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SIGNALING, BIRD IN THE HAND AND CATERING EFFECT IN INDONESIA

Year 2015, Volume: 2 Issue: 3, 1 - 24, 28.07.2015
https://doi.org/10.15637/jlecon.80

Abstract

It had been known that the presence of dividend will affect the value of shares in the stock
market, but since the dividend payers also belief that, their stock price will increase by paying
dividend to investors, then it seems these phenomenon are becoming very complex to explain. The
objective of this study is want to give an empirical evidence whether dividend plays the main role for
fluctuation of stock price or vice versa in the stock market. The results show that, dividend has
significant effect to stock price, and conversely, stock price also has significant effect to dividend. The
implications of this study are fit for signaling effect, bird in the hand effect, and catering effect which
is dominated by dividend payers who paying dividend continuously. In further analysis, this study find,
the most specific characteristics for dividend payers who paying dividend continuously compared to
other dividend payers are larger number of shares, larger fixed assets, largest total assets, largest
total debt, largest retained earnings, largest revenue, and largest net income.  

References

  • ABOODY, D., BARTH, M.E., & KASZNIK, R. (1999). Revaluations of fixed assets and future firm performance : Evidence from the UK. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 26(1-3), 149-178.
  • ABRUTYN, S., & TURNER, R.W. (1990). Taxes & Firm’s Dividend Policies : Survey Results. National Tax Journal, 43(4), 491-96.
  • ACHARYA, S. (1988). A Generalized Econometric Model and Tests of a Signalling Hypothesis with Two Discrete Signals. The Journal of Finance, 43(2), 413-429.
  • ACKERT, L. F., & SMITH, B. F. (1993). Stock Price Volatility, Ordinary Dividends, and Other Cash Flows to Shareholders. The Journal of Finance, 48(4), 1147-1160.
  • AHARONY, J., & SWARY, I. (1980). Quarterly Dividend and Earnings Announcements and Stockholders' Returns : An Empirical Analysis. The Journal of Finance, 35(1), 1-12.
  • ASQUITH, P., & MULLINS, D. W., Jr. (1986). Signalling with Dividends, Stock Repurchases, and Equity Issues. Financial Management, 15(3), 27-44.
  • BAKER, H. K., & HASLEM, J. A. (1974). Toward the Development of Client-Specified Valuation Models. The Journal of Finance, 29(4), 1255-1263.
  • BAKER, M., & WURGLER, J. (2004a). A Catering Theory of Dividends. The Journal of Finance, 59(30), 1125-1165.
  • BAKER, M., & WURGLER, J. (2004b). Appearing and Disappearing Dividends : The Link to Catering Incentives. Journal of Financial Economics, 73(2), 271–288. BAKER, M., & WURGLER, J. (2006). Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns. The Journal of Finance, 61(4), 1645-1680. BAKER, M., & WURGLER, J. (2007). Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 21(2), 129-151.
  • BARSKY, R. B., & DE LONG, J. B. (1993). Why Does the Stock Market Fluctuate? The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108(2), 291-311.
  • BEAVER, W. H. (1968). The Information Content of Annual Earnings Announcements. Journal of Accounting Research, 6, 67-92.
  • BENARTZI, S., MICHAELY, R., & THALER, R. (1997). Do Changes in Dividends Signal the Future or the Past? The Journal of Finance, 52(3), 1007-1034.
  • BHATTACHARYA, S. (1979). Imperfect Information, Dividend Policy, and "The Bird in the Hand" Fallacy. The Bell Journal of Economics, 10(1), 259-270. BLACK, F. (1996). The Dividend Puzzle. The Journal of Portfolio Management, Special Issue, 8-12.
  • BRENNAN, M. J., & THAKOR, A. V. (1990). Shareholders Preferences and Dividend Policy. The Journal of Finance, 45(4), 990-1018.
  • CAMPBELL, J. Y., & KYLE, A. S. (1993). Smart Money, Noise Trading, and Stock Price Behavior. The Review of Economic Studies, 60(1), 1-34.
  • CAMPBELL, J. Y., & SHILLER, R. J. (1988). Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends. The Journal of Finance, 43(3), 661-676.
  • CHEMMANUR, T. J., HE, J., HU, G., & LIU, H. (2010). Is dividend smoothing universal? New insights from a comparative study of dividend policies in Hong Kong and the U.S. Journal of Corporate Finance, 16(4), 413-430.
  • COPELAND, B. L., Jr. (1983). Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends? Comment. The American Economic Review, 73(1), 234-235.
