THE RELATIONSHIP INVESTIGATION BETWEEN BITCOIN AND SAFE INVESTMENT PRODUCTS (HAVENS) BY THE MARKOW REGIME SWITCHING MODEL AFTER TRADE WARS

Year 2020, Volume: 7 Issue: 1, 54 - 65, 30.03.2020

Cuneyt Dırıcan

https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2020.1181

Abstract

Purpose- Determination whether there exists a connection or interaction between Bitcoin and safe investment products, which were seen as safe havens, during the trade wars formalized with US President Donald Trump after the 2016 US presidential election is the main of this paper. With the first tariff raise (application) which officially started trade wars, it is desired to understand whether there was a change in the safe investment product preference in the period of the first tariff raise and the US Central Bank's decision to enlarge the balance sheet over the NY FED in September 2019 (after the July 2019 first interest rate cut) due to the liquidity shortage between banks.
Methodology– Using Markow Regime Switching Model, the relationship between Bitcoin, gold, silver, Swiss franc and Japanese yen between these two dates and market regimes (bullish, bearish) were examined. Since the dollar and the euro have already been seen as safe havens as base currency, they are not included in the analysis.
Findings- If bullish, Japanese yen and Swiss franc can affect investors in Bitcoin’s investment decisions, contrary it can be seen that there is not any effect in the bear market regime. In Bitcoin, investor behavior is longer to hold its position in the bear market.
Conclusion- Similar to some studies in the literature, during the period of trade wars, Bitcoin could be evaluated as a profit-making investment instrument and portfolio diversification rather than being a safe investment product (haven) among the regimes.

Keywords

Investment Banking, Cryptocurrencies, Gold, Foreign Exchange, Forex, Financial Markets

TİCARET SAVAŞLARI SONRASINDA BİTCOİN VE GÜVENLİ YATIRIM ÜRÜNLERİ (LİMANLARI) ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİNİN MARKOW REJİM DEĞİŞİM MODELİ İLE İNCELENMESİ

Abstract

Amaç – Bu çalışmanın amacı, 2016 ABD başkanlık seçimi sonrası ABD Başkanı Donald Trump’ın kararı ile uygulamaya geçen ilk gümrük tarife artışı ile resmiyete dökülen ticaret savaşları döneminde, Bitcoin ile güvenli liman olarak görülen yatırım ürünleri arasında bir bağlantı, etkileşim olup olmadığının tespit edilmesidir. İlk gümrük tarife uygulaması ile ABD Merkez Bankası’nın bankalar arasındaki likidite sıkışıklığı nedeni ile (Temmuz 2019 ilk faiz indirimi sonrasında) Eylül 2019’da NY FED üzerinden bilanço büyütme kararı almasına kadar geçen aradaki dönemde güvenli yatırım ürünü tercihinde bir değişiklik olup olmadığı hususu bu çalışmanın amacıdır.
Metodoloji- Markow Rejim Değişim Modeli ile bu iki tarih ve rejimler (boğa, ayı piyasası) arasındaki Bitcoin, altın, gümüş, İsviçre frangı ve Japon yeni ilişkisine bakılmıştır. Dolar ve Euro baz para olarak zaten güvenli liman olduğundan ayrıca analize dahil edilmemiştir.
Bulgular- Boğa piyasasında Yen ve Frangın Bitcoin’de yatırımcıya etki edebileceği, ayı piyasası rejimindeyse Bitcoin adına bir etkinin görülmediği söylenebilir. Bitcoin özelinde ayı piyasasında yatırımcı davranışı daha uzun pozisyon tutma şeklinde olmaktadır.
Sonuç- Ticaret savaşları döneminde, literatürdeki bazı benzer çalışmaların sonucuna uygun şekilde, dalgalanma dönemlerinde rejimler arasında Bitcoin güvenli yatırım ürünü (limanı) olmaktan çok getiri amaçlı ve portföy çeşitlendirme ürünü olarak değerlendirilebilecektir.

