Research Article
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Year 2019, , 115 - 124, 31.12.2019
https://doi.org/10.30931/jetas.599517

Abstract

References

  • [1] GSMA. The Mobile Economy 2018 Report. https://www.gsma.com/mobileeconomy/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/The-Mobile-Economy-Global-2018.pdf
  • [2] GSMA. The Mobile Economy Europe 2018 Report. https://www.gsmaintelligence.com/research/?file=884c77f3bc0a405b2d5fd356689be340&download
  • [3] World Bank: https://databank.worldbank.org/data/source/world-development-indicators#
  • [4] Electronic and Postal Communications Authority (EPCA) in Albania, Annual report 2017 (AKEP: Raporti Vjetor i Veprimtarisë 2017).
  • [5] Meade, N., Islam, T., “Modelling and forecasting the diffusion of innovation–A 25-year review”, International Journal of forecasting 22(3) (2006) : 519-545.
  • [6] Rouvinen, P., “Diffusion of digital mobile telephony: Are developing countries different?”, Telecommunications Policy 30(1) (2006) : 46-63.
  • [7] Wu, F.S., Chu, W.L., “Diffusion models of mobile telephony”, Journal of Business Research 63(5) (2010) : 497-501.
  • [8] Meade, N., Islam, T., “Forecasting the diffusion of innovations: Implications for time series extrapolation”, In Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners, J. S. Armstrong, Ed. Norwell, MA: Kluwer, 2001.
  • [9] Gruber, H., Verboven, F., “The Diffusion of mobile telecommunications Services in The European Union”, European Economic Review 45(3) (2001) : 577-588.
  • [10] Botelho, A., Pinto, L., “The diffusion of cellular phones in Portugal”, Telecommunications Policy 28 (2004) : 427-437.
  • [11] Frank, L.D., “An analysis of the effect of the economic situation on modelling and forecasting the diffusion of wireless communications in Finland”, Technological Forecasting & Social Change 71 (2004) : 391-403.
  • [12] Pereira, P., Pernias-Cerrillo, J., “The diffusion of cellular telephony in Portugal before UMTS: A time series approach”, Working paper no 08, Portuguese Competition Authority (2005).
  • [13] Lee, M., Cho, Y., “The diffusion of mobile telecommunications services in Korea”, Applied Economics Letters 14(7) (2007) : 477-481.
  • [14] Michalakelis, C., Varoutas, D., Sphicopoulos, T., “Diffusion models of mobile telephony in Greece”, Telecommunications Policy 32(3-4) (2008) : 234-245.
  • [15] Singh, S.K., “The diffusion of mobile phones in India”, Telecommunications Policy 32, (2008) : 642-651.
  • [16] Gamboa, L.F., Otero, J., “An estimation of the pattern of diffusion of mobile phones: The case of Colombia”, Telecommunications Policy 33(10-11) (2009) : 611-620.
  • [17] Chu, W.L., Wu, F.S., Kao, K.S., Yen, D.C., “Diffusion of mobile telephony: An empirical study in Taiwan”, Telecommunications Policy 33(9) (2009) : 506-520.
  • [18] Dergiades, T., Dasilas, A., “Modelling and forecasting mobile telecommunication services: the case of Greece”, Applied Economics Letters 17 (2010) : 1823–1828.
  • [19] Gupta, R., Jain, K., “Diffusion of mobile telephony in India: An empirical study”, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 79(4) (2012) : 709-715.
  • [20] Xielin, L., Feng-Shang, W., Wen-Lin, C., “Diffusion of mobile telephony in China: Drivers and forecasts”, IEEE Trans. On Eng. Mang. 59(2) (2012) : 299-309.
  • [21] Karacuka, M., Catik, A.N., “Diffusion of Telecommunication Services in Turkey”, Ege Academic Review 12(4) (2012) : 497-510.
  • [22] Yamakawa, P., Rees, G.H., Salas, J.M., Alva, N., “The diffusion of mobile telephones: An empirical analysis for Peru”, Telecommunications Policy 37(6) (2013) : 594-606.
  • [23] Honoré, B., “Diffusion of mobile telephony: Analysis of determinants in Cameroon”, Telecommunications Policy 43(3) (2019) : 287-298.
  • [24] Braimllari, A., Kraja. A., “Modeling and forecasting the diffusion of mobile telephony in Balkan Countries”, In International Conference: Information Systems and Technology Innovations-Smart Economy and Digital Transformation 2019, 17-18 May, Tirana, Albania.
  • [25] Franses, P.H., “A method to select between Gompertz and Logistic trend curves”, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 46 (1994) : 45-49.
  • [26] Bengisu, M., Nekhili, R., “Forecasting emerging technologies with the aid of science and technology databases”, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 73(7) (2006) : 835-844.
  • [27] Jarne, G., Sanchez-Choliz, J., Fatas-Villafranca, F., “S-shaped curves in economic growth. A theoretical contribution and an application”, Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review 3(2) (2007) : 239-259.