  • DATTA, S., & DHILLON, U. S. (1993). Bond and Stock Market Response to Unexpected Earnings Announcements. The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 28(4), 565-577.
  • EASTERBROOK, F. H. (1984). Two Agency Cost Explanations of Dividends. The American Economic Review, 74(4), 650-659.
  • ELTON, E. J., GRUBER, M. J. & RENTZLER, J. (1984). The Ex-Dividend Day Behavior of Stock Prices; A Re-Examination of the Clientele Effect: A Comment. The Journal of Finance, 39(2), 551-556.
  • ERASMUS, P. (2013). The Influence of Dividend Yield and Dividend Stability on Share Returns: Implications for Dividend Policy Formulation. Journal of Economic and Financial Sciences, 6(1), 13-32.
  • FAMA, E. F., & FRENCH, K. R. (2001). Disappearing Dividends : Changing Firm Characteristics or Lower Propensity to Pay? Journal of Financial Economics, 60(1), 3- 43.
  • GORDON, M. J. (1959). Dividends, Earnings, and Stock Prices. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 41(2), 99-105.
  • GRULLON, G., MICHAELY, R., & SWAMINATHAN, B. (2002). Are Dividend Changes a Sign of Firm Maturity? The Journal of Business, 75(3), 387-424.
  • GUGLER, K. (2003). Corporate governance, dividend payout policy, and the interrelation between dividends, R&D, and capital investment. Journal of Banking & Finance, 27(7), 1297–1321.
  • HOBERG, G., & PRABHALA, N. R. (2009). Disappearing Dividends, Catering, and Risk.The Review of Financial Studies, 22(1), 79-116.
  • HOLT, R. W. P. (2003). Investment and dividends under irreversibility and financial constraints. Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, 27(3), 467–502.
  • JOHN, K., & WILLIAMS, J. (1985). Dividends, Dilution, and Taxes: A Signalling Equilibrium. The Journal of Finance, 40(4), 1053-1070.
  • KATO, H. K., LOEWENSTEIN, U., & TSAY, W. (2002). Dividend policy, cash flow, and investment in Japan. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 10(4), 443– 473.
  • KOCH, P. D., & SHENOY, C. (1999). The Information Content of Dividend and Capital Structure Policies. Financial Management, 28(4), 16-35.
  • LA PORTA, R., DE SILANES, F. L., SHLEIFER, A., & VISHNY, R. W. (2000). Agency Problems and Dividend Policies around the world. The Journal of Finance, 55(1), 1- 33.
  • LI, W., & LIE, E. (2006). Dividend Changes and Catering Incentives. Journal of Financial Economics, 80(2), 293-308.
  • LI, K., & ZHAO, X. (2008). Asymmetric Information and Dividend Policy. Financial Management, 37(4), 673-694.
  • MALKIEL, B. G. (1989). Is the Stock Market Efficient? Science, New Series, 243(4896), 1313-1318.
  • MILLER, M. H., & MODIGLIANI, F. (1961). Dividend Policy, Growth, and the Valuation of Shares. The Journal of Business, 34(4), 411-433. , MILLER, M. H., & ROCK, K. (1985). Dividend Policy under Asymmetric Information. The Journal of Finance, 40(4), 1031-1051.
  • NISSIM, D., & ZIV, A. (2001). Dividend Changes and Future Profitability. The Journal of Finance, 56(6), 2111-2133.
  • OFER, A. R., & THAKOR, A. V. (1987). A Theory of Stock Price Responses to Alternative Corporate Cash Disbursement Methods: Stock Repurchases and Dividends. Journal of Finance, 42(2), 365-394
  • POLK, C., & SAPIENZA, P. (2009). The Stock Market and Corporate Investment: A Test of Catering Theory. The Review of Financial Studies, 22(1), 187-217.
  • SHILLER, R. J. (1981). Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends? American Economic Review, 71(3), 421-36.
  • SLOAN, R. G. (1996). Do Stock Prices Fully Reflect Information in Accruals and Cash Flows about Future Earnings? The Accounting Review, 71(3), 289-315.
  • SRINIVASAN. (2012). Determinants of Equity Share Prices in India: A Panel Data Approach, The Romanian Economic Journal, 15(46), 205-228.
  • WACHTER, M. L. (2003). Takeover Defense When Financial Markets Are (Only) Relatively Efficient. University of Pennsylvania Law Review, 151(3), 787-824.
  • YOON, P. S., & STARKS, L. T. (1995). Signaling, Investment Opportunities, and Dividend Announcements. Review of Financial Studies, 8(4), 995-1018.
  • ZAKARIA, Z., MUHAMMAD, J. & ZULKIFLI, A. H. (2012). The Impact of Dividend Policy on The Share Price Volatility : Malaysian Construction and Material Companies. International Journal of Economics and Management Sciences, 2(5), 1-8.
  • ZAMAN, S. (2011). Is Dividend Policy An Important Determinant of Market Performance : Focus on Private Banks of Bangladesh. World Review of Business Research, 1(4), 135-141

