Estimation of power outputs of two different photovoltaic solar panels with different heuristic algorithms

Year 2025, Volume: 5 Issue: 2, 568 - 587, 31.07.2025

Abdil Karakan

https://doi.org/10.61112/jiens.1620198

Abstract

The estimation of the power values obtained from photovoltaic (PV) systems is of critical importance for the reliable and economical use of solar energy panels. This estimation affects many processes, starting from the installation phase of solar panels to guiding electricity companies, energy management, and distribution. At the same time, it is necessary to detect the adaptations of solar panels in a timely manner and reach the optimal production capacity to provide the most efficient energy production. In this context, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) were used to estimate the power values obtained from PV panels. In this study, heuristic algorithms such as Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Genetic Algorithm (GA), Clonal Selection Algorithm (CSA), Ant Colony Optimization, and Artificial Bee Colony (ABC) were used to estimate the power values obtained from monocrystalline and polycrystalline photovoltaic panels. In the verification of the estimation results, the most common statistical evaluation criteria, Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Variance (R2) equations were used. The estimation values made with the PSO algorithm were the closest to the real values. 98.95% estimation was achieved in monocrystalline photovoltaic solar panels and 93.94% in polycrystalline photovoltaic solar panels.

Keywords

Solar panel , Artificial neural network , Prediction , Particle swarm optimization , Panel types

İki farklı fotovoltaik güneş panelin güç çıkışlarının farklı sezgisel algoritmalar ile tahmini

Abstract

Fotovoltaik (FV) sistemlerden elde edilen güç değerlerinin tahmini, güneş enerjisi panellerinin güvenilir ve ekonomik bir şekilde kullanılabilmesi için kritik öneme sahiptir. Bu tahmin, güneş panellerinin kurulum aşamasından başlayarak elektrik şirketlerine rehberlik edilmesine, enerji yönetimi ve dağıtımına kadar birçok süreci etkiler. Aynı zamanda, en verimli enerji üretimi sağlamak için güneş panellerinin adaptasyonlarının zamanında tespiti ve optimal üretim kapa-sitesine ulaşılması için de gereklidir. Bu bağlamda, FV panellerinden elde edilen güç değerleri-nin tahmin edilmesi amacıyla Yapay Sinir Ağları (YSA) kullanılmıştır. Bu çalışmada, monokris-tal ve polikristal forovoktaik panellerinden elde edilen güç değerlerinin tahmini için sezgisel algoritmalardan Parçacık Sürü Optimizasyonu(PSO), Genetik Algoritma (GA), Klonal Seçim Algoritması(KSA), Karınca Kolonisi Optimizasyonu ve Yapay Arı Kolonisi (YAK) kullanılmış-tır. Tahmin sonuçlarının doğrulanmasında en yaygın istatiksel değerlendirme kriteri olan Orta-lama Mutlak Yüzde Hata (MAPE), Ortalama Karesel Hataların Karekökü (RMSE) ve Varyans (R2) eşitliklerinden yararlanılmıştır. PSO algoritması ile yapılan tahmin değerleri gerçek de-ğerlere en yakın sonuçlar olmuştur. Monokristal fotovoltaik güneş panelinde %98,95, polikristal fotovoltaik güneş panelinden ise %93,94 oranında tahmin işlemi gerçekleşmiştir.

Keywords

güneş paneli , yapay sinir ağları , tahmin , Parçacık Sürü Optimizasyonu

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