Modeling and Forecasting the Diffusion of Mobile Telephony in Albania and Turkey

Abstract

Mobile telephony has become a main factor driving the social and economic development of a country. This study examines the diffusion process of mobile telephony in Albania and Turkey. The aim of this research is to model and to forecast the diffusion rate of mobile telephony using Logistic and Gompertz models, and World Bank data. The results of estimated models indicated that the Gompertz model fits best with the actual data of mobile telephony in Albania, and the Logistic model fits best with the actual data of mobile telephony in Turkey. According to the results of the Logistic model, the best model for predicting the diffusion rate of mobile telephony in Albania, the maximum level of the mobile diffusion rate of 131.89% will be achieved in the year 2025. The results of the Gompertz model, the best model for predicting the mobile telephony in Turkey indicate that the maximum diffusion rate of 97.98% is predicted to be achieved after the year 2025. These findings are useful to telecommunication operators, policymakers, and customers.

Keywords

• mobile subscriber,technology diffusion,logistic model,gomperzt model,Stata

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