SIGNALING, BIRD IN THE HAND AND CATERING EFFECT IN INDONESIA

Year 2015, Volume: 2 Issue: 3, 1 - 24, 28.07.2015
https://doi.org/10.15637/jlecon.80

Abstract

It had been known that the presence of dividend will affect the value of shares in the stock
market, but since the dividend payers also belief that, their stock price will increase by paying
dividend to investors, then it seems these phenomenon are becoming very complex to explain. The
objective of this study is want to give an empirical evidence whether dividend plays the main role for
fluctuation of stock price or vice versa in the stock market. The results show that, dividend has
significant effect to stock price, and conversely, stock price also has significant effect to dividend. The
implications of this study are fit for signaling effect, bird in the hand effect, and catering effect which
is dominated by dividend payers who paying dividend continuously. In further analysis, this study find,
the most specific characteristics for dividend payers who paying dividend continuously compared to
other dividend payers are larger number of shares, larger fixed assets, largest total assets, largest
total debt, largest retained earnings, largest revenue, and largest net income.  

References

  • ABOODY, D., BARTH, M.E., & KASZNIK, R. (1999). Revaluations of fixed assets and future firm performance : Evidence from the UK. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 26(1-3), 149-178.
  • ABRUTYN, S., & TURNER, R.W. (1990). Taxes & Firm’s Dividend Policies : Survey Results. National Tax Journal, 43(4), 491-96.
  • ACHARYA, S. (1988). A Generalized Econometric Model and Tests of a Signalling Hypothesis with Two Discrete Signals. The Journal of Finance, 43(2), 413-429.
  • ACKERT, L. F., & SMITH, B. F. (1993). Stock Price Volatility, Ordinary Dividends, and Other Cash Flows to Shareholders. The Journal of Finance, 48(4), 1147-1160.
  • AHARONY, J., & SWARY, I. (1980). Quarterly Dividend and Earnings Announcements and Stockholders' Returns : An Empirical Analysis. The Journal of Finance, 35(1), 1-12.
  • ASQUITH, P., & MULLINS, D. W., Jr. (1986). Signalling with Dividends, Stock Repurchases, and Equity Issues. Financial Management, 15(3), 27-44.
  • BAKER, H. K., & HASLEM, J. A. (1974). Toward the Development of Client-Specified Valuation Models. The Journal of Finance, 29(4), 1255-1263.
  • BAKER, M., & WURGLER, J. (2004a). A Catering Theory of Dividends. The Journal of Finance, 59(30), 1125-1165.
  • BAKER, M., & WURGLER, J. (2004b). Appearing and Disappearing Dividends : The Link to Catering Incentives. Journal of Financial Economics, 73(2), 271–288. BAKER, M., & WURGLER, J. (2006). Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns. The Journal of Finance, 61(4), 1645-1680. BAKER, M., & WURGLER, J. (2007). Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 21(2), 129-151.
  • BARSKY, R. B., & DE LONG, J. B. (1993). Why Does the Stock Market Fluctuate? The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108(2), 291-311.
