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BANKA KREDİLERİ VE KİRA-FİYAT İLİŞKİSİ: KREDİLERİN EKONOMİDEKİ ROLLERİ ÜZERİNE BİR YORUM VE YAPISAL KIRILMALI ZAMAN SERİLERİ ANALİZİ

Year 2020, Volume: 7 Issue: 3, 214 - 222, 30.09.2020

Esat Dasdemır

https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2020.1289

Abstract

Amaç- Bu çalışma faiz ve kredi kullanımının kiraları olumsuz yönde etkileyeceğini, ancak fiyatları olumlu etkileyeceğini savunmaktadır. Çalışma; faiz oranlarının bu iki değişkene etkisi test etmek, açıklamak, yorumlamak ve uygun politika önerisi sunmayı amaçlamaktadır.
Yöntem- Teori, ABD konut piyasası üzerinde 2005Ç1-2020Ç1 dönemleri arasında yapısal kırılmalı zaman serileri analizi ile test edilmiştir. En küçük kareler ve Newey-West tahmincileri kullanılmış, yorumlanan çıktı ise Newey-West tahmincisi olmuştur.
Bulgular- Ulaşılan sonuçlara göre 2005Ç1-2009Ç1 ve 2011Ç4-2020Ç1 dönemi için mortgage faiz oranlarındaki artış konut kira/fiyat oranını azaltmaktadır. Modelde 2008 Küresel Finansal Krizin etkilerinin görüldüğü 2009Ç2-2011Ç3 dönemi için ise bu ilişkinin doğrusal olduğu görülmektedir.
Sonuç- Tahmin edilen model sonucu kredi kullanımının diğer ekonomik unsurlara etkisi değerlendirilmiştir. Kredi kullanımı ve faiz oranlarının, fiyat ve kiralar üzerinde farklı etkilere neden olmaktadır. Bu durum kiralama ve satın alma arasındaki ikame ilişkisi ile açıklanmıştır. Çalışma, faiz oranlarının kiralar ve fiyatları dengeleyecek bir araç olarak değerlendirilmesi gerektiğini belirtmektedir. Çalışma faiz oranları ve banka kredileri üzerine atfedilen bu denetim gücünün doğruluğunu ortaya koyarak literatüre katkı yapmaktadır.

Keywords

Kredi kullanımı kiralama ve satın alma ilişkisi kira-fiyat ilişkisi finansal sistem faiz oranının fiyat ve kiralara etkisi

