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HIRHAM5 Kullanılarak Akdeniz Havzası’nın Gelecek Klimatolojisi ve Ekstrem Olaylarındaki Değişikliklerin Projeksiyonları

Year 2022, Volume: 34 Issue: 1, 167 - 189, 30.03.2022
https://doi.org/10.7240/jeps.993459

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, 1971–2000 referans dönemine göre 2011-2100 gelecek dönemi için Türkiye'nin de dahil olduğu Akdeniz Havzası üzerinde sıcaklık ve yağış klimatolojilerinde öngörülen değişiklikler, EC-EARTH, HadGEM2-ES ve NorESM1-M olmak üzere üç küresel iklim modeli çıktılarıyla koşulan HIRHAM5 bölgesel iklim modeli benzetimleri kullanılarak değerlendirildi. Ekstrem iklim indekslerini hesaplamak için sıcaklık ve yağış değişkenlerinin günlük ortalamaları kullanıldı. Sonuçlara göre, artan ışınımsal zorlamayla birlikte yüzyıl boyunca sıcaklık ve yağış temelli ekstrem iklim indekslerinin daha şiddetlenmesi beklenmektedir. Minimum sıcaklıklardaki artış, iklim değişikliğinin en önemli sıcak noktalarından biri olması beklenen Akdeniz Havzası'nın kuzey kesiminde daha belirginken, maksimum sıcaklıklardaki artış ise karalar üzerinde ılımlıdır. Art arda gelen kurak günlerin sayısındaki artışla birlikte toplam yağışlı gün sayılarında azalma beklenmektedir. Bu nedenle, Akdeniz Havzası ve Türkiye üzerindeki mevcut iklim koşullarının daha yoğun ve daha sıcak olması öngörülmektedir.

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Projections of Future Change of Climatology and Extreme Events in the Mediterranean Basin, by the HIRHAM5

Year 2022, Volume: 34 Issue: 1, 167 - 189, 30.03.2022
https://doi.org/10.7240/jeps.993459

Abstract

In this work, change of temperature and precipitation climatology over Mediterranean Basin including Turkey were investigated using HIRHAM5 driven by global climate models such as EC-EARTH, HadGEM2-ES and NorESM1-M for 2011-2100 compared to 1971-2000. Daily mean temperature and precipitation fields are used to compute extreme indices. According to the results, severity of temperature- and precipitation-based indices will be expected to increase throughout the century with increasing radiative forcing. Minimum of minimum temperatures will increase more pronounced over northern Mediterranean, which is referred to climate change hot spots, whereas increase in maximum of maximum temperatures are moderate over land areas. Decrease in total wet-day precipitation is expected while number dry days is expected to increase. Therefore, Mediterranean Basin and Turkey will have warmer and drier conditions compared to present climate conditions.

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  • Sillmann, J., Kharin, V. V., Zwiers, F. W., Zhang, X., and Bronaugh, D. (2013). Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Part 2. Future climate projections. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118(6), 2473-2493.
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  • Zittis, G., Hadjinicolaou, P., Fnais, M., and Lelieveld, J. (2016). Projected changes in heat wave characteristics in the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East. Regional environmental change, 16(7), 1863-1876.
  • Gao, X., and Giorgi, F. (2008). Increased aridity in the Mediterranean region under greenhouse gas forcing estimated from high resolution simulations with a regional climate model. Global and Planetary Change, 62(3-4), 195-209.
  • Önol, B., and HM Semazzi, F. (2009). Regionalization of climate change simulations over the Eastern Mediterranean. Journal of Climate, 22(8), 1944-1961.
  • Bozkurt, D., and Sen, O. L. (2011). Precipitation in the Anatolian Peninsula: sensitivity to increased SSTs in the surrounding seas. Climate dynamics, 36(3-4), 711-726.
  • Bozkurt, D., Turuncoglu, U., Sen, O. L., Onol, B., and Dalfes, H. N. (2012). Downscaled simulations of the ECHAM5, CCSM3 and HadCM3 global models for the eastern Mediterranean–Black Sea region: evaluation of the reference period. Climate dynamics, 39(1), 207-225.
  • Önol, B. (2012). Effects of coastal topography on climate: high-resolution simulation with a regional climate model. Climate Research, 52, 159-174.
  • Ozturk, T., Altinsoy, H., Türkeș, M., and Kurnaz, M. L. (2012). Simulation of temperature and precipitation climatology for the Central Asia CORDEX domain using RegCM 4.0. Climate Research, 52, 63-76.
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There are 61 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Engineering
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Tuğba Öztürk 0000-0001-8598-8596

Publication Date March 30, 2022
Published in Issue Year 2022 Volume: 34 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Öztürk, T. (2022). Projections of Future Change of Climatology and Extreme Events in the Mediterranean Basin, by the HIRHAM5. International Journal of Advances in Engineering and Pure Sciences, 34(1), 167-189. https://doi.org/10.7240/jeps.993459
AMA Öztürk T. Projections of Future Change of Climatology and Extreme Events in the Mediterranean Basin, by the HIRHAM5. JEPS. March 2022;34(1):167-189. doi:10.7240/jeps.993459
Chicago Öztürk, Tuğba. “Projections of Future Change of Climatology and Extreme Events in the Mediterranean Basin, by the HIRHAM5”. International Journal of Advances in Engineering and Pure Sciences 34, no. 1 (March 2022): 167-89. https://doi.org/10.7240/jeps.993459.
EndNote Öztürk T (March 1, 2022) Projections of Future Change of Climatology and Extreme Events in the Mediterranean Basin, by the HIRHAM5. International Journal of Advances in Engineering and Pure Sciences 34 1 167–189.
IEEE T. Öztürk, “Projections of Future Change of Climatology and Extreme Events in the Mediterranean Basin, by the HIRHAM5”, JEPS, vol. 34, no. 1, pp. 167–189, 2022, doi: 10.7240/jeps.993459.
ISNAD Öztürk, Tuğba. “Projections of Future Change of Climatology and Extreme Events in the Mediterranean Basin, by the HIRHAM5”. International Journal of Advances in Engineering and Pure Sciences 34/1 (March 2022), 167-189. https://doi.org/10.7240/jeps.993459.
JAMA Öztürk T. Projections of Future Change of Climatology and Extreme Events in the Mediterranean Basin, by the HIRHAM5. JEPS. 2022;34:167–189.
MLA Öztürk, Tuğba. “Projections of Future Change of Climatology and Extreme Events in the Mediterranean Basin, by the HIRHAM5”. International Journal of Advances in Engineering and Pure Sciences, vol. 34, no. 1, 2022, pp. 167-89, doi:10.7240/jeps.993459.
Vancouver Öztürk T. Projections of Future Change of Climatology and Extreme Events in the Mediterranean Basin, by the HIRHAM5. JEPS. 2022;34(1):167-89.