  • BEAVER, W. H. (1968). The Information Content of Annual Earnings Announcements. Journal of Accounting Research, 6, 67-92.
  • BENARTZI, S., MICHAELY, R., & THALER, R. (1997). Do Changes in Dividends Signal the Future or the Past? The Journal of Finance, 52(3), 1007-1034.
  • BHATTACHARYA, S. (1979). Imperfect Information, Dividend Policy, and "The Bird in the Hand" Fallacy. The Bell Journal of Economics, 10(1), 259-270. BLACK, F. (1996). The Dividend Puzzle. The Journal of Portfolio Management, Special Issue, 8-12.
  • BRENNAN, M. J., & THAKOR, A. V. (1990). Shareholders Preferences and Dividend Policy. The Journal of Finance, 45(4), 990-1018.
  • CAMPBELL, J. Y., & KYLE, A. S. (1993). Smart Money, Noise Trading, and Stock Price Behavior. The Review of Economic Studies, 60(1), 1-34.
  • CAMPBELL, J. Y., & SHILLER, R. J. (1988). Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends. The Journal of Finance, 43(3), 661-676.
  • CHEMMANUR, T. J., HE, J., HU, G., & LIU, H. (2010). Is dividend smoothing universal? New insights from a comparative study of dividend policies in Hong Kong and the U.S. Journal of Corporate Finance, 16(4), 413-430.
  • COPELAND, B. L., Jr. (1983). Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends? Comment. The American Economic Review, 73(1), 234-235.
  • DATTA, S., & DHILLON, U. S. (1993). Bond and Stock Market Response to Unexpected Earnings Announcements. The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 28(4), 565-577.
  • EASTERBROOK, F. H. (1984). Two Agency Cost Explanations of Dividends. The American Economic Review, 74(4), 650-659.
  • ELTON, E. J., GRUBER, M. J. & RENTZLER, J. (1984). The Ex-Dividend Day Behavior of Stock Prices; A Re-Examination of the Clientele Effect: A Comment. The Journal of Finance, 39(2), 551-556.
  • ERASMUS, P. (2013). The Influence of Dividend Yield and Dividend Stability on Share Returns: Implications for Dividend Policy Formulation. Journal of Economic and Financial Sciences, 6(1), 13-32.
  • FAMA, E. F., & FRENCH, K. R. (2001). Disappearing Dividends : Changing Firm Characteristics or Lower Propensity to Pay? Journal of Financial Economics, 60(1), 3- 43.
  • GORDON, M. J. (1959). Dividends, Earnings, and Stock Prices. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 41(2), 99-105.
  • GRULLON, G., MICHAELY, R., & SWAMINATHAN, B. (2002). Are Dividend Changes a Sign of Firm Maturity? The Journal of Business, 75(3), 387-424.
  • GUGLER, K. (2003). Corporate governance, dividend payout policy, and the interrelation between dividends, R&D, and capital investment. Journal of Banking & Finance, 27(7), 1297–1321.
  • HOBERG, G., & PRABHALA, N. R. (2009). Disappearing Dividends, Catering, and Risk.The Review of Financial Studies, 22(1), 79-116.
  • HOLT, R. W. P. (2003). Investment and dividends under irreversibility and financial constraints. Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, 27(3), 467–502.
  • JOHN, K., & WILLIAMS, J. (1985). Dividends, Dilution, and Taxes: A Signalling Equilibrium. The Journal of Finance, 40(4), 1053-1070.