Keywords

Yatırım bankacılığı, kripto paralar, altın, döviz, foreks, finansal piyasalar

References

• Alt, R., Beck, R. & Smits, M.T. (2018). FinTech and the transformation of the financial industry. Electron Markets 28, pp.235–243, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12525-018-0310-9 Avcı, M. A., Altay, N. O., & Sulak, H. (2016). Finansal krizlerin öngörüsünde Markov Rejim Değişimi Modeli: gelişmekte olan ülkelere yönelik bir analiz. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. 21(2): 463-475. http://acikerisim.pau.edu.tr/xmlui/handle/11499/28393 Ayittey, FK, Ayittey, MK, Chiwero, NB, Kamasah, JS & Dzuvor, C. (2020). Economic impacts of Wuhan 2019‐nCoV on China and the World. J Med Virol. 2020; pp.1– 3. https://doi.org/10.1002/jmv.25706 Başoğlu, A. (2014). Küresel iklim değişikliğinin ekonomik etkileri”, KTÜ Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, No: 7, 2014, ss.175-196. http://acikerisim.ktu.edu.tr/jspui/bitstream/123456789/213/1/Tam%20Metin.pdf, http://www.ktu.edu.tr/dosyalar/sbedergisi_8fd33.pdf. Baumohl, E. (2018). Are cryptocurrencies connected to Forex? A quantile cross-spectral approach. ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek fürWirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft (Leibniz Information Centrefor Economics), Kiel und Hamburg, 2018, pp.1-18, https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/174884/1/Baumohl%20%282018%29.pdf. Baur, Dirk G. & Hoang, Lai T., A crypto safe haven against Bitcoin. September 21, 2019, pp.1-14. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3457688 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3457688 Bergsli, L. Ø. & Lind, A. F. (2019). Impact of the stock market, major currencies, precious metals and central banks on the volatility of Bitcoin. Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Economics and Management, Department of Industrial Economics and Technology Management. Master’s thesis in Industrial Economics and Technology Management. Supervisor: Peter Molnár. June 2019, pp.1-72. https://ntnuopen.ntnu.no/ntnu-xmlui/handle/11250/2622859 Berke, B., Özcan, B., & Dizdarlar, H. I. (2014). Döviz piyasasının etkinliği: Türkiye için bir analiz. Ege Academic Review, 14(4): 621-636. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Burcu_Berke/publication/298214226_Doviz_Piyasalarinin_Etkinligi_Turkiye_icin_Bir_Analiz/links/56ea6ebd08aec8bc0781a625/Doeviz-Piyasalarinin-Etkinligi-Tuerkiye-icin-Bir-Analiz.pdf. Bottero, M., Minoiu, C. Peydro, JL., Polo, A., Presbitero, A. & Sette, E. (2019). Expansionary yet different: credit supply and real effects of negative interest rate policy. December 2019. CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP14233, pp.1-59. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3518571 or https://www.barcelonagse.eu/sites/default/files/working_paper_pdfs/1090.pdf Bouoiyour, J., Selmi, R. & Wohar, M.(2019). Bitcoin: competitor or complement to gold?. Economics Bulletin, 2019, 39 (1): pp.186-191. hal-01994187, Post-Print, HAL, https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01994187. Burggraf, T. (2020). Bitcoin and global political uncertainty - Evidence from the U.S. election cycle. January 6, 2020, pp.1-12. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3514522 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3514522 Canöz, İ. (2020). The impact of US monetary growth on Bitcoin trading volume in the current economic uncertainty. In Handbook of Research on Decision-Making Techniques in Financial Marketing, pp. 493-509. IGI Global. Cheong, C. (2019), "Cryptocurrencies vs global foreign exchange risk". Journal of Risk Finance, Vol. 20 No. 4, pp.330-351. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/JRF-11-2018-0178. Chohan, U. W., (2018). Cryptocurrencies as asset-backed instruments: The Venezuelan Petro. February 7, 2018. pp.1-9. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3119606 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3119606 De Cnijf, C. (2019). Is gold still a safe haven? Doctoral dissertation, Ghent University, Master of Science in Business Administration, Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Koen Inghelbrecht, June 2019, pp.1-49. https://lib.ugent.be/fulltxt/RUG01/002/784/019/RUG01-002784019_2019_0001_AC.pdf Dirican, C. & Canöz, İ. (2017). The cointegration relationship between Bitcoin prices and major world stock indices: an analysis with ARDL Model approach. Journal of Economics Finance and Accounting, 4 (4): 377-392. DOI: 10.17261/Pressacademia.2017.748. Engel, C. (1994). Can the Markov switching model forecast exchange rates?. Journal of international economics, 36(1-2): 151-165. https://www.ssc.wisc.edu/~cengel/PublishedPapers/JIEMarkov.pdf. Erdoğdu, A. (2017). The most significant factors influencing the price of gold: an empirical analysis of the US market. Economics World, Sep.-Oct. 2017, Vol. 5, No. 5, pp.399-406. DOI: 10.17265/2328-7144/2017.05.002. Evans, O. (2019). The effects of US-China trade war and Trumponomics. MPRA Paper 93682, University Library of Munich, Germany, Forum Scientiae Oeconomia, 7(1): 47-55, https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/93682/1/MPRA_paper_93682.pdf Evci, S., Şak, N. & Karaağaç, G.A. (2016). Altın fiyatlarındaki değişimin Markov Rejim Değişim Modelleriyle incelenmesi. Business and Economics Research Journal, Volume 7, No 42016, pp. 67-77, ISSN: 1309-2448, DOI:10.20409/berj.2016422339 Garcia, R. (1998). Asymptotic Null Distribution of the Likelihood Ratio Test in Markov Switching Models. International Economic Review. pp.763-788. