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THE EFFECT OF R & D SPENDING ON THE MIDDLE INCOME TRAP: PANEL DATA ANALYSIS FOR THE EU AND TURKEY

Year 2016, Volume: 3 Issue: 4, 219 - 234, 31.10.2016
https://doi.org/10.15637/jlecon.146

Abstract

he literature discusses middle-income trap as middle income group of countries can not
reach high income group. This problem arises from inability to create sufficient infrastructure during
their development process. Therefore countries attempt to increase technological infrastructure-based
R&D to reach high income group of countries. This study aims to assess the role R&D on MIT for
European Union and Turkey. In this paper effect of R&D on MIT was investigated for EU-28
(Luxembourg, Denmark, Swedish, Netherlands, Austria, Finland, Germany, Belgium, Ireland, France,
England, Italy, Spain, Cyprus, Slovenia, Greece, Portugal, Malta, Czech Republic, Estonia, Slovak
Republic, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Croatia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria) and Turkey. Relationship
among per capita income, R&D and savings were analyzed by using Westerlund Bootstrap Westerlund
Durbin-Hausman cointegration and Hacker and Hatemi-J bootstrap causality in panel data analysis.
The result of the study concludes a long term relationship among variables. A unidirectional causality
was found from per capita income to R & D. But no causality effect was found from R & D to per
capita income and between other variables as well. 

