THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES AND RAIL FREIGHT TRANSPORT

Abstract

Purpose- The aim of this study is to determine the relationship between the amount of cargo carried by the railway and economic activities of Turkey, and to contribute to Turkey's determination of the required investment amount by detecting the amount of increase in potential demand of railway transport in our country's progress in achieving the objectives of the 2023 vision.  In addition, the emphasis on railways in the transport process will make a significant contribution to the green supply chain objectives by reducing losses to the environment.

Methodology- In this study, methodology consists of three methods; firstly, the amount of cargo transported by railways and Turkey's trade volume were analyzed by econometric techniques covering the years 1977-2016, and the coefficients were used to forecast cargo transportation by railways in 2023; secondly, the European Union countries that have similar nature with Turkey were tried to be determined by hierarchical clustering analysis; and thirdly, a data envelopment analysis was implemented to these identified countries. Because, the efficient usage of current infrastructure is also important for planning future investment needs.

Findings- As a result of the econometric analysis, a significant positive relationship was found between the variables. A 1% increase in trade volume leads to an increase of about 0.35% in freight loads on rail transport, consequently the increase in the transported cargo was calculated as 85%. According to cluster analysis, Turkey was placed in a group which included United Kingdom, France and Italy, and was the least efficient country in the group considering the results of the data envelopment analysis.

Conclusion- As a result of these analyzes, it was determined that in order to effectively serve the 1.17 trillion-dollar trade volume targeted by our country in 2023, it needed short-term efficiency-enhancing investments and long-term serious infrastructure investments.

Keywords

• Rail freight transport,trade volume,efficiency,investment

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