THE SUSPICION OF MANIPULATION IN BITCOIN RETURNS: AN INVESTIGATION WITH BENFORD’S LAW

Year 2021, Volume: 8 Issue: 2, 109 - 116, 30.06.2021

Omer Iskenderoglu Nazif Ayyıldız

https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2021.1396

Abstract

Purpose- Bitcoin is a blockchain-based digital currency that can be generated via data mining. Several complex computational methods along with random processes have been utilized in the production of that currency. Nonetheless, it is an important research question whether this process, which have been taking place in a entirely digital platform, involves manipulation. Accordingly, the amount of Bitcoin in circulation would involve manipulation as much as the Bitcoin price and returns do.
Methodology- Related tests are performed to detect compliance with Benford’s Law in the analyses conducted on the issue. Distribution frequency of the digits can be determined by Benford’s Law in order to determine whether the random digital database is manipulated. In order to detect any possible manipulation in Bitcoin returns, the Chi-Square test is performed
Findings- With the daily Bitcoin price data obtained over the period between 02.02.2012 - 10.02.2020 its found out that Bİtcoin prices comply with Benford’s Law reference distribution.
Conclusion- According to the results of the analysis, it is concluded that the Bitcoin returns comply with Benford’s Law. Therefore, there is no possible manipulation on the Bitcoin returns throughout the study period.

Keywords

Benford’s Law, Bitcoin, Detection of Fraud, Digital Analysis, Manipulation

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