effective in the exchange rate selection. While economic policies, institutions and regimes are among national factors, international factors include US policy, international institutions and financial crises.

Conclusion- In the choice of the exchange rate, Asian economies prefer to take appropriate positions according to the changing conditions of time. The increase in global economic and political relations affects exchange rate systems, and therefore encourages the implementation of competitive exchange rates.

Keywords

Exchange rate policies, Asian countries, financial crisis, economy policies, political economy

References

• Aizenman, J ve J. Lee, (2008). Financial Versus Monetary Mercantilism, Long Run View of Large International Reserves Hoarding. World Economy, 31 (5), 593-611.
• Bénassy-Quéré, A. ve A. Lahrèche-Révil, (2003). Trade Linkages and Exchange Rates in Asia: The Role of China, CEPII, No. 2003-21,Aralık.
• Broz, J.L (2002). Political System Transparency and Monetary Commitment Regimes, International Organizations 56(4) 861-87.
• Calvo G. ve C. Reinhart, (2000). Fear of Floating , National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 7993, November.
• Calvo, G. ve C. Reinhart (2000a): Fixing For Your Life, NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper 8006, November.
• Calvo G. ve C. Reinhart (2002). Fear of Floating. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2002, 117 (2): 379–408.
• Caporale, G.M, A.Luis, G. Alana ve K. You (2016). Exchange Rate Linkages Between Asean Curencies, The US Dollar and The Chines Renminbi, Bank of Finland Research, Discussion Paper, 20.
• Cavoli, T. V. Pontines ve R. S. Rajan, (2012). Managed Floating by Stealth : The Case of Taiwan, Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 17(3): 514-26.
• Chang, H. ve I. Grabel (2005) Kalkınma Yeniden, Çev. Emre Özçelik, İmge Kitabevi.
• Cumings, B. (1999) The Asian Crisis, Democracy and the End of Late Development” In T.J. Pempel (ed) The Politics of Asian Economic Crisis, Ithaca NY: Cornell University Press 17-44.
• Eichhengreen, B. (2007) The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth, Social and Economics Stıudies 56(4), 7-20.
• Frankel,J A. (2004). Experience and Lessons from Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Economies, Monetary and Financial Integration, Vol. 2, 91-138, Palgrave Macmillan Press, New York, 2004.
• Frieden, J. (2002) Real Sources of European Currency Policy, International Organization 56(4) 831-60.
• Hamilton-Hart, N. (2011). Distribution Domestic Policies and Monetary Cooperation in East Asia, ADBI, Working Paper Series, No.332.
• Hamilton-Hart, N. (2013). Monetray Mercantilism in South East Asia. Auckland Department of Political Science, University of Auckland.
• Henning, C.R ve I.M Destler (1988) From Neglect to Activism : American Politics and the 1984 Plaza Accord, Journal of Public Policy 8(3-4) 317-333.
• Hernandez, L ve P. J. Montiel, (2001). “Post-Crisis Excahnge Rate Policy in Five Asian Contries, Filling in the Hollow Middle ? IMF.
• Huang, Y. (2010). Renminbi Policy and Global Currency System, China Center for Economic Research Working Paper Series No. C2010004 Beijing.
• IMF (2000). Annual Reports on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions, Washington, D.C.
• IMF (2017). Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions,Washington D.C.
• IMF(2012). Financial Operations and Transactions, Appendix II.
• Jacques, M. (2012). When China Rules the World, Londra, Penguin Books.
• Jeffrey, A. F. (1999). “No Single Currency is Right for All Countries or at all Times,” Princeton Essays in International Finance 215. International Finance Section. Department of Economics. Princeton University. Princeton NJ.
