Politik İstikrarsızlık Çerçevesinde Politika Ve İktisat Etkileşimi

Year 2015, Volume: 3 Issue: 2, 39 - 54, 01.12.2015

Türker Şimşek

Abstract

Çalışmada politika ve iktisat arasındaki etkileşim politik istikrarsızlık çerçevesinde ele alınarak makroekonomik performansı yansıtan politik istikrar, yatırımlar, para arzı, dışa açıklık, işsizlik, kamu harcamaları ve tüketici fiyat endeksi gibi göstergelerin ekonomide gerçekleşen dalgalanmalar üzerindeki etkisini incelemek amaçlanmaktadır. Bu amaçla Dünya Bankası ve Uluslararası Para Fonu’nun gelirlere göre orta üst - orta alt gelirli ülkeler olarak sınıflandırdığı 2002-2013 dönemine ait veri temininde sıkıntı yaşanılmayan farklı bölgelerden 66 ülkeye panel veri analizi uygulanmıştır. Analiz sonucunda politik istikrar endeksi, orta üst – orta alt gelir grubunda yer alan ülkeleri etkilemektedir ve bu durum ülkelerin demokratikleşme sürecinde daha çok mesafe alması, anayasal, sosyal, idari, ekonomik ve politik alanlarda önemli gelişmeler gerçekleştirmesi gerektiğini göstermiştir. Orta üst- orta alt gelir gruplarındaki ülkelerde söz konusu alanlarda kırılgan yapı ve Fırsatçı, Miyopi-Kutuplaşma, Sosyal Düzensizlik ve Zayıf Hükümet Yaklaşımlarının görüşlerinin çok kez görülmesi bu ülkelerdeki konjonktürel dalgalanmaları da arttırıcı etki göstermektedir. Dolayısıyla ekonomilerdeki ilerlemenin doğru analizi ve uzun dönemde istikrarlı bir yapıda büyüyen bir ekonomik yapıyı meydana getiren iktisat politikalarının belirlenebilmesi için bulunan sonuçların etraflıca değerlendirilmesi gerekmektedir.

Keywords

Politik İstikrarsızlık, Politik Yaklaşımlar, Panel Veri

The Interaction Of Politics And Economics In The Context Of Politıcal Instability

Abstract

The interaction between politics and economics in the study
is examined within the context of political instability and it is aimed to
examine the effects of indicators such as political stability, investment,
money supply, openness, unemployment, public expenditures and consumer price
index reflecting macroeconomic performance on the fluctuations in the economy.
For this purpose, panel data analysis is being conducted on 66 countries from
different regions classified by the World Bank and the International Monetary
Fund as middle low-middle upper income countries and with no difficulties in
data provision for the period 2002-2013. As a result of the analysis, the
political stability index affects the countries in the middle lower and middle
upper income group, indicating that countries should make significant
improvements in the democratization process, in constitutional, social,
administrative, economic and political areas. In the countries with middle
lower and middle upper income groups, the fragile structure in these areas and
the frequent views of Opportunist, Myopia-Polarization, Social Disorder and
Weak Government Approaches also have an effect on the cyclical fluctuations in
these countries. Therefore, it is necessary to extensively assess the results
of the correct analysis of the progress of economies and the determination of
the economic policies that lead to a growing economic structure in a long-term
stable structure.

Keywords

Politik İstikrarsızlık, Politik Yaklaşımlar, Panel Veri

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