References

  • ADEWUYI, A. O., BANKOLE, A. S. & AROWOMO, D. F., 2010, What Determines Savings In The Economic Community Of West African State (ECOWAS)?, Journal of Monetary and Economic Integration, 10(2), 71-99.
  • AGENOR, P. R., 2015, Caught in The Middle? The Economics of Middle Income Traps, FERDI Working Paper 142, 1-45.
  • AGRAWAL, P., 2001, The Relationship Between Savings and Growth: Cointegration and Causality Evidence From Asia, Applied Economics, 33(4), 499-513.
  • AGRAWAL, P., SAHOO, P. and DASH, R. K., 2010, Savings Behavior in India: Cointegration and Causality Evidence, Singapore Econ. Review, 55(02).
  • ALTINTAŞ, H. ve MERCAN, M., 2015, Ar-Ge Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: OECD Ülkeleri Üzerine Yatay Kesit Bağımlılığı Altında Panel Eşbütünleşme Analizi, Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 70(2), 345-376.
  • ATİK, H., 2015, Türkiye İçin Orta Gelir Tuzağından Kurtuluş Önerileri, Sosyoekonomi, 23(26), 165-174.
  • BALTAGI, B. H., 2013, Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, Fifth Edition. United Kingdom: John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
  • BINGWEN, Z., 2011, The Middle Income Trap and China’s Path to Development: International Experiences and Lessons, China Economist, 6(3), 16-27.
  • BREUSCH, T. S. and PAGAN, A. R., 1980, The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Application to Model Specifications in Econometrics. Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-53.
  • EICHENGREEN, B., PARK, D. and SHIN K., 2013, Growth Slowdowns Redux: New Evidence on the Middle-Income Trap, National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No. 18673.
  • ENER, M. ve KARANFİL, M., 2015, Türkiye Ekonomisinde Tasarruf Açığının Orta Gelir Tuzağı Üzerine Etkisi, Eskişehir Osman Gazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 10(2), 31-46.
  • FELIPE, J., ABDON, A. and KUMAR, U., 2012, Tracking the Middle-Income Trap: What Is It, Who Is in It, and Why?, Levy Economics Institute, Working Paper No. 715.
  • FREIRE-SERÉN, M. J., 1999, Aggregate R&D Expenditure and Endogenous Economic Growth, http://pareto.uab.es/wp/1999/43699.pdf. (01.03.2016).
  • GÜLMEZ, A. Ve YARDIMCIOĞLU, F., (2012), OECD Ülkelerinde Ar-Ge Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Panel Eşbütünleşme ve Panel Nedensellik Analizi (1990-2010), Maliye Dergisi, Sayı 163, 335-353.
  • HACKER, R. S. and HATEMI-J, A., 2006, Test for Causality Between Integrated Variables Using Asymptotic and Bootstrap Distributions: Theory and Application, Applied Economics, 38, 1489-1500.
  • HSIAO, C., 2003, Analysis of Panel Data, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • JITSUCHON, S., 2012, Thailand in A Middle Income Trap, TDRI Quarterly Review, 27(2), 13-20.
  • KANCHOOCHAT, V. and INTARAKUMNERD, P., 2014, Tigers Trapped: Tracing the Middle-Income Trap Through The East and Southeast Asian Experience, Berlin Working Papers on Money, Finance, Trade and Development. fileadmin/working_paper_series/wp_04_2014_Kanchoochat_Tiger_Trapped (11.02.2016).
  • KASENDA, D., 2014, Can Asian Developing Countries Stuck in A ‘’Middle Income Trap’’ Learn From South Korea’s Economic Development Experience?, Jakarta Indonesia12720.
  • KHARAS, H. and KOHLI, H., 2011, What is the Middle Income Trap, Why Do Countries Fall into it, and How Can it Be Avoided?, Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, 3(3), 281-289.
  • KOÇAK, E. ve BULUT, Ü., 2014, Orta Gelir Tuzağı: Teorik Çerçeve, Ampirik Yaklaşımlar ve Türkiye Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Uygulama, Maliye Dergisi, 167, 1-21.
  • KORKMAZ, S., 2014, Türkiye’de Ar-Ge Yatırımları ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin VAR Modeli İle Analizi, Journal of Yaşar University, 20(5), 3320-3330.
  • OHNO, K., 2009, The Middle-income Trap, Implications for Industrialization Strategies in East Asia and Africa, GRIPS Development Forum, http://www.grips.ac.jp/forum-e/,02.01.2016.
  • PESARAN, M. H., 2004, General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels, University of Cambridge & USC.
  • PESARAN, M. H., 2007, A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in The Presence of Cross-Section Dependence, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22, 265-312.
  • PESARAN, M. H. and YAMAGATA, T., 2008, Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels, Journal of Econometrics, 142, 50-93.
  • ROBERTSON, E. P. and Ye L., 2013, On the Existence of a Middle Income Trap, Economics Discussion, Working Papers No. 13-12.
  • SECK, A., 2012, International technology Diffusion and Economic Growth: Explaining the Spillover Benefits to Developing Countries, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 23: 437– 451.
  • SUNGUR, O., AYDIN, H. İ. ve EREN, M. V., (2016), Türkiye’de Ar-Ge, İnovasyon, İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Asimetrik Nedensellik Analizi, SDÜ İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 21(1), 173-192.
  • TABAN, S. ve ŞENGÜR, M., (2014), Türkiye’de Ar-Ge ve Ekonomik Büyüme, AİBÜ Sosyal Bilimler Enstitü Dergisi, 14(1), 355-376.
  • THO, T. W., 2013, The Middle-Income Trap: Issues for Members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, VNU Journal of Economics and Business, 29(2), 107-128.
  • YENTÜRK, N., ULENGİN, B. ve ÇİMENOĞLU, A., 2009, An Analysis of the Interaction Among Savings Investments and Growth in Turkey, Applied Economics, 41, 739-751.
  • WESTERLUND, J. and EDGERTON, D. L., 2007, A Panel Bootstrap Cointegration Test, Economics Letters, 97, 185-190.
  • WESTERLUND, J., 2008, Panel Cointegration Test of The Fisher Effect, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 23, 193-233.
  • WOO, W.T., 2012, China Meets the Middle-Income Trap: The Large Potholes in The Road to Catching-up. Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, 10(4), 313-336.
  • WORLD BANK, 2016, World Development Indicators, http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=world-developmentindicators, (Erişim Tarihi: 10 Şubat 2016).

AR-GE HARCAMALARININ ORTA GELİR TUZAĞI ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ: AVRUPA BİRLİĞİ VE TÜRKİYE İÇİN PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ

Year 2016, Volume: 3 Issue: 4, 219 - 234, 31.10.2016
https://doi.org/10.15637/jlecon.146