• Kawai, Masahiro ve Victor Pontines,(2014) The Renminbi and Excahnge Rate Regimes in Asia, ADBI Working Paper Series, N0.484, May. Asian Development Bank.
• Killeen William P, Richard K. Lyons and Michael J. Moore (2006) “Fixed versus Flexible” Journal of International Money and Finance 25, 551‐579.
• Kroeber, A. R. (2017). Çin Ekonomisi, Buzdağı Yayınevi, Ankara.
• Krugman, P. (2010). Bunalım Ekonomisinin Geri Dönüşü ve Küresel Kriz, 6. Basım, Literatür Yayınları, İstanbul.
• Lafrance, R. (2008). China’s Excahnge Rate Policy: A Survey of the Literature, Bank of Canada, Discussion paper, 2008-5.
• Mareno, R. (1989). Exchange Rates and Trade Adjustments in Taiwan and Korea, EEconomic Review Spring, 30-48.
• Martin, M. F.(2017). East Asia’s Foreign Exchange Rate Policies, Congressional Research Service, 7-1500.
• McKinnon, R. (2001). After the Crisis The East Asian Dollar Standard Resurrected: An Interpretation oh High Frequency Exchange Rate Pegging, HKIMR Working Paper No. 04.
• McKinnon, R ve G. Schnabl ( 2009). The Case for Stabilizing China’s Exhange Rate : Setting the Satge for Fiscal Expansion China and World Economy 17(1) 1-32.
• Mikuni, A. ve R.T. Murphy, (2003). Japan’s Policy Trap: Dollars Deflation and Crisis of Japanes Finance Washington D.C Brookings Institutions Press
• Ohno, K. (1999). “Exchange Rate Management in Developing Asia”,ADB,https://www.adb.org/ sites/default/ files/ publication/ 157214/adbi-rp1.pdf
• Park, C.Y., C.S. Chung ve Y. Wang, (2001), Fear of Floating : Korea’s Exchange Rate Policy after the Crisis Journal of Japanese and International Economies 15(2): 225-51
• Rajan, R. S. (2012), “Management of Excahnge Rate Rejimes in Emerging Asia”, Review of Development Finance 2, 53-68.
• Sengupta, R. ve A. S. Gupta, (2015). “Is There a Case for Exchange Rate Coordination in South Asia ?”, MPRA, Asian Development Bank, https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/69131/1/MPRA_paper_69131.pdf
• Shimuzu, K. (2013) “Regional Cooperation for financial and Exchange rate satbility in Asia” Working Paper,FG-7, N.1 Asia Division German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Berlin.
• Simmons, B. (1994). Who Adjusts ? Domestic Sources of Foreign Economic Policy During the Interwar Years, Princeton NJ:Princeton University Press.
• Steinberg, D.A ve V.C. Shih (2012). Interest Group Influence in Authoritarian States the Political Determinants of Chinese Exchange Rate Policy, Comparative Political Studies 45 (11) 1405-34.
• Stubbs, R. (1999). War and Economic Development : Export Oriented Industrilization in East and Southeast Asia, Comparative Politics 31(3) 337-55.
• Stubbs, Richard (2011). The East Asian Developmental State and Great Recession : Evolving Contesting Coalitions” Contemprary Politics 17(2) 151-66.
• Terzi, N.(2017). Küresel Finansta Güncel Konular, Beta. İstanbul.
• Tiwari, R. (2003). Post-Crisis Excahnge Rate Regimes in South East Asia: An Emprical Survey of De Facto Policies, Seminar Paper, University of Hamburg, online available: http://www.rrz.uni-hamburg.de/RRZ/R.Tiwari/papers/exchange-rate.pdf
• Tornell, A. and A. Velasco,(2000) "Fixed versus Flexible Exchange Rates: Which Provides More Fiscal Discipline?" Journal of Monetary Economics 45(2) 399‐436.
• Wang, H. (2014). “The Political Economy of Exchange Rates in East Asia”, Handbook of the International Political Economy of Monetary Relations Edited by Thomas Oatley and W. Kindred Wincoff, Edward Elgar Publishing, UK. 2014.
• World Bank (2003). The East Asian Miracle: Economic Growth and Public Policy Washington D.C. World Bank.