  • KATO, H. K., LOEWENSTEIN, U., & TSAY, W. (2002). Dividend policy, cash flow, and investment in Japan. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 10(4), 443– 473.
  • KOCH, P. D., & SHENOY, C. (1999). The Information Content of Dividend and Capital Structure Policies. Financial Management, 28(4), 16-35.
  • LA PORTA, R., DE SILANES, F. L., SHLEIFER, A., & VISHNY, R. W. (2000). Agency Problems and Dividend Policies around the world. The Journal of Finance, 55(1), 1- 33.
  • LI, W., & LIE, E. (2006). Dividend Changes and Catering Incentives. Journal of Financial Economics, 80(2), 293-308.
  • LI, K., & ZHAO, X. (2008). Asymmetric Information and Dividend Policy. Financial Management, 37(4), 673-694.
  • MALKIEL, B. G. (1989). Is the Stock Market Efficient? Science, New Series, 243(4896), 1313-1318.
  • MILLER, M. H., & MODIGLIANI, F. (1961). Dividend Policy, Growth, and the Valuation of Shares. The Journal of Business, 34(4), 411-433. , MILLER, M. H., & ROCK, K. (1985). Dividend Policy under Asymmetric Information. The Journal of Finance, 40(4), 1031-1051.
  • NISSIM, D., & ZIV, A. (2001). Dividend Changes and Future Profitability. The Journal of Finance, 56(6), 2111-2133.
  • OFER, A. R., & THAKOR, A. V. (1987). A Theory of Stock Price Responses to Alternative Corporate Cash Disbursement Methods: Stock Repurchases and Dividends. Journal of Finance, 42(2), 365-394
  • POLK, C., & SAPIENZA, P. (2009). The Stock Market and Corporate Investment: A Test of Catering Theory. The Review of Financial Studies, 22(1), 187-217.
  • SHILLER, R. J. (1981). Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends? American Economic Review, 71(3), 421-36.
  • SLOAN, R. G. (1996). Do Stock Prices Fully Reflect Information in Accruals and Cash Flows about Future Earnings? The Accounting Review, 71(3), 289-315.
  • SRINIVASAN. (2012). Determinants of Equity Share Prices in India: A Panel Data Approach, The Romanian Economic Journal, 15(46), 205-228.
  • WACHTER, M. L. (2003). Takeover Defense When Financial Markets Are (Only) Relatively Efficient. University of Pennsylvania Law Review, 151(3), 787-824.
  • YOON, P. S., & STARKS, L. T. (1995). Signaling, Investment Opportunities, and Dividend Announcements. Review of Financial Studies, 8(4), 995-1018.
  • ZAKARIA, Z., MUHAMMAD, J. & ZULKIFLI, A. H. (2012). The Impact of Dividend Policy on The Share Price Volatility : Malaysian Construction and Material Companies. International Journal of Economics and Management Sciences, 2(5), 1-8.
  • ZAMAN, S. (2011). Is Dividend Policy An Important Determinant of Market Performance : Focus on Private Banks of Bangladesh. World Review of Business Research, 1(4), 135-141
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Winston Pontoh This is me

Publication Date July 28, 2015
Published in Issue Year 2015 Volume: 2 Issue: 3

Cite

APA Pontoh, W. (2015). SIGNALING, BIRD IN THE HAND AND CATERING EFFECT IN INDONESIA. Journal of Life Economics, 2(3), 1-24. https://doi.org/10.15637/jlecon.80