Ankara İlinde Meteorolojik ve Hidrolojik Kuraklık Değerlendirmesi

Öz

Son yıllarda küresel ısınmanın etkileri gün geçtikçe daha fazla hissedilmektedir. Ülkemizin yer aldığı iklim kuşağı da düşünüldüğünde kuraklık konusu kritik hale gelmektedir. Bu nedenle kuraklığın bileşenlerini analiz edebilmek ve su kaynakları üzerindeki etkilerini belirleyebilmek önemlidir. Bu çalışmada Ankara ili için meteorolojik ve hidrolojik kuraklıklar tespit edilerek iki kuraklık türü arasındaki ilişkinin belirlenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Bunun için, Standart Yağış İndeksi (SYİ) ile yağış verileri kullanılarak 1, 3, 6 ve 12 aylık meteorolojik kuraklıklar tespit edilmiştir. Daha sonra Ankara ilindeki barajlara gelen toplam debiler kullanılarak Akım Kuraklık İndeksi (AKİ) ile de hidrolojik kuraklık belirlenmiştir. Meteorolojik ve hidrolojik kuraklıklar arasındaki ilişki hem analiz sonuçları incelenerek yorumlanmış hem de korelasyon katsayıları belirlenerek tespit edilmiştir. Hidrolojik kuraklığın meteorolojik kuraklığı ortalama 1-3 ay kadar geriden takip ettiği tespit edilmiştir. Her iki kuraklık türü için de çalışılan bölgede şiddetli bir kuraklık tehlikesi beklenmemektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Kuraklık Analizi
• Hidrolojik Kuraklık
• Meteorolojik Kuraklık

Meteorological and Hydrological Drought Assessment in Ankara Province

Abstract

In recent years, the effects of global warming have been felt more and more each day. Considering the climate zone in which our country is located, the issue of drought becomes critical. Therefore, it is important to be able to analyze the components of drought and determine their effects on water resources. In this study, it was aimed to determine the relationship between the two drought types by determining meteorological and hydrological droughts for Ankara province. For this purpose, meteorological droughts of 1, 3, 6 and 12 months were determined using the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and precipitation data. Then, hydrological drought was determined by the Streamflow Drought Index (SDI) using the total flow rates coming to the dams in Ankara province. The relationship between meteorological and hydrological droughts was both interpreted by examining the analysis results and determined by determining the correlation coefficients. It has been determined that hydrological drought follows meteorological drought by an average of 1-3 months. For both types of drought, a severe drought danger is not expected in the studied region.

Keywords

• Drought Analysis
• Hydrological Drought
• Meteorological Drought

References

1. Aktürk, G., & Yıldız, O. (2018). The effect of precipitation deficits on hydrological systems in the Çatalan Dam Basin, Turkey. International Journal of Engineering Research and Development, 10(2), 10-28. https://doi.org/10.29137/umagd.441389
2. Çetin, B., & Kumanlıoğlu, A.A. (2023). Meteorological and hydrological drought analysis of Medar Basin. Dokuz Eylul University Faculty of Engineering Journal of Science and Engineering, 25(73), 167-180. https://doi.org/10.21205/deufmd.2023257314
3. Deniz Öztürk, Y., & Ünlü, R. (2022). A review on drought analysis studies in Turkey. Journal of Disaster and Risk, 5(2), 669-680. https://doi.org/10.35341/afet.1124880
4. Evci, A., & Kuş Şahin, C. (2021). A study on the drought analysis of the Salda Lake Basin using the standardized precipitation index method. The Journal of Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences of Mehmet Akif Ersoy University 12(Supplementary Issue 1), 392-403. https://doi.org/10.29048/makufebed.939139
5. Guttman, N.B., (1999). Accepting the standardized precipitation index: a calculation algoritm. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 35(2), 311-322.
6. Keskiner, A.D., & Şimşek, O. (2023). Probabilistic meteorological drought analysis: an application in the Lake District. Suleyman Demirel University Journal of Natural and Applied Sciences, 27(1), 160-169. https://doi.org/10.19113/sdufenbed.1213855
7. Li, J., Wang, Y., Li, Y., Ming, W., Long, Y., & Zhang, M. (2022). Relationship between meteorological and hydrological droughts in the upstream regions of the Lancang–Mekong River. Journal of Water & Climate Change. 13(2), 421. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2021.445
8. Lin, Q., Wu, Z., Zhang, Y., Peng, T., Chang, W., & Guo, J. (2023). Propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought and its application to drought prediction in the Xijiang River basin, South China. Journal of Hydrology, 617, 128889. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128889

