The Fiscal Impact of E-Commerce in Türkiye: Evidence from the COVID-19 and Post-Pandemic Period

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of e-commerce expenditures on central government tax revenues in Türkiye during the period of the COVID-19 pandemic, employing quarterly data covering 2019:Q4–2025:Q2. Using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimation technique, the results demonstrate that e-commerce expenditures exert a positive and statistically significant effect on tax revenues. Moreover, the Granger causality analysis reveals a unidirectional causal link running from e-commerce expenditures to tax revenues, with no feedback effect in the opposite direction. These findings emphasise the robustness of e-commerce as an alternative economic mechanism during times of crisis and indicate that its fiscal relevance is expected to expand further alongside the advancement of digital transformation. This paper recommends that policymakers take concrete steps to strengthen digital infrastructure, reduce informality, improve e-commerce taxation frameworks, and support the digital transformation of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). These findings highlight the growing fiscal importance of the digital economy in supporting sustainable and stable public revenues.

Keywords

• E-commerce
• Tax Revenues
• COVID-19
• Digital Transformation
• Türkiye

Türkiye’de E-Ticaretin Mali Etkisi: COVID-19 Salgını ve Sonrası Üzerine Bir Analiz

Abstract

Bu çalışma, 2019:Ç4–2025:Ç2 dönemini kapsayan üç aylık verileri kullanarak, COVID-19 pandemisi ve sonrası süreçte Türkiye'de e-ticaret harcamalarının merkezi yönetim vergi gelirleri üzerindeki etkisini incelemektedir. En Küçük Kareler (EKK) tahmin yöntemiyle elde edilen bulgular, e-ticaret harcamalarının vergi gelirleri üzerinde pozitif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Ayrıca, Granger nedensellik testi sonuçları, e-ticaret harcamalarından vergi gelirlerine doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğunu, buna karşılık tersi yönde bir etki olmadığını ortaya koymaktadır. Bulgular, kriz dönemlerinde alternatif bir ekonomik mekanizma olarak e-ticaretin sağlamlığını vurgulamakta ve dijital dönüşüm ilerledikçe mali öneminin artacağını göstermektedir. Bu çalışma, politika yapıcılara dijital altyapının güçlendirilmesi, kayıt dışılığın azaltılması, e-ticaret vergilendirme çerçevelerinin iyileştirilmesi ve küçük ve orta ölçekli işletmelerin (KOBİ’lerin) dijital dönüşümünün desteklenmesi yönünde adımlar atılmasını önermektedir. Bu bulgular, dijital ekonominin sürdürülebilir ve istikrarlı kamu gelirlerini desteklemedeki artan mali önemini ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

• E-ticaret
• Vergi Gelirleri
• COVID-19
• Dijital Dönüşüm
• Türkiye

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