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2527399 Gözgör, G., Tiwari, A., Demir, E. & Akron, S. (2019). The relationship between Bitcoin returns and trade policy uncertainty, Finance Research Letters, 29, issue C, p. 75-82, https://econpapers.repec.org/article/eeefinlet/v_3a29_3ay_3a2019_3ai_3ac_3ap_3a75-82.htm & http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612318308596 Günen, E. (2019). Türkiye’nin resmi kripto parası için hedef: 2020. Fintechtime.com Web Haber Sitesi, 09/11/2019, http://fintechtime.com/tr/2019/11/turkiyenin-resmi-kripto-parasi-icin-hedef-2020/ Hamilton, J. D. (1988). Rational-Expectations econometric analysis of changes in regime: an investigation of the term structure of interest rates. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. 12(2-3): 385-423. http://www.bu.edu/econ/files/2014/01/Hamilton-Interest-Rates.pdf Hamilton, J. D. (1989). A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary time series and the business cycle. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 57(2): 357-384. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1912559 Harihara Sudhan, R. I. & Subramanian, S. (2018). How good is the Bitcoin as an alternative asset for hedging. International Journal of Pure and Applied Mathematics, Volume 119, No. 17, September 27, 2018, pp.497-508 ISSN: 1314-3395. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3256074. Investing.com (Anonim). Haber ve veri sitesi. İlgili yatırım ürünleri veri sayfaları. https://tr.investing.com/. ET: 2019. Jana, R. K., & Das, D. (2020). Did Bitcoin act as an antidote to the Chinese equity market and booster to Altcoins during the Novel Coronavirus outbreak?, February 26, 2020, pp.1-28. Available at SSRN . https://ssrn.com/abstract=3544794 Khan, N.I. (2019). Global trade war and its impact on trade and growth: war between USA, China and EU. International Journal of Innovative Technology and Exploring Engineering (IJITEE), ISSN:2278-3075, Volume-8 Issue-8 June, 2019, pp.934-942. https://www.ijitee.org/wp-content/uploads/papers/v8i8/G5629058719.pdf. Kodama, O., Pichl, L., & Kaizoji, T. (2017). Regime change and trend prediction for Bitcoin time series data. In CBU International Conference Proceedings, Vol. 5, pp. 384-388, September 2017. https://ojs.journals.cz/index.php/CBUIC/article/view/954. Koutmos, D. (2019). Market risk and Bitcoin returns. Annals of Operations Research, pp.1-25. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-019-03255-6 Koy, A. (2017). Spot ve vadeli piyasa ilişkilerine Markov Rejim Değişim Modelleri yaklaşımı. Bankacılar Dergisi, Sayı 101, 24 Haziran 2017, ss.70-87. https://www.tbb.org.tr/Content/Upload/dergiler/dosya/76/tbb101.new.pdf Kula V., & Baykut, E. (2017). BIST Banka Endeksi’nin (XBANK) volatilite yapısının Markov Rejim Değişimi GARCH Modeli (MSGARCH) ile analizi. Bankacılar Dergisi, Sayı 102, 2017, ss.89-110. https://www.tbb.org.tr/Content/Upload/dergiler/dosya/77/ Bankacilar_Dergisi_102.Sayi.pdf. Liu, T. & Woo, W.T. (2018). Understanding the U.S.-China trade war. China Economic Journal, 11(3): 319-340, DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2018.1516256. Mita, M., Ito, K., Ohsawa, S., & Tanaka, H. (2019). What is Stablecoin?: A Survey on Price Stabilization Mechanisms for Decentralized Payment Systems. arXiv preprint arXiv:1906.06037, 14 June 2019, pp.1-7. https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1906/1906.06037.pdf NYTimes.com. (2020). Asian Markets Seesaw, Bonds Rise as Coronavirus Fears Linger. The NYTimes Haber Web Sitesi, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/28/business/stock-market-today-coronavirus.html Noland, M. (2018). US trade policy in the Trump administration. Asian Economic Policy Review, 13: 262-278. DOI:10.1111/aepr.12226 Palacıoğlu, T. (2018). ABD “Dünya”ya karşı!; Ticaret savaşları. İTO Bilgiyi Ticarileştirme ve Araştırma Vakfı, İstanbul Düşünce Akademisi, YAYIN NO: 2018, 11 Ağustos 2018, ss.1-12, https://www.istka.org.tr/media/131174/abd-dünyaya-karşı-ticaret-savaşları.pdf Plakandaras, Bouri & Gupta. (2019). Forecasting Bitcoin returns: is there a role for the U.S. – China trade war?. Working Papers 201980, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, pp.1-17. http://www.up.ac.za/media/shared/61/WP/wp_2019_80.zp183111.pdf. Rechard, K.L. (2019). Essays on monetary policy and Bitcoin financial economics. May 2019, pp.1-74. All Dissertations. 2367. https://tigerprints.clemson.edu/all_dissertations/2367 Steinbock, D. (2018). U.S.-China trade war and its global impacts, China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies, 2018, 04(04): 515-542. https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/pdf/10.1142/S2377740018500318. Virk, N. (2019). Bitcoin and integration patterns in the Forex market. January 1, 2019, pp.1-15. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3397657 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3397657. Wilner, D. P. (2018). LIBOR: London’s interbank bridge is falling down. NY Business Law Journal, Winter 2018, Vol:22, No:2, pp. 64-79, https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5981d17d197aeacdba983f19/t/5c45dfef21c67cc78dc4b659/1548083186800/BusLawJournal-Winter18.pdf#page=66