Abstract

Literatürde orta gelir tuzağı, orta gelir grubundaki ülkelerin kalkınmasında yeterli alt yapıyı
oluşturamaması nedeniyle bir üst gelir grubuna çıkamamasını açıklamaktadır. Ülkelerin yüksek gelir
grubuna geçebilmesi için teknolojik alt yapıya dayalı Ar-Ge harcamalarına ayrılan payın önemi
artmaktadır. Çalışmanın amacı Avrupa Birliği ülkeleri ve Türkiye için orta gelir tuzağı (MIT) üzerinde
Ar-Ge harcamalarının rolünün değerlendirilmesidir. Bu bağlamda çalışmada AB-28 (Lüksemburg,
Danimarka, İsveç, Hollanda, Avusturya, Finlandiya, Almanya, Belçika, İrlanda, Fransa, İngiltere,
İtalya, İspanya, Kıbrıs, Slovenya, Yunanistan, Portekiz, Malta, Çek Cumhuriyeti, Estonya, Slovak
Cumhuriyeti, Litvanya, Letonya, Polonya, Hırvatistan, Macaristan, Romanya, Bulgaristan) ve Türkiye
açısından Ar-Ge harcamalarının orta gelir tuzağı üzerine etkisi araştırılmıştır. Seçilen ülke grubu için
2000-2014 dönemi için panel veri analizi kullanılarak Westerlund Bootstrap, Westerlund DurbinHausman
eşbütünleşme ve Hacker ve Hatemi-J bootstrap nedensellik testi yöntemleriyle kişi başına
düşen gelir, Ar-Ge harcamaları ve tasarruflar arasındaki ilişki incelenmiştir. Elde edilen bulgulara
göre söz konusu değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki bulunmuştur. Kişi başına düşen gelir Arge
harcamalarının nedeni çıkmış iken, Ar-Ge harcamalarından kişi başına düşen gelire doğru ise
doğrudan bir nedensellik ilişkisi yoktur. Ayrıca diğer değişkenler arasında da başka bir nedensellik
ilişkisi bulunamamıştır. 

References

  • ADEWUYI, A. O., BANKOLE, A. S. & AROWOMO, D. F., 2010, What Determines Savings In The Economic Community Of West African State (ECOWAS)?, Journal of Monetary and Economic Integration, 10(2), 71-99.
  • AGENOR, P. R., 2015, Caught in The Middle? The Economics of Middle Income Traps, FERDI Working Paper 142, 1-45.
  • AGRAWAL, P., 2001, The Relationship Between Savings and Growth: Cointegration and Causality Evidence From Asia, Applied Economics, 33(4), 499-513.
  • AGRAWAL, P., SAHOO, P. and DASH, R. K., 2010, Savings Behavior in India: Cointegration and Causality Evidence, Singapore Econ. Review, 55(02).
  • ALTINTAŞ, H. ve MERCAN, M., 2015, Ar-Ge Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: OECD Ülkeleri Üzerine Yatay Kesit Bağımlılığı Altında Panel Eşbütünleşme Analizi, Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 70(2), 345-376.
  • ATİK, H., 2015, Türkiye İçin Orta Gelir Tuzağından Kurtuluş Önerileri, Sosyoekonomi, 23(26), 165-174.
  • BALTAGI, B. H., 2013, Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, Fifth Edition. United Kingdom: John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
  • BINGWEN, Z., 2011, The Middle Income Trap and China’s Path to Development: International Experiences and Lessons, China Economist, 6(3), 16-27.
  • BREUSCH, T. S. and PAGAN, A. R., 1980, The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Application to Model Specifications in Econometrics. Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-53.
  • EICHENGREEN, B., PARK, D. and SHIN K., 2013, Growth Slowdowns Redux: New Evidence on the Middle-Income Trap, National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No. 18673.
  • ENER, M. ve KARANFİL, M., 2015, Türkiye Ekonomisinde Tasarruf Açığının Orta Gelir Tuzağı Üzerine Etkisi, Eskişehir Osman Gazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 10(2), 31-46.
  • FELIPE, J., ABDON, A. and KUMAR, U., 2012, Tracking the Middle-Income Trap: What Is It, Who Is in It, and Why?, Levy Economics Institute, Working Paper No. 715.
  • FREIRE-SERÉN, M. J., 1999, Aggregate R&D Expenditure and Endogenous Economic Growth, http://pareto.uab.es/wp/1999/43699.pdf. (01.03.2016).
  • GÜLMEZ, A. Ve YARDIMCIOĞLU, F., (2012), OECD Ülkelerinde Ar-Ge Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Panel Eşbütünleşme ve Panel Nedensellik Analizi (1990-2010), Maliye Dergisi, Sayı 163, 335-353.
  • HACKER, R. S. and HATEMI-J, A., 2006, Test for Causality Between Integrated Variables Using Asymptotic and Bootstrap Distributions: Theory and Application, Applied Economics, 38, 1489-1500.
  • HSIAO, C., 2003, Analysis of Panel Data, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • JITSUCHON, S., 2012, Thailand in A Middle Income Trap, TDRI Quarterly Review, 27(2), 13-20.
  • KANCHOOCHAT, V. and INTARAKUMNERD, P., 2014, Tigers Trapped: Tracing the Middle-Income Trap Through The East and Southeast Asian Experience, Berlin Working Papers on Money, Finance, Trade and Development. fileadmin/working_paper_series/wp_04_2014_Kanchoochat_Tiger_Trapped (11.02.2016).
  • KASENDA, D., 2014, Can Asian Developing Countries Stuck in A ‘’Middle Income Trap’’ Learn From South Korea’s Economic Development Experience?, Jakarta Indonesia12720.
  • KHARAS, H. and KOHLI, H., 2011, What is the Middle Income Trap, Why Do Countries Fall into it, and How Can it Be Avoided?, Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, 3(3), 281-289.
  • KOÇAK, E. ve BULUT, Ü., 2014, Orta Gelir Tuzağı: Teorik Çerçeve, Ampirik Yaklaşımlar ve Türkiye Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Uygulama, Maliye Dergisi, 167, 1-21.
  • KORKMAZ, S., 2014, Türkiye’de Ar-Ge Yatırımları ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin VAR Modeli İle Analizi, Journal of Yaşar University, 20(5), 3320-3330.
  • OHNO, K., 2009, The Middle-income Trap, Implications for Industrialization Strategies in East Asia and Africa, GRIPS Development Forum, http://www.grips.ac.jp/forum-e/,02.01.2016.
  • PESARAN, M. H., 2004, General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels, University of Cambridge & USC.
  • PESARAN, M. H., 2007, A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in The Presence of Cross-Section Dependence, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22, 265-312.
  • PESARAN, M. H. and YAMAGATA, T., 2008, Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels, Journal of Econometrics, 142, 50-93.
  • ROBERTSON, E. P. and Ye L., 2013, On the Existence of a Middle Income Trap, Economics Discussion, Working Papers No. 13-12.
  • SECK, A., 2012, International technology Diffusion and Economic Growth: Explaining the Spillover Benefits to Developing Countries, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 23: 437– 451.
  • SUNGUR, O., AYDIN, H. İ. ve EREN, M. V., (2016), Türkiye’de Ar-Ge, İnovasyon, İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Asimetrik Nedensellik Analizi, SDÜ İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 21(1), 173-192.
  • TABAN, S. ve ŞENGÜR, M., (2014), Türkiye’de Ar-Ge ve Ekonomik Büyüme, AİBÜ Sosyal Bilimler Enstitü Dergisi, 14(1), 355-376.
  • THO, T. W., 2013, The Middle-Income Trap: Issues for Members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, VNU Journal of Economics and Business, 29(2), 107-128.
  • YENTÜRK, N., ULENGİN, B. ve ÇİMENOĞLU, A., 2009, An Analysis of the Interaction Among Savings Investments and Growth in Turkey, Applied Economics, 41, 739-751.
  • WESTERLUND, J. and EDGERTON, D. L., 2007, A Panel Bootstrap Cointegration Test, Economics Letters, 97, 185-190.
  • WESTERLUND, J., 2008, Panel Cointegration Test of The Fisher Effect, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 23, 193-233.
  • WOO, W.T., 2012, China Meets the Middle-Income Trap: The Large Potholes in The Road to Catching-up. Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, 10(4), 313-336.
  • WORLD BANK, 2016, World Development Indicators, http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=world-developmentindicators, (Erişim Tarihi: 10 Şubat 2016).
There are 36 citations in total.

Details

Journal Section Articles
Authors

Muhammed Karanfil

Publication Date October 31, 2016
Published in Issue Year 2016 Volume: 3 Issue: 4

Cite

APA Karanfil, M. (2016). AR-GE HARCAMALARININ ORTA GELİR TUZAĞI ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ: AVRUPA BİRLİĞİ VE TÜRKİYE İÇİN PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ. Journal of Life Economics, 3(4), 219-234. https://doi.org/10.15637/jlecon.146

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