Modeling and Forecasting the Diffusion of Mobile Telephony in Albania and Turkey

Year 2019, , 115 - 124, 31.12.2019
https://doi.org/10.30931/jetas.599517

Abstract

Mobile telephony has become a main factor driving the social and economic development of a country. This study examines the diffusion process of mobile telephony in Albania and Turkey. The aim of this research is to model and to forecast the diffusion rate of mobile telephony using Logistic and Gompertz models, and World Bank data. The results of estimated models indicated that the Gompertz model fits best with the actual data of mobile telephony in Albania, and the Logistic model fits best with the actual data of mobile telephony in Turkey. According to the results of the Logistic model, the best model for predicting the diffusion rate of mobile telephony in Albania, the maximum level of the mobile diffusion rate of 131.89% will be achieved in the year 2025. The results of the Gompertz model, the best model for predicting the mobile telephony in Turkey indicate that the maximum diffusion rate of 97.98% is predicted to be achieved after the year 2025. These findings are useful to telecommunication operators, policymakers, and customers.

References

  • [1] GSMA. The Mobile Economy 2018 Report. https://www.gsma.com/mobileeconomy/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/The-Mobile-Economy-Global-2018.pdf
  • [2] GSMA. The Mobile Economy Europe 2018 Report. https://www.gsmaintelligence.com/research/?file=884c77f3bc0a405b2d5fd356689be340&download
  • [3] World Bank: https://databank.worldbank.org/data/source/world-development-indicators#
  • [4] Electronic and Postal Communications Authority (EPCA) in Albania, Annual report 2017 (AKEP: Raporti Vjetor i Veprimtarisë 2017).
  • [5] Meade, N., Islam, T., “Modelling and forecasting the diffusion of innovation–A 25-year review”, International Journal of forecasting 22(3) (2006) : 519-545.
  • [6] Rouvinen, P., “Diffusion of digital mobile telephony: Are developing countries different?”, Telecommunications Policy 30(1) (2006) : 46-63.
  • [7] Wu, F.S., Chu, W.L., “Diffusion models of mobile telephony”, Journal of Business Research 63(5) (2010) : 497-501.
  • [8] Meade, N., Islam, T., “Forecasting the diffusion of innovations: Implications for time series extrapolation”, In Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners, J. S. Armstrong, Ed. Norwell, MA: Kluwer, 2001.
  • [9] Gruber, H., Verboven, F., “The Diffusion of mobile telecommunications Services in The European Union”, European Economic Review 45(3) (2001) : 577-588.
  • [10] Botelho, A., Pinto, L., “The diffusion of cellular phones in Portugal”, Telecommunications Policy 28 (2004) : 427-437.
  • [11] Frank, L.D., “An analysis of the effect of the economic situation on modelling and forecasting the diffusion of wireless communications in Finland”, Technological Forecasting & Social Change 71 (2004) : 391-403.
  • [12] Pereira, P., Pernias-Cerrillo, J., “The diffusion of cellular telephony in Portugal before UMTS: A time series approach”, Working paper no 08, Portuguese Competition Authority (2005).
  • [13] Lee, M., Cho, Y., “The diffusion of mobile telecommunications services in Korea”, Applied Economics Letters 14(7) (2007) : 477-481.
  • [14] Michalakelis, C., Varoutas, D., Sphicopoulos, T., “Diffusion models of mobile telephony in Greece”, Telecommunications Policy 32(3-4) (2008) : 234-245.
  • [15] Singh, S.K., “The diffusion of mobile phones in India”, Telecommunications Policy 32, (2008) : 642-651.
  • [16] Gamboa, L.F., Otero, J., “An estimation of the pattern of diffusion of mobile phones: The case of Colombia”, Telecommunications Policy 33(10-11) (2009) : 611-620.
  • [17] Chu, W.L., Wu, F.S., Kao, K.S., Yen, D.C., “Diffusion of mobile telephony: An empirical study in Taiwan”, Telecommunications Policy 33(9) (2009) : 506-520.
  • [18] Dergiades, T., Dasilas, A., “Modelling and forecasting mobile telecommunication services: the case of Greece”, Applied Economics Letters 17 (2010) : 1823–1828.
  • [19] Gupta, R., Jain, K., “Diffusion of mobile telephony in India: An empirical study”, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 79(4) (2012) : 709-715.
  • [20] Xielin, L., Feng-Shang, W., Wen-Lin, C., “Diffusion of mobile telephony in China: Drivers and forecasts”, IEEE Trans. On Eng. Mang. 59(2) (2012) : 299-309.
  • [21] Karacuka, M., Catik, A.N., “Diffusion of Telecommunication Services in Turkey”, Ege Academic Review 12(4) (2012) : 497-510.
  • [22] Yamakawa, P., Rees, G.H., Salas, J.M., Alva, N., “The diffusion of mobile telephones: An empirical analysis for Peru”, Telecommunications Policy 37(6) (2013) : 594-606.
  • [23] Honoré, B., “Diffusion of mobile telephony: Analysis of determinants in Cameroon”, Telecommunications Policy 43(3) (2019) : 287-298.
  • [24] Braimllari, A., Kraja. A., “Modeling and forecasting the diffusion of mobile telephony in Balkan Countries”, In International Conference: Information Systems and Technology Innovations-Smart Economy and Digital Transformation 2019, 17-18 May, Tirana, Albania.
  • [25] Franses, P.H., “A method to select between Gompertz and Logistic trend curves”, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 46 (1994) : 45-49.
  • [26] Bengisu, M., Nekhili, R., “Forecasting emerging technologies with the aid of science and technology databases”, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 73(7) (2006) : 835-844.
  • [27] Jarne, G., Sanchez-Choliz, J., Fatas-Villafranca, F., “S-shaped curves in economic growth. A theoretical contribution and an application”, Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review 3(2) (2007) : 239-259.
There are 27 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Mathematical Sciences
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Alma Braimllari Spaho This is me 0000-0003-3162-8987