9. McKee, T. B., Doesken, N. J., & Kleist, J. (1993). The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, American Meteorological Society, Anaheim, California.
10. Mckee, T.B., Doesken, N.J., Kleist, J., (1995. Drought monitoring with multiple time scales. 9th Conference on Applied Climatology, Boston, Massachusetts.
11. Menteşe, S., & Akbulut, S. (2023). determination of the drought status of Bilecik Central District and Bozüyük District with standardized precipitation ındex. Eastern Geographical Review, 28(49), 40-51. https://doi.org/10.5152/EGJ.2023.22028
12. Minh, H.V.T., Kumar, P., Toan, N.V., Nguyen, P.C., Ty, T.V., Lavane, K., Tam, N.T., & Downes, N.K. (2024). Deciphering the relationship between meteorological and hydrological drought in Ben Tre Province, Vietnam. Natural Hazard, 120, 5869-5894. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-06437-z
13. Moccia, B., Mineo, C., Ridolfi, E., Russo, F., & Napolitano, F. (2022). SPI-based drought classification in Italy: Influence of different probability distribution functions. Water, 14(22), 3668. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14223668
14. Nalbantis, I., (2008). Evaluation of a hydrological drought index. European Water, 23(24): 67-77.
15. Özfidaner, M., Topaloğlu, F. (2020). Drought analysis in Southeast Anatolia with standart precipitation index method. Soil Water Journal, 9(2):130-136. https://doi.org/10.21657/topraksu.767002
16. Özgün, G., Vaheddooost, B., & Aras, E. (2020). Drought analysis using standard precipitation index (SPI) method and associating with Bursa Doganci dam. 4th International Symposium on Natural Hazards and Disaster Management, Bursa, Turkey. https://doi.org/10.33793/acperpro.03.02.23
17. Sarwar, A.N., Waseem, M., Azam, M., Abbas, A., Ahmad, I., Lee, J.E., & Haq, F. (2022). Shifting of meteorological to hydrological drought risk at regional scale. Applied Sciences, 12, 5560. https://doi.org/10.3390/app12115560
18. Thom, H. C. S. (1958). A note on the gamma distribution. Monthly Weather Review, 86(4), 117–122.
19. Tuğrul, T., & Hınıs, M.A. (2022). Drought analysis at Apa Dam. Karamanoğlu Mehmetbey University Journal of Engineering and Natural Sciences, 4(1), 89-102. https://doi.org/10.55213/kmujens.1210753
20. Turhan, E., Çulha, B. D., & Değerli̇, S. (2022). Hydrological evaluation of streamflow drought ındex method for different time scales: a case study of Arsuz Plain, Turkey. Journal of Natural Hazards and Environment, 8(1), 25–36. https://doi.org/10.21324/dacd.903655
21. Türkeş, M. (2012). Türkiye’de gözlenen ve öngörülen iklim değişikliği, kuraklık ve çölleşme. Ankara Üniversitesi Çevrebilimleri Dergisi, 4(2), 1-32. https://doi.org/10.1501/Csaum_0000000063
22. Varol, S., & Ulusoy, M. (2023). Drought classification and determination of its effect by standardized precipitation index (SPI) method for Karacaören Dam Lakes of its surroundings. Journal of Engineering Sciences and Design, 11(3), 1142-1153. https://doi.org/10.21923/jesd.1291016
23. Wable, P.S., Jha, M.K., & Shekhar, A. (2019). Comparison of drought indices a semi-arid river basin of India. Water Resources Management 33,75–102. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-018-2089-z
24. Wang, Q., Zhang, R., Qi, J., Zeng, J., Wu, J., Shui, W., Wu, X., &Li, J. (2022). An improved daily standardized precipitation index dataset for mainland China from 1961 to 2018. Nature, 9, 124. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-022-01201-z
25. Wu, J., Chen, X., Yuan, X., Yao, X., Zhao, Y., & Aghakouchak, A. (2021). The interactions between hydrological drought evolution and precipitation-streamflow relationship. Journal of Hydrology, 597, 126210. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126210
26. Yılmaz, M.U., & Yılmaz, H. (2022). Çok değişkenli kuraklık indeksi kullanılarak kuraklık değerlendirmesi: Kırklareli İli Örneği. 11. Ulusal Hidroloji Kongresi, Gaziantep, Türkiye.