References

  • Alioğulları, Z. H., Başkaya, Y., Bulut, Y., & Kılınç, M. (2015). Türkiye’de Tüketici ve Ticari Kredilerin Cari Açikla Ilişkisi (No. 15/19). Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:tcb:econot:1519
  • Alkan, U. (2016). Finans Sektöründen Reel Sektöre Parasal Aktarım Mekanizması. Etkin.
  • Arslan, Y., & Kanık, B. (2012). ABD Kira Enflasyonu ve Konut Fiyat Dinamikleri (No. 12/03). Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:tcb:econot:1203
  • Bagehot, W. (1873). Lombard Street: A Description of the Money Market. E. P. Dutton and Company. https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hay:hetboo:bagehot1873
  • Balkaş, K. (2004). Kredi Kavramı ve Sektör Kredilerine Göre Türkiye’deki Belli Başlı Sektörlerin Analizi [Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Ankara Üniversitesi]. https://dspace.ankara.edu.tr/xmlui/handle/20.500.12575/27828
  • Bilgin, M. H., & Kartal, F. (2009). Türkiye’de Enflasyon ve Bankacılık Sektörü Kredileri: 2002-2008 Dönemi Üzerine Bir İnceleme. Maliye ve Finans Yazıları, 1(85), 65–78.
  • Breusch, T. S. (1978). Testıng For Autocorrelatıon In Dynamıc Lınear Models. Australian Economic Papers, 17(31), 334–355. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8454.1978.tb00635.x
  • Breusch, T. S., & Pagan, A. R. (1979). A Simple Test for Heteroscedasticity and Random Coefficient Variation. Econometrica, 47(5), 1287–1294. JSTOR. https://doi.org/10.2307/1911963
  • Çeştepe, H., & Yildirim, E. (2016). Türkiye’de Finansal Gelişme ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 12(12), 12–26.
  • Ceylan, S., & Durkaya, M. (2010). Türkiye’de Kredi Kullanımı - Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 24(2), 21–35.
  • Daşdemir, E. N. (2017). The Effects of Debt on Debtors and The Economy: An Observational Test on Consumer Credit and Wages. İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi, 5(1), 58–72.
  • Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427–431. JSTOR. https://doi.org/10.2307/2286348
  • Donald W. K. Andrews. (1993). Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change With Unknown Change Point. Econometrica, 61(4), 821–856. JSTOR. https://doi.org/10.2307/2951764
  • Durbin, J., & Watson, G. S. (1950). Testing for Serial Correlation in Least Squares Regression: I. Biometrika, 37(3/4), 409–428. JSTOR. https://doi.org/10.2307/2332391
  • Godfrey, L. G. (1978). Testing Against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models when the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables. Econometrica, 46(6), 1293–1301. JSTOR. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913829
  • Jarque, C. M., & Bera, A. K. (1987). A Test for Normality of Observations and Regression Residuals. International Statistical Review / Revue Internationale de Statistique, 55(2), 163–172. JSTOR. https://doi.org/10.2307/1403192
  • Kar, M., & Pentecost, E. J. (2000, December). Financial Development and Economic Growth in Turkey: Further Evidence on the Causality Issue. Department of Economics. Economic Research.
  • Kaya, A., Gülhan, Ü., & Güngör, B. (2013). Türkiye Ekonomisinde Finans Sektörü Ve Reel Sektör Etkileşimi. Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi (AKAD), 5(8), 2–15. https://doi.org/10.20990/aacd.45324
  • King, R. G., & Levine, R. (1993). Finance, entrepreneurship and growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 32(3), 513–542. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(93)90028-E
  • Monetary Data: FRED St. Louis Fed. (2020). Federal Reserve Economic Data St. Louis Fed. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOGMBASE
  • Newey, W. K., & West, K. D. (1987). A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix. Econometrica, 55(3), 703–708. JSTOR. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913610
  • Öğünç, F., & Sarikaya, Ç. (2015). Enflasyonu Aciklamada Kredilerin Bilgi Degeri (No. 15/12; Issue 1512). Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. https://ideas.repec.org/p/tcb/econot/1512.html
  • Patrick, H. T. (1966). Financial Development and Economic Growth in Underdeveloped Countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 14(2), 174–189. JSTOR.
  • Robinson, J. (1952). The Rate of Interest: And Other Essays. Macmillan. https://books.google.com.tr/books?id=NFAPAQAAIAAJ
  • Schumpeter, J. (1911). The Theory of Economic Development. Cambridge.
  • Tobin, J. (1969). A General Equilibrium Approach To Monetary Theory. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1(1), 15–29. JSTOR. https://doi.org/10.2307/1991374
  • White, H. (1980). A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity. Econometrica, 48(4), 817–838. JSTOR. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912934

BANK CREDITS AND RENT-PRICE RELATION: AN INTERPRETATION ON THE ROLES OF CREDITS IN ECONOMY AND TIME SERIES ANALYSIS WITH STRUCTURAL BREAK

Year 2020, Volume: 7 Issue: 3, 214 - 222, 30.09.2020

Esat Dasdemır

https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2020.1289

Abstract

Purpose- This study argues that interest rate and credit usage will affect rents negatively but prices positively. The study; aims to test, explain, interpret the effect of interest rates on these two variables and offer appropriate policy recommendations.
Methodology- Theory tested on the US housing market with the structural break time series analysis between 2005Q1-2020Q1. Least squares (LS) and Newey-West estimators used, and the interpreted output was the Newey-West estimator.
Findings- According to the results reached, the increase in mortgage interest rates for the 2005Q1-2009Q1 and 2011Q4-2020Q1 period decreases the housing rent / price ratio. For the 2009Q2-2011Q3 period, in which the effects of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis are observed in the model, this relationship is observed positively.
Conclusion- As a result of the predicted model, the impact of credit usage on other economic factors evaluated. Credit usage and interest rates have different effects on prices and rents. This is explained by the substitution relationship between rental and purchase. The study states that interest rates should be evaluated as a tool to balance rents and prices. The study contributes to the literature by revealing the accuracy of this supervisory power attributed to interest rates and bank loans.

Keywords

Credit usage lease and purchase relationship rent-price relationship financial system effect of interest rate on rent and price