Ambra Kraja 0000-0002-2926-0100

Publication Date December 31, 2019
Published in Issue Year 2019

Cite

APA Braimllari Spaho, A., & Kraja, A. (2019). Modeling and Forecasting the Diffusion of Mobile Telephony in Albania and Turkey. Journal of Engineering Technology and Applied Sciences, 4(3), 115-124. https://doi.org/10.30931/jetas.599517
AMA Braimllari Spaho A, Kraja A. Modeling and Forecasting the Diffusion of Mobile Telephony in Albania and Turkey. JETAS. December 2019;4(3):115-124. doi:10.30931/jetas.599517
Chicago Braimllari Spaho, Alma, and Ambra Kraja. “Modeling and Forecasting the Diffusion of Mobile Telephony in Albania and Turkey”. Journal of Engineering Technology and Applied Sciences 4, no. 3 (December 2019): 115-24. https://doi.org/10.30931/jetas.599517.
EndNote Braimllari Spaho A, Kraja A (December 1, 2019) Modeling and Forecasting the Diffusion of Mobile Telephony in Albania and Turkey. Journal of Engineering Technology and Applied Sciences 4 3 115–124.
IEEE A. Braimllari Spaho and A. Kraja, “Modeling and Forecasting the Diffusion of Mobile Telephony in Albania and Turkey”, JETAS, vol. 4, no. 3, pp. 115–124, 2019, doi: 10.30931/jetas.599517.
ISNAD Braimllari Spaho, Alma - Kraja, Ambra. “Modeling and Forecasting the Diffusion of Mobile Telephony in Albania and Turkey”. Journal of Engineering Technology and Applied Sciences 4/3 (December 2019), 115-124. https://doi.org/10.30931/jetas.599517.
JAMA Braimllari Spaho A, Kraja A. Modeling and Forecasting the Diffusion of Mobile Telephony in Albania and Turkey. JETAS. 2019;4:115–124.
MLA Braimllari Spaho, Alma and Ambra Kraja. “Modeling and Forecasting the Diffusion of Mobile Telephony in Albania and Turkey”. Journal of Engineering Technology and Applied Sciences, vol. 4, no. 3, 2019, pp. 115-24, doi:10.30931/jetas.599517.
Vancouver Braimllari Spaho A, Kraja A. Modeling and Forecasting the Diffusion of Mobile Telephony in Albania and Turkey. JETAS. 2019;4(3):115-24.