NİJERYA'DA DÖVİZ KURU DALGALANMALARI EKONOMİK BÜYÜMEYİ ETKİLİYOR MU? AMPİRİK KANITLAR

Year 2023, Volume: 11 Issue: 2, 146 - 162, 31.08.2023

İlhan Eroğlu , Ayodeji Mubarak Olayiwola

Abstract

Amaç: Bu çalışma, döviz kurunun Nijerya'nın ekonomik büyümesi üzerindeki etkisini pozitif ve negatif bileşenlerine ayırarak değerlendirmeyi amaçlamıştır.
Yöntem: Döviz kurunun Döviz kurunun ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisini ayrıştırmak için doğrusal olmayan bir ARDL modeli kullanılmıştır. Ayrıca, naira değerindeki değişikliklerin etkilerini ölçmek için asimetrik etkiler testi kullanılmıştır.
Bulgular: Kısa vadede, Naira ABD doları karşısında değer kaybettiğinde ekonomik büyüme düşme eğilimi gösterirken, değer kazandığında ekonomik büyüme artma eğilimi göstermektedir. Uzun vadede ise bu etkiler ters yönde işlemektedir. Buna ek olarak, asimetrik etkiler için yapılan test, Naira'nın değer kazanmasının ekonomik büyümeyi etkileme şeklinin değer kaybetmesinden önemli ölçüde farklı olduğunu göstermektedir.
Sonuçlar: Bu bulgulardan çıkan genel sonuç, Nijerya'da döviz kurunun ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisinin doğrusal olmadığıdır. Sonuçlardan ayrıca, bilgi stokunun Nijerya ekonomisinin büyümesine fazla katkıda bulunmadığı da anlaşılmaktadır. Nijerya'daki düşük eğitim finansmanı ve kayıt oranı göz önüne alındığında bu şaşırtıcı değildir. Dolayısıyla, bu araştırmada toplanan kanıtlar, Nijerya'nın ekonomik büyümesini önemli ölçüde desteklemek için sermaye stokunu yeterince kullanmıyor olabileceğini göstermektedir.

Keywords

Exchange Rate, Nigeria, Economic Growth, ARDL Model

DO EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS EFFECT ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA? EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE

Abstract

Aim: This study aimed at assessing the impact of exchange rate on Nigeria's economic growth by decomposing it into positive and negative components.
Method: A non-linear ARDL model was used to decompose the effect of exchange rate on economic growth. Also, asymmetric effects test was used to measure the effects of changes in the value of the naira.
Findings: In the short run, when the Naira depreciates against the US dollar, economic growth tends to decline, while when it appreciates, economic growth tends to increase. In the long run, these effects work in the opposite direction. In addition, the test for asymmetric effects shows that the way in which the appreciation of the naira affects economic growth differs significantly from that of its depreciation
Conclusions: The general conclusion from these findings is that the effect of exchange rate on economic growth in Nigeria is non-linear. It is also clear from the results that the stock of knowledge does not contribute much to the growth of the Nigerian economy. This is not surprising given the low education financing and enrolment rate in Nigeria. Therefore, the evidence gathered in this research suggests that Nigeria may be underutilising its capital stock to significantly support its economic growth.

Keywords

Exchange Rate, Nigeria, Economic Growth, ARDL Model

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