References

  • Alioğulları, Z. H., Başkaya, Y., Bulut, Y., & Kılınç, M. (2015). Türkiye’de Tüketici ve Ticari Kredilerin Cari Açikla Ilişkisi (No. 15/19). Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:tcb:econot:1519
  • Alkan, U. (2016). Finans Sektöründen Reel Sektöre Parasal Aktarım Mekanizması. Etkin.
  • Arslan, Y., & Kanık, B. (2012). ABD Kira Enflasyonu ve Konut Fiyat Dinamikleri (No. 12/03). Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:tcb:econot:1203
  • Bagehot, W. (1873). Lombard Street: A Description of the Money Market. E. P. Dutton and Company. https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hay:hetboo:bagehot1873
  • Balkaş, K. (2004). Kredi Kavramı ve Sektör Kredilerine Göre Türkiye’deki Belli Başlı Sektörlerin Analizi [Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Ankara Üniversitesi]. https://dspace.ankara.edu.tr/xmlui/handle/20.500.12575/27828
  • Bilgin, M. H., & Kartal, F. (2009). Türkiye’de Enflasyon ve Bankacılık Sektörü Kredileri: 2002-2008 Dönemi Üzerine Bir İnceleme. Maliye ve Finans Yazıları, 1(85), 65–78.
  • Breusch, T. S. (1978). Testıng For Autocorrelatıon In Dynamıc Lınear Models. Australian Economic Papers, 17(31), 334–355. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8454.1978.tb00635.x
  • Breusch, T. S., & Pagan, A. R. (1979). A Simple Test for Heteroscedasticity and Random Coefficient Variation. Econometrica, 47(5), 1287–1294. JSTOR. https://doi.org/10.2307/1911963
  • Çeştepe, H., & Yildirim, E. (2016). Türkiye’de Finansal Gelişme ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 12(12), 12–26.
  • Ceylan, S., & Durkaya, M. (2010). Türkiye’de Kredi Kullanımı - Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 24(2), 21–35.
  • Daşdemir, E. N. (2017). The Effects of Debt on Debtors and The Economy: An Observational Test on Consumer Credit and Wages. İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi, 5(1), 58–72.
  • Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427–431. JSTOR. https://doi.org/10.2307/2286348
  • Donald W. K. Andrews. (1993). Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change With Unknown Change Point. Econometrica, 61(4), 821–856. JSTOR. https://doi.org/10.2307/2951764
  • Durbin, J., & Watson, G. S. (1950). Testing for Serial Correlation in Least Squares Regression: I. Biometrika, 37(3/4), 409–428. JSTOR. https://doi.org/10.2307/2332391
  • Godfrey, L. G. (1978). Testing Against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models when the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables. Econometrica, 46(6), 1293–1301. JSTOR. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913829
  • Jarque, C. M., & Bera, A. K. (1987). A Test for Normality of Observations and Regression Residuals. International Statistical Review / Revue Internationale de Statistique, 55(2), 163–172. JSTOR. https://doi.org/10.2307/1403192
  • Kar, M., & Pentecost, E. J. (2000, December). Financial Development and Economic Growth in Turkey: Further Evidence on the Causality Issue. Department of Economics. Economic Research.
  • Kaya, A., Gülhan, Ü., & Güngör, B. (2013). Türkiye Ekonomisinde Finans Sektörü Ve Reel Sektör Etkileşimi. Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi (AKAD), 5(8), 2–15. https://doi.org/10.20990/aacd.45324
  • King, R. G., & Levine, R. (1993). Finance, entrepreneurship and growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 32(3), 513–542. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(93)90028-E
  • Monetary Data: FRED St. Louis Fed. (2020). Federal Reserve Economic Data St. Louis Fed. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOGMBASE
  • Newey, W. K., & West, K. D. (1987). A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix. Econometrica, 55(3), 703–708. JSTOR. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913610
  • Öğünç, F., & Sarikaya, Ç. (2015). Enflasyonu Aciklamada Kredilerin Bilgi Degeri (No. 15/12; Issue 1512). Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. https://ideas.repec.org/p/tcb/econot/1512.html
  • Patrick, H. T. (1966). Financial Development and Economic Growth in Underdeveloped Countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 14(2), 174–189. JSTOR.
  • Robinson, J. (1952). The Rate of Interest: And Other Essays. Macmillan. https://books.google.com.tr/books?id=NFAPAQAAIAAJ
  • Schumpeter, J. (1911). The Theory of Economic Development. Cambridge.
  • Tobin, J. (1969). A General Equilibrium Approach To Monetary Theory. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1(1), 15–29. JSTOR. https://doi.org/10.2307/1991374
  • White, H. (1980). A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity. Econometrica, 48(4), 817–838. JSTOR. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912934
There are 27 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Finance, Business Administration
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Esat Dasdemır 0000-0001-8950-2020

Publication Date September 30, 2020
Published in Issue Year 2020 Volume: 7 Issue: 3

Cite

APA Dasdemır, E. (2020). BANKA KREDİLERİ VE KİRA-FİYAT İLİŞKİSİ: KREDİLERİN EKONOMİDEKİ ROLLERİ ÜZERİNE BİR YORUM VE YAPISAL KIRILMALI ZAMAN SERİLERİ ANALİZİ. Journal of Economics Finance and Accounting, 7(3), 214-222. https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2020.1289

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