Gelişmiş Alan Oranının Aşağı Wortley Nehrinin Sel Riskine Olan Etkisinin Değerlendirilmesi

Öz

Havzalardaki nüfus ve değerli yatırımlar gün be gün artmaktadır buyüzden şehirlerdeki nehirler ciddi bir risk oluşturmaktadır.  Bu makale İngiltere, Leeds de bulunan aşağı Wortley nehrini besleyen, alt havzalardaki geçirimsiz yüzey oranlarının, çıkış debilerine olan etkisini araştırmaktadır.  Aşağı Wortley, havzanın kentleşmiş ve debi kayıt merkezi bulunmayan kısmındadır. Nehir taşkın senaryoları hidrolojik ve hidrolik modellerin birleştirilmesiyle oluşturulmuştur. Sel olayları Revitalised Flood Hydrograph (ReFH) yağış-akış modeli kullanılarak dizayn edilmiştir. Arazi kullanım değişikliklerinin etkileri farklı değerlerdeki, sel tahmin el kitabındaki (FEH) havza tanımlayıcılarından biri olan, kentsel ve banliyö örtüsünün kapsamı (URBEXT) parametresinin farklı değerleri uygulanarak çalışılmıştır. Ayrıca, sel genişlikleri, Flood Modeler Suite ile TUFLOW hidrodinamik modelleri aracılığı ile elde edilmiştir. Bu simülasyon çıktıları maksimum su derinliği değerlerine sahip olasılıksal sel alanları haritalarıdır. Böylece, alt havzalardaki farklı yüzdelerdeki geçirimsiz yüzeylerin, çıkış debilerine ve aşağı havzadaki sel felaketine olan etkileri gözlemlenebilir.  Bu sonuçlar, şehir konseylerinin taşkın dayanıklılığı yaklaşımlarını geliştirmesinde kullanılabilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Olasılıksal Nehir Taşkın Riski Değerlendirmesi,Şehir Nehirleri,Arazi Kullanımı Değişikliği,URBEXT

Assessment of The Impact of The Ratio of The Developed Area on The Fluvial Flood Risk of Lower Wortley Beck

Abstract

Population and valuable investments have been increasing day by day in basins. Thus, urban rives create a serious potential risk in the cities. This paper investigates the impacts of the percentages of the impermeable surfaces on the discharges from sub-catchments of the Lower Wortley Beck, Leeds, UK. Lower Wortley is in urbanized and ungauged part of the basin. The fluvial flood events were created by combining hydrological and hydrodynamic models for various events. Flood events were designed by using Revitalised Flood Hydrograph (ReFH) rainfall-runoff models. The impact of land use changes was examined by applying various Extent of urban and suburban cover (URBEXT) parameter of the Flood Estimation Handbook (FEH) catchment descriptor. Also, flood extents were simulated by linking Flood Modeler Suite with TUFLOW, hydrodynamic models. The outcomes of these simulations are probabilistic inundation maps with maximum water depth values. Thus, the impact of the different percentages of the impermeable surfaces of the sub-catchments on the discharge and fluvial flood risk at the downstream can be observed. These outcomes can be used to enrich the flood resilience approaches by city councils.

Keywords

• Probabilistic Fluvial Flood Risk Assessment,Urban Rivers,Land Use Change,URBEXT

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