Data-Driven Investment and Innovation Decisions for Entrepreneurs

Abstract

Purpose: This study aims to investigate the effect of financier selection options over the optimal actions of entrepreneurs in a Markov modulated setting. Methodology: The problem in the paper is modeled by Markov decision process and solved using dynamic programming equation. The parameters are estimated using the inference from OECD statistics and the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor survey. Findings: It was found that survival first entrepreneurs are prudent in taking growth or innovative actions. However, they become more aggressive if they also prioritize expected wealth, or they are financed by experienced venture capitals. Practical Implications: The study reveals the importance of different financing schemes for entrepreneurs such as venture capital or business angels. Particularly by the guidance of experienced financiers, the early phase entrepreneurs can grow faster and safer. Originality: In this study, we model both the financier selection and policy decisions of entrepreneur firms with different objective functions using a 2-state Markov process in a data-driven approach.

Keywords

• Markov Decision Process
• Entrepreneurial Finance
• Innovative Decision Making
• Survival First

Girişimciler için Veriye Bağlı Yatırım ve Yenilik Kararları

Abstract

Amaç: Bu çalışmada, Markov sürecine bağlı bir ortamda yatırımcı seçim probleminin girişimci karar ve stratejilerine etkisinin incelenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Yöntem: Makalede incelenmiş olan problem Markov karar süreci kullanılarak modellenmiş ve dinamik programlama yöntemi kullanılarak çözülmüştür. Problem parametrelerinin belirlenmesi için OECD istatistikleri ve Küresel Girişimcilik Araştırması sonuçları kullanılmıştır. Bulgular: Öncelikli olarak firmalarının varlığını sürdürmesini amaç edinmiş olan girişimcilerin, büyümeye ya da inovasyona yönelik karar almada daha çekingen davranabilecekleri bulunmuştur. Fakat şirket büyüklüğünü de göz önüne alan bir amaç fonksiyonları olması durumunda, ya da deneyimli bir risk sermayesi yatırım şirketi ile iş birliği yapmaları halinde daha cesur kararlar alabildikleri ve firmalarının daha değerli olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır. Sonuç ve Öneriler: Bu çalışma girişimciler için melek yatırımcılar ya da risk sermayeleri gibi farklı yatırımcı alternatiflerinin önemini göstermiştir. Özellikle deneyimli yatırımcıların yol göstericiliği ile erken dönem girişimcileri daha hızlı ve güvenli büyüme şansı elde edebilirler. Özgün Değer: Bu çalışmada farklı tipteki girişimciler için hem finansör seçimi hem de karar süreçleri 2 durumlu Markov modelleri yardımıyla bir arada modellenmiştir. Bu yöntem girişimcilik literatürü için yenilikçidir. Ayrıca model parametreleri farklı araştırma verileri kullanılarak gerçek hayat değerlerine daha uyumlu olacak şekilde belirlenmiştir.

Keywords

• Markov Karar Süreci
• Girişimci Finansı
• Yenilikçi Karar Verme
• Yaşam Önceliği

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