Evrimsel Kararlı Portföy Kuralı: Gereksinimler ve Engeller

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 4 Sayı: 2, 51 - 77, 29.12.2024

Aras Yolusever

Öz

Bu çalışma, hisse senedi piyasalarında kullanılan yatırım stratejilerini evrimsel oyun teorisi perspektifinden incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Öncelikli amaç, evrimsel istikrarlı bir dengeye ulaşmak için gerekli koşulları araştırmak ve getiri dışı etkilerin önemini ortaya koymaktır. Getiri ağırlıklı istikrarlı bir yatırım stratejisine ulaşmak için, yatırımcıların getiri eşitsizliklerine karşı temkinli davranırken kâra odaklanmaları gerekmektedir. Bununla birlikte, bu dengeye ulaşmak için insanların tamamen rasyonel davranması gerekir, ancak sosyal varlıklar olarak insanlar hata yapabilir. Bu nedenle evrim teorisi, duygusal durumları ve karşılıklılık, fedakarlık ve bencillik gibi rasyonel olmayan davranışları modellemek için idealdir. İnsanların yatırım kararları verirken birbirleriyle nasıl etkileşime girdiklerini modellemek için evrimsel oyun teorisini kullanılmıştır. İnsanların stratejilerini nasıl değiştirdiklerine odaklanılmıştır. Analizimiz ayrıca sinyal mekanizmalarını kullanarak etkileşimli olmayan strateji değişikliklerine de odaklandı. Düşük getirili stratejilerin getiri dışı etkiler, konformizm ve insana özgü duygular nedeniyle uzun süre devam edebileceği sonucuna varılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Evrimsel Oyun Teorisi, Evrimsel Kararlı Denge, Replikatör Dinamiği, Konformizm, Yatırım Stratejileri

Evolutionary Stable Portfolio Rule: Requirements and Obstacles

Öz

The present study aims to investigate the investment strategies used in stock markets from an evolutionary game theory perspective. Our primary objective is to identify the necessary conditions for achieving an evolutionarily stable equilibrium and to highlight the importance of non-return effects. To achieve a yield-dominant stable investment strategy, investors must focus on profits while remaining cautious of yield disparities. However, to achieve this equilibrium, people must act completely rationally, but as social beings, humans can make mistakes. Therefore, evolutionary theory is ideal for modeling emotional states and non-rational behaviors, such as reciprocity, altruism, and selfishness. We used evolutionary game theory to model how people interact with each other when making investment decisions. Our focus was on how individuals adapt and change their strategies. Our analysis also concentrated on non-interactive strategy changes using signaling mechanisms. We conclude that low-return strategies can persist for extended periods due to non-return effects, conformism, and human-specific emotions.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Evolutionary Game Theory, Evolutionary Stable Equilibrium, Replicator Dynamics, Conformism, Investment Strategies

Kaynakça

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