Model for Retail Price Forecast of Thailand Rice In Plateau State Nigeria

Year 2021, Volume: 4 Issue: 1, 1 - 10, 03.01.2022

Oludare Adedıre

Abstract

Abstract — In this paper, monthly retail prices of imported Thailand rice in Plateau State are analyzed and a model is proposed. Data were collected from major warehouses of businessmen in Plateau State capital and based on the observed pattern in the raw data, time series analysis was employed. Particularly, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) method is used on the data which covered a period of 132 months (January 2007- December 2017). The results from SARIMA (1, 1, 0)(0,1,1) show Lying –Box Q statistics value of 23.265 with p value of 0.107 and stationary R-squared value of 0.717 at 95% confidence bound which are all indicative of adequate fitted model for forecast. Hence the developed model can be used to predict monthly retail prices of Thailand rice in Plateau State Nigeria to aid government policy and enable adequate planning for future changes in price of rice.

Keywords

model, rice, retail, price, forecast

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