Maden Potansiyeli Tahmin Yöntemlerine Genel Bir Bakış

Year 2025, Volume: 49 Issue: 1, 63 - 88, 11.06.2025

Yusuf Ziya Özkan

Abstract

Maden bulunabilirlik analizleri, maden aramalarını buluş şansı en yüksek sahalara yönlendirerek başarı oranını artırır ve maliyetleri düşürür. Geleneksel analizlerin öznelliği, 1960'lardan itibaren istatistiksel yöntemlerin kullanımıyla aşılmıştır. 1980'lerde Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemleri (CBS) teknolojisinin gelişimi, 2000'lerde makine öğrenimi ve veri bilimi yenilikleri, süreci daha nesnel ve etkili hâle getirmiştir. Bu analizler, bilgi odaklı ve veri odaklı olmak üzere iki ana yöntemle gerçekleştirilir. Bilgi odaklı sistemler, uzman görüşlerini taklit ederek yatak modeli veya mineral sistem yaklaşımlarına dayanır. Kanıt ağırlıkları yöntemi, bu sistemlerin en yaygın kullanılanıdır. CBS ile yer bilimi verileri birleştirilerek pozitif ve negatif ağırlıklar hesaplanır. Bayes teoremi kullanılarak olasılıklar güncellenir. ÇÖKA (Çok Ölçütlü Karar Verme Analizi), Bulanık Mantık gibi yöntemler de bilgi odaklı yaklaşımlar arasında yer alır. Veri odaklı sistemler, belirli bir model veya hipotez olmadan doğrudan verilerden öğrenir. İstatistiksel yöntemlerin yanı sıra, makine öğrenimi algoritmaları (destek vektör makineleri, yapay sinir ağları, karar ağaçları) karmaşık veri setlerindeki örüntüleri belirlemede güçlüdür. Bu yöntemler, arama süreçlerini daha sistematik ve nesnel tahmine dayalı hâle getirir. Ancak, başarıları veri kalitesine ve seçilen modellerin etkinliğine bağlıdır. Bu nedenle, doğru verilerin toplanması ve analiz süreçlerinin optimize edilmesi büyük önem taşır.

Keywords

Maden Bulunabilirlik Analizi , Bilgi Odaklı Yöntemler , Veri Odaklı Yaklaşımlar , Kanıt Ağırlıkları , Makine Öğrenimi , Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemleri (CBS)

A Review of Mineral Potential Estimation Methods

Abstract

Mining prospectivity analyses enhance success rates and reduce costs by directing exploration efforts toward areas with the highest discovery potential. The subjectivity of traditional analysis has been addressed since the 1960s through the use of statistical techniques. The development of geographic information systems (GIS) technology in the 1980s and advancements in machine learning and data science in the 2000s have made the process more objective and effective. These analyses are conducted using two main approaches: knowledge-driven and data-driven methods. Knowledge-driven systems mimic expert reasoning and rely on deposit models or mineral system approaches. The weight-of-evidence method is the most commonly used among these systems. GIS is used to integrate geoscientific data, to calculate positive and negative weights, and to update probabilities using Bayes' theorem. Other knowledge-driven approaches include analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy logic. Data-driven systems learn directly from data without relying on predefined models or hypotheses. In addition to statistical methods (e.g., logistic regression analysis), machine learning algorithms—such as support vector machines, artificial neural networks, and decision trees—are highly effective in identifying patterns within complex datasets. These methods make exploration processes more systematic and predictive. However, their success depends on data quality and the effectiveness of the selected models. Therefore, collecting accurate data and optimizing analytical processes have great importance.

Keywords

Mineral prospectivity analysis , knowledge-driven approaches , data-driven approaches , weights of evidence , machine learning , geographic information systems (GIS)

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