The Influence of Heat Analysis on the Hatching Rate of Lucilia sericata (Diptera: Calliphoridae) Eggs Using Polynomial Regression Method

Year 2025, Volume: 8 Issue: 1, 7 - 12

Emre Deymenci , Muhammed Erdem İsenkul , Erdal Polat

Abstract

This study examines the effects of temperature on the hatching rates of Lucilia sericata, a species important for forensic entomology and medical biology. Using a polynomial regression approach, we investigated the relationship between extreme thermal conditions and egg emergence rates to provide insights that could enhance applications in postmortem interval (PMI) estimation and ecological modeling. Eggs were subjected to controlled temperature treatments ranging from $0^\circ\mathrm{C}$ to $41^\circ\mathrm{C}$ at $1^\circ\mathrm{C}$ intervals, maintaining 45% relative humidity. Observations were conducted at 24, 48, and 72-hour intervals, with additional incubation at $30^\circ\mathrm{C}$ for those subjected to extreme temperatures. Findings revealed no larval emergence at temperatures below $10^\circ\mathrm{C}$ or above $40^\circ\mathrm{C}$. However, within a $14^\circ\mathrm{C}$ to $38^\circ\mathrm{C}$ range, hatching rates reached their peak at $28^\circ\mathrm{C}$ (89.7%), indicating optimal developmental conditions. Our polynomial regression model demonstrated a high degree of accuracy ($R^2 > 0.70$) in predicting hatching rates across varying temperatures, thus establishing a predictive framework for forensic and ecological applications. The results emphasize the potential for this thermal modeling approach to enhance forensic entomological practices by providing refined developmental timelines for L. sericata, a species widely used in PMI estimation. The findings also underscore the species’ ecological sensitivity to temperature fluctuations, which may inform future ecological distribution models.

Keywords

Forensic entomology, Larval emergence, Lucilia sericata, Polynomial regression, Temperature effects

Supporting Institution

This research received no specific grant from any funding agency, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.

Thanks

We are also grateful to the staff at the Center for Traditional and Complementary Medicine Practice and Research (Istanbul University-Cerrahpasa) for their assistance in maintaining the Lucilia sericata colony and for providing the technical resources needed to complete this study. Detailed descriptions of the equipment and specific protocols are available upon request for reproducibility purposes.

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