ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION AND CLIMATE IMPACTS IN JALINGO, NIGERIA

Strategic planning is fundamental to effective solid waste management (SWM), as accurate projections of future waste volumes underpin medium and long term policy decisions. This study forecasts solid waste generation in Jalingo over an 18-year period and evaluates the associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under three management scenarios. Using the İller Bankası method, projections were developed for open dumping, open burning, and incineration with electricity recovery. Emission estimates were further analyzed with the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies simulation tool. Results indicate that by the end of the forecast period, approximately 5,005,739.50 tonnes of solid waste will have accumulated in the city’s dumpsites. If managed through the three scenarios, cumulative emissions are projected at 319 tCO2eq for open dumping, 439,890 tCO2eq for open burning, and 248,144 tCO2eq for incineration with energy recovery. These findings underscore the environmental burden of current practices and highlight the comparative advantages of incineration with electricity recovery, which offers both reduced emissions and energy benefits. The study recommends prioritizing strategies that reduce per capita waste generation, thereby alleviating disposal pressures. Moreover, adopting incineration with energy recovery emerges as the most sustainable option for managing Jalingo’s growing waste streams. Such an approach would not only mitigate climate impacts but also contribute to energy generation, aligning waste management with broader environmental and developmental goals.