Petrol Fiyatları ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin NARDL Modeli ile İncelenmesi: Türkiye Örneği

Abstract

Günümüzde ürünlerin imalatında kullanılan ana hammaddelerden birinin ham petrol olması nedeniyle, bu önemli kaynağın fiyatlarındaki dalgalanmalar, nihai ürünlere girdi maliyetleri olarak yansımaktadır. Özellikle son yıllarda yaşanan ham petrol fiyatlarındaki artış ve dalgalanmaların ekonomik büyüme üzerinde olan etkisinin ne düzeyde olduğu da büyük önem taşımaktadır. Petrole olan bağımlılığın artmasıyla birlikte bir kısır döngüye dönüşen bu sürecin etkileri, kuşkusuz tüm dünya ekonomileri gibi Türkiye ekonomisinde de hissedilmektedir. Petrol fiyatlarındaki artış veya düşüşlerin küresel ekonomi üzerindeki öneminden yola çıkarak, bu çalışmada petrol fiyatları ile Türkiye ekonomisinin büyümesi arasındaki eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin ampirik olarak araştırılması amaçlanmıştır. Bu sebeple, Türkiye'de 1976-2021 döneminde uzun dönem bütünleşmeyi incelemek için Doğrusal Olmayan ARDL (NARDL) modeli kullanılmıştır. Çalışmanın sonuçları, ham petrol fiyatlarındaki pozitif ve negatif şokların Türkiye'de Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıla üzerinde asimetrik bir etkiye sahip olduğuna işaret etmektedir. Çalışmadan elde edilen bulgular, akademisyenlere, profesyonellere ve karar vericilere politika alanında tavsiyelerde bulunmak açısından önemlidir. Ham petrol fiyatlarının hem yurt içinde hem de dünyada istikrarlı bir ekonomik büyüme sürecinde oynadığı rolün daha iyi anlaşılması ile Türkiye'nin bu alandaki politikalarının irdelenmesi ve gerekli politika değişikliklerin yapılması önerilmektedir.

Keywords

• Petrol fiyatları
• Ekonomik büyüme
• NARDL modeli
• Türkiye

Using the NARDL Model to Examine the Relationship between Oil Prices and Economic Growth: The Case of Turkey

Abstract

Crude oil is one of the main raw resources used to produce commodities today; therefore, changes in the price of this essential resource are reflected as input costs in the final costs of the products. The impact of fluctuating crude oil prices on economic growth, particularly in recent years, is significant. Actually, fluctuations in the price of oil can have an impact on both the global economy's structure and the economy of Turkey. Given the significance of either rising or falling oil prices to the global economy, the aim of this paper is to investigate and determine the co-integration relationship between oil prices and economic growth in the Turkish economy. The nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model was employed in order to evaluate the long-term integration of the Turkish economy throughout the years 1976–2021. The findings demonstrate that Turkey’s GDP is asymmetrically affected by both positive and negative shocks to crude oil prices. This research’s conclusions are essential for counseling academics, professionals, and policymakers. It is recommended that Turkey reevaluate its policies in this area and make any necessary modifications in light of a deeper understanding of the role that crude oil prices play in a process of stable economic growth both inside the country and outside the world.

Keywords

• Oil price
• economic growth
• NARDL model